I thought Nate Silver was supposed to be smart. It appears he doesn't understand the most basic aspects of probability

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2 years ago 10/27/2022 2:48pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight became famous as he once predicted all 50 states in a presidential election right. ESPN gave him a ton of money but it now seems that the site is never right.
I was looking at it this morning.
He says there is a 46% chance the GOP takes the Senate. He says there is an 82% chance they win the House.
So what are the odds that the GOP also takes the House and the Senate?
He says it's also 46%. WHAT?
That makes no sense. I know the two aren't totally independent events but still that's crazy. It would have to be less than 46%.
The way I read that is he thinks there's a 100% chance the GOP takes the hosue but won't admit it.
Thougths?
Link:ibb.co/kDThxy2

You aren’t very bright. They are not just “not totally independent”, they are quite dependent.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 2:51pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight became famous as he once predicted all 50 states in a presidential election right.

Is this really why he became famous? I predicted all 50 states correctly in 2020. Maybe I should start posting my predictions on the internet.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 2:55pm EDT

re: Runningart2004

Runningart2004 wrote:
As always, it is all about turn out. When more people turn out in any election DEMS win.
Alan

This is the conventional wisdom, but it doesn't always hold on a state or regional level, which these races are obviously. Texas had massive turnout in the 2020 election, but it did not move blue as a result: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/04/texas-voter-turnout-democrats/

I'd tend to go with the conventional wisdom that Dems will hold the Senate narrowly and lose the House. With average candidates Rs would win control of the Senate this cycle by a few seats.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 2:58pm EDT

re: Runningart2004

Runningart2004 wrote:
JustMe22 wrote:
This is incredibly tough. Silver cracked the code in 2008, and his reputation today largely rests on his correct prediction that Obama would win. Since 2016, though, he's been off, and sometimes horribly so. The clowns on PredictIt are having a field day with his last name.
But...I think it's important to take a step back and remember that his prediction here is based on a model that he has designed, and that we don't know the specifics of that model. A lot of it clearly rests on polling, and...well...the polls have been off for several election cycles. So much so that RealClearPolitics has taken the unprecedented step of *adjusting* polls based on previous error (which I think is highly dubious) to get the likely outcome.
I don't think his model accounts for variables that matter to the average American (inflation, esp. the cost of gas) and he has a clear blindspot for the culture wars. Culture war issues have turned every election post-2016 into something like a collective LARP of "Gangs of New York" where opposing ideologies duke it out to see "who holds sway over the Five Points."
Video:youtu.be/ADmX9eMEV9U
Lastly, he seems to be defining his overall prediction on "possible outcomes" and tallying the number of those outcomes to figure out who is favored. So...in what world is a 56 seat Dem senate even a possible outcome? Or any outcome that has more than 50 Dem seats, for that matter.
As always, it is all about turn out. When more people turn out in any election DEMS win.
Alan

Possible, but I have a lot of healthy skepticism toward any attempt to read the tea leaves. Just curious, why do you think Dems will win if turnout is high?

2 years ago 10/27/2022 2:59pm EDT

re: Tar Heel Runner

For the record, 538 does not do polling. They aggregate polling and give odds on outcomes based on that.

While people criticize 528 for "getting it wrong" on Trump, the fact is that they gave him better odds (29%) on election day than anyone else. Others gave him 15%, 8%... even 2%.

If you say that something will happen nearly a third of the time and then it happens, you didn't get it so horribly wrong, really. You said it might happen, and then it did.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 3:08pm EDT

re: rojo

Rojo, there is 100% probability that Nate Silver is smarter than you

2 years ago 10/27/2022 3:09pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
.
Thougths?

Our thoughts are that you are an idiot

2 years ago 10/27/2022 3:12pm EDT

re: Dunning-Kruger Town

Dunning-Kruger Town wrote:
What is the deal with Rojo thinking he knows better than everyone else on almost every subject? Narcissism? Mania? Frontal lobotomy?

