aarick162 wrote:
This isn't very difficult to figure out with a little Excel work and using conservative time conversions for NPHS team. I think most on here are overestimating the disadvantage of NPHS' number 6 and 7 runners vs the Japanese 6 and 7 runners given they would only be running a 3k each. Also keep in mind a marathon is run on the road, which will yield closer to track times than those that are seen on a cross country course.
Leg 1 (10 km): 1. Shu Nagamoto 29:04 vs Leo Young (Estimated 28:45) Differential+19 seconds
Leg 2 (3km): 9. Hasegawa? 8:35 vs Cantu: (Conservative estimate: 8:45)
Differential -10 seconds
Leg 3 (8.1075km): 9. Kanno 24:29 vs Lex Young (Estimated 23:14)
Differential +1 minute 15 seconds
Leg 4 (8.0875 km):1. Yamato Yoshida 24:47 vs Aaron Sahlman (Estimated 23:55 - based on current post-injury fitness)
Differential +52 seconds
Leg 5 (3 km): 1. Shogo Iwane 8:37 vs (Shetty 8:50 - estimate) Differential - 13 seconds
Leg 6 (5 km): 2. Yudai Mizuno 14:40 vs (Doshi - 15:00 - estimate) DIfferential - 20 seconds
Leg 7 (5k) 8. Murakami 15:04 (8) vs (Seymour - 15:00 - estimate) Differential - 4 secondsI have NPHS winning by around 2 minutes. Tried to be conservative when estimating NPHS runners times. Even if Doshi trips and lays on the ground for 20 seconds they still win by a comfortable margin. Last year's NPHS team wins by a even more considerable margin obviously.
I think your numbers are possible. But think about how hard it is to get people to time trial like this. Go look at their 4*1mile and how far off their PRs they were.
