Is there a precedent for redshirting a top 5 recruit and it paying off? I can't recall any since the class of 2008 perked my interest (all of the big names-- Fernandez, Derrick, Puskedra, Mecheso, Estrada, Lowe, Hill -- competed), but I hadn't paid as much attention to D1 in the 90s and early 00s.
While many of them had good to some of the best NCAA careers, that group underperformed as pros given what their HS and college careers would suggest and Mike Smith (according to him earlier this year) would rather risk this title than Colin's long term development, especially since he isnt a 5k/10k guy most likely. There are athletes who ran NCAA xc their freshman year and had good pro careers (Fisher, Ritz, Cranny)
Is this not the same playbook he had for Nico a few years ago? I seem to remember Nico as a frosh not running in the first few meets. Maybe, and this is pure speculation, coming from such a high-mileage HS program, he wanted to make sure he's not burning out, and just has him on a different timeline for his college debut.
Is this not the same playbook he had for Nico a few years ago? I seem to remember Nico as a frosh not running in the first few meets. Maybe, and this is pure speculation, coming from such a high-mileage HS program, he wanted to make sure he's not burning out, and just has him on a different timeline for his college debut.
Yes, although Nico started at NAU in fall 2020, so it was not a normal year. Smith held Nico out of basically the only fall race they had (at OSU).
Smith likes to make sure the freshmen are adjusting to everything involved with college - altitude, classes, being away from home, eating, sleeping, etc. before throwing them in. If Colin races today, that’s honestly a sign that he is adjusting well, regardless of his placing.
Is this not the same playbook he had for Nico a few years ago? I seem to remember Nico as a frosh not running in the first few meets. Maybe, and this is pure speculation, coming from such a high-mileage HS program, he wanted to make sure he's not burning out, and just has him on a different timeline for his college debut.
Yes, although Nico started at NAU in fall 2020, so it was not a normal year. Smith held Nico out of basically the only fall race they had (at OSU).
Smith likes to make sure the freshmen are adjusting to everything involved with college - altitude, classes, being away from home, eating, sleeping, etc. before throwing them in. If Colin races today, that’s honestly a sign that he is adjusting well, regardless of his placing.
While many of them had good to some of the best NCAA careers, that group underperformed as pros given what their HS and college careers would suggest and Mike Smith (according to him earlier this year) would rather risk this title than Colin's long term development, especially since he isnt a 5k/10k guy most likely. There are athletes who ran NCAA xc their freshman year and had good pro careers (Fisher, Ritz, Cranny)
I know what you mean, but its funny to me to consider the fastest US highschool 5K'er not being a 5K guy
My last paragraph was more about the poor reporting. If Sahlman is banged up, we have no idea.
I of course don't advocate running him injured or sick. But beyond that, is there any other reason to redshirt him, going back to my first question?
Generally I agree with you that it works out better to just let the top freshmen run and not overthink it. Everyone remembers the Matt Withrow debacle in 2004.
Mike Smith has made it clear he likes to lessen the expectations and pressure by not having top recruits run right away. He's right that an early "bad" result can be demoralizing since the level of competition is so much higher. Being 15 seconds off in high school isn't a huge deal, but at the NCAA level that can be a lot of places. Look at Verzbicas and his 62nd place finish or whatever it was at Wisconsin.
But I sort of think things are going to turn out how they turn out regardless of the "long term development argument" that people make all the time on here. Sure, don't over-race or run a kid who's injured, sick, or having legit trouble with the adjustment, but I don't think we should be so scared to let people race.
Sometimes a top freshman races, does really well, and goes on to a great NCAA or beyond career (Grant Fisher, Dathan Ritzenhein, Chris Solinsky, Chris Derrick, Nico Young come to mind).
Sometimes a top freshman races, does really well, and goes on to be incredibly successful but not world-beating (Ben Saarel, Luke Puskedra, Casey Clinger).
Sometimes a top freshman races and it doesn't go well and they never recover (Lukas Verzbicas, German Fernandez).
Sometimes a top freshman doesn't race right away and then they never really develop according to plan anyway (Matt Withrow, Brody Hasty - Hasty has come up clutch at NCAAs for NAU, so no shade here, but I'm guessing he had hoped to be a top-ten guy coming out of HS).
Sometimes a top freshman races right away and isn't outstanding of the bat, but gets better in college (think Cole Sprout, Cooper Teare).
Then you have someone like Alan Webb that's all over the map.
I think what's going to happen is going to happen. A runner's psychological profile is part of their talent level. Although having a coach like Mike Smith that seems to excel in this area is key to consistently doing well in the NCAA.
To add to what you said Bob Kennedy won NCAA Cross as a freshman
Yes, although Nico started at NAU in fall 2020, so it was not a normal year. Smith held Nico out of basically the only fall race they had (at OSU).
Smith likes to make sure the freshmen are adjusting to everything involved with college - altitude, classes, being away from home, eating, sleeping, etc. before throwing them in. If Colin races today, that’s honestly a sign that he is adjusting well, regardless of his placing.
100%
Nobody knows if Nico would have run that fall had it been a normal year.
if Colin can contribute to the team winning NCAA’s, I’d bet he would be running. It’s only a race and not like running a couple 10k’s if you’re not 100% ready is as bad as drinking rat poison.
60th in 23:50.4. Colin decent most of the race, but needed to run his final 1K better. Had he run at least 15 seconds faster (5:50 for even pace) he'd have been top 30.
Not ideal, but also not a disaster for a first race. #3 guy Prosser ran 6:04.3 vs. Sahlman's 6:05.4 and was 33rd. It's Kusche, Quax and Hasty who really had a bad day, running 6:17-6:24 for the last km.
Sahlman's 1:48 800 speed does suggest he'll likely focus on the mile/1500 in the spring, but he still has the potential to be All-American in XC, depending on how healthy he is.