Affluenza, Narcissim, and developmental disorder. Just watch one of the LetsRun podcast videos. Within 10 seconds of Rojo speaking you know that something is wrong

C'mon rojo. Leave the politics to your alternate usernames. This is a terrible look for you and this site in general.

Nate Silver is smart, Rojo is not wrote:
Rojo, there is 100% probability that Nate Silver is smarter than you

Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.

But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?

PS. The whole reason I started this thread was even if he thinks the Senate is 98% correlated with the House, it would drop his percentage by 1%. He's not dropping it at all. So I guess in his mind it's at least 99% correlated.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 4:08pm EDT

re: Rust Never Sleeps

Rust Never Sleeps wrote:
Sounds like overall site traffic and ad revenues are down. How to fix? Click bait and controversy!

BroJos never used to post. Now.......12 threads on the front page started by them. And no moderating their threads.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 4:22pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight became famous as he once predicted all 50 states in a presidential election right. ESPN gave him a ton of money but it now seems that the site is never right.
I was looking at it this morning.
He says there is a 46% chance the GOP takes the Senate. He says there is an 82% chance they win the House.
So what are the odds that the GOP also takes the House and the Senate?
He says it's also 46%. WHAT?
That makes no sense. I know the two aren't totally independent events but still that's crazy. It would have to be less than 46%.
The way I read that is he thinks there's a 100% chance the GOP takes the hosue but won't admit it.
Thougths?
Link:ibb.co/kDThxy2

Silver is a phony created by media hype.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 4:37pm EDT

re: carmine9

The best pollster in the biz is Rich Baris.

Tweets by Peoples_Pundit

Tweet:twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit

Pay no attention to 538.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 4:53pm EDT

re: Tar Heel Runner

Tar Heel Runner wrote:
rojo wrote:
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight became famous as he once predicted all 50 states in a presidential election right.
Is this really why he became famous? I predicted all 50 states correctly in 2020. Maybe I should start posting my predictions on the internet.

I predicted Trump would win the GOP nomination pretty early on in 2016.

AS did anyone who could count the delegates from the 1st few primaries and could read polls.

Silver was steadfast that Trump would not win right to the bitter end

2 years ago 10/27/2022 5:04pm EDT

re: rojo

Silver is an idiot and hasn't been accurate in more than a decade

2 years ago 10/27/2022 5:08pm EDT

re: A. Moran

A. Moran wrote:
Rust Never Sleeps wrote:
Sounds like overall site traffic and ad revenues are down. How to fix? Click bait and controversy!
BroJos never used to post. Now.......12 threads on the front page started by them. And no moderating their threads.

Just like that Socktuber channel, they are on a downhill slide these days.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 5:11pm EDT

re: RossiCheated

RossiCheated wrote:
For the record, 538 does not do polling. They aggregate polling and give odds on outcomes based on that.
While people criticize 528 for "getting it wrong" on Trump, the fact is that they gave him better odds (29%) on election day than anyone else. Others gave him 15%, 8%... even 2%.
The official BS cover for Silver.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 5:40pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?

WTF are you talking about?

2 years ago 10/27/2022 6:04pm EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
Nate Silver is smart, Rojo is not wrote:
Rojo, there is 100% probability that Nate Silver is smarter than you
Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?

I gave you the benefit of the doubt on your OP post, but right here, you outed yourself as someone who has no idea what being smart even is, leave alone probability and stats.

2 years ago 10/27/2022 6:10pm EDT

re: huhuh

huhuh wrote:
rojo wrote:
Close to 100% that he's better at stats than me although my lone A+ at Princeton was in stats.
But overall intelligence? I'd put it way less than 100%. Does he believe a man can give birth?
I gave you the benefit of the doubt on your OP post, but right here, you outed yourself as someone who has no idea what being smart even is, leave alone probability and stats.

Nice sentence

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I thought Nate Silver was supposed to be smart. It appears he doesn't understand the most basic aspects of probability

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