Yeah OK you are likely incorrect. Galen had almost PERFECT pacing in the Rio 10000m as the leaders went through 5000m in 13:33 and Galen was just a few seconds back yet Galen only managed a 27:08.92, which shows that he was unlikely in sub 27 shape as he was pulled along the entire race.
You have to factor in the sweltering humidity in Rio. Like 1/3 of the marathon runners dropped out by mile 18. So Rupp ran a hot 10K than three days later gets bronze in a marathon where many big names called it quits who had not even done the track 10,000.
It was 8 days later though and there is no way Galen ran that 10000m in hot weather. No way.
I'm not going to get in the middle of a C. Mantz v. G. Rupp debate but I understand why C. Mantz is going directly to 1/2 Marathon & Marathon. The elite athletes today from 1500m to 10000m are more similar than dissimilar. If C. Mantz knows splitting 9200m in 25:00 to 25:30 then needing to race sub-1:55 800m is not what he can do, might as well move to 1/2 Marathon and Marathon.
I think it is quite likely that Mantz finishes with a faster marathon PR than Rupp... But I doubt he will be able to match Rupp's marathon resume:
- Olympic Bronze
- Winner in Chicago
- 2x Olympic trials winner
- Winning Prague marathon
- Olympic bronze in shoes few others had, while fading hard to the point where Word would have been third if the marathon was 27 miles
- Chicago, whoop-de-doo
- Might as well ask for credit for winning the JV time trial too
- Prague. Really?
- Rupp and Meb are the only 2 Americans to medal in the Olympic marathon since 1976. I'll be rooting for Mantz to get silver in 2024, but he hasn't done anything on the level of Ritz or Hall, who have 1 global bronze between the two of them.
- Rupp was the first American born Chicago winner since 1982, and the first American since Khannochi (who had already won as a Moroccan and would go on to set a WR) in 2002. Given that the leaders are talking about 2:03 tomorrow, I doubt Mantz is gonna be able to top what Rupp did there.
- Mantz didn't even make it to the start line of the last "JV time trial". Rupp sat on the starting line then crushed the field from 8 miles out. Luckily, they're both trying to make it to the next one, so we'll see if Mantz can start trying to surpass what Rupp's already done, or if Rupp is gonna prove he's still better.
- Mantz has won 0 marathons and is trying to break 2:07:56, Rupp won Prague in 2:06:07. Unless you think Mantz is boutta throw down 2:06:06 tomorrow or win, I don't know why you'd try to discredit Prague to make Mantz look better, because the fact is that Mantz hasn't done anything close to as impressive as Prague. The most impressive thing he's done is come 4th in the 5k at nationals. Rupp outkicked Bernard Lagat in the 5k at nationals.
I've been a fan of Mantz since he crushed everyