But I would not be shocked if, instead of running one of those races, he decides to do another sub-2:00 attempt that is set up like Breaking2 or the INEOS 1:59 Challenge -- except this time, it's record-eligible. But they'd need to find someone to fund it, and they'd need to find 2-3 guys capable of staying with Kipchoge through 30-35 kilometers. You'd have to pay them handsomely because anyone who can do that would be among the favorites to win a major half/full marathon next spring.
This is very likely! I don't it would be a problem paying 2-3 guys 50k each — maybe that's not enough? But INEOS could pay way more. They pay cyclists way more.
I was thinking something closer to 150k, if not more. These pacers are missing out on appearance fees, potential prize money and contract bonuses (that could have stacking bonuses implemented) from a full marathon. That could add up to several 100k all included. Especially if they would have won or won the WMM bonus (well which got significantly reduced recently). If Kipchoge is motivated enough, INEOS will find the money though.
I think Kiplimo and Kandie are the best candadites, but only with specfic training. If the attempt is right after track season and they are in 5k/10k shape or coming off a break, they aren't even in top HM form to begin with so asking for pacing for 30k-35k would be a stretch. Other than that maybe Tamirat Tola. Maybe Cheptegai for 25k.
It’s pretty obvious what he’ll do in 2023 and 2024: more pancake flat fast marathons in ideal weather conditions with pacers and an assistant handing him his drink, then the Olympics. Yawn.
The more interesting question is what will he do from 2025-2028 when he is (officially) in his 40s. How much lower than 2:00 will he go as a masters runner? How many more times will he break the world record?
And the biggest question of all: How much more can he stretch people’s belief that he is clean while dozens of other Kenyan marathoners get caught for doping???
Kipchoge will run where he is paid the most money to show up, and the most incentives for the time bonuses. This is still his livelihood and profession, which is a closing window. If he runs NY or Boston, it'll be because they were willing to pay him more. Otherwise, it will be sometime years from now when he is no longer in contention to win/gaining significant appearance fees and is just checking off the bucket list.
Boston and NYC won't pay up. Kipchoge says "No biggie, I'm gone."
London in April
Great North Run (half vs Kiplimo & Kandie) in Sep
Valencia in Dec
He doesn't do half marathons anymore, not even tune-ups, which I always found interesting. I don't think this is that bold of a take, but I feel like if he raced Kiplimo and Kandie in top HM form (57:31, 57:32 respectively), he would lose. I think his HM is ~58:00-58:15 based on his 2:01:09. He's getting up there in age, so I have to think he's more a pure marathoner now. I wouldn't doubt it if he was in 57:30 shape at some point in his career though.
You talk as though age isn't a factor now in the career of a runner approaching 40. We might wonder why.
Time for Berlin Marathon to step up: let's get the best pacer squad in history to help Kipchoge a bit: Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kamowror, and Kandie.
For Cheptegei, his track season would be long over by then. For the other three, it would be a good workout to prepare for their own fall races.
Those four might all have a chance at marathon WR later on, so it's actually a good idea to feel in person what it takes to run a WR.
Too good to be true though...
Probably so, but Valencia could state its intent of supplanting Boston & NYC in the marathon major pecking order and match funds for such a set-up--and throw in a tasty side nosh: Rupp vs Mantz AR scrap.
Coe had no need to retire. He could have just gone to Kenya and he would have been fine.
This is true. Coe could probably have won his third 1500m gold in Barcelona if he had gone on the EPO instead of retiring. He looked to still be in 3:30/3:31 shape in 89, so might have held on to 3:33/34 shape for Barcelona at age 36, and EPO would have given him 5 or 6 seconds, so too good for Cacho and Morceli.
Coe is not black. That is all we need to know to recognize that he was clean. No need to test the whites. The whites are morally superior. And athletically too. And smarter.
You are a white supremacist Coevett. You are the kind of guy I would NEVER associate with. EVER.
He doesn't do half marathons anymore, not even tune-ups, which I always found interesting. I don't think this is that bold of a take, but I feel like if he raced Kiplimo and Kandie in top HM form (57:31, 57:32 respectively), he would lose. I think his HM is ~58:00-58:15 based on his 2:01:09. He's getting up there in age, so I have to think he's more a pure marathoner now. I wouldn't doubt it if he was in 57:30 shape at some point in his career though.
You talk as though age isn't a factor now in the career of a runner approaching 40. We might wonder why.
You talk as though you are an idiot. No one wonders why.
I completely agree with you. April and Berlin next year, then NYC and Olympics in the following year, and Boston as a farewell race. For 2023: London: 2:03:31 Berlin: 2:01:32
2024: Olympics: 2:08:36, gold, with Amos Kirpruto and Tamirat Tola in a close finish (relative to other marathons). NYC: 2:04:45 course record and masters 40 record on his birthday.
2025: Boston, 2:05:29. Is not leading for most of the race but makes a decisive breakthrough near the end, clinching the win in his last race.
The only concern to do Valencia seems to be the timing. If he messes up then he might need to do a spring marathon to show his fitness for Paris (like what he did before Tokyo Olympics), but the turnaround from Valencia would be a lot shorter than that of Berlin.
Boston and NYC won't pay up. Kipchoge says "No biggie, I'm gone."
London in April
Great North Run (half vs Kiplimo & Kandie) in Sep
Valencia in Dec
I'm Kipchoge's most ardent supporter, but I think he gets smoked if he does the GNR. Fast course, fast competition, and, from recent evidence, the half marathon continues to be a grey area of legitimate talent and dilution by way of doping
As much as I would love for him to win 3 straight gold's in the Olympics, the odds are against Eluid. None of the sport Elite distance legends succeeded in winning 3 world's or Olympics in the same event. Haile G., Tirunesh Dibaba, David Rudisha, and Kenenisa Bekele all failed in securing 3 straight gold's in one event and almost all of them failed due to injury plagued led up or during the Olympic year.
All 4 were younger then Eluid will be when go goes for his 3rd Olympic marathon title. Best of luck to the marathon G.O.A.T.
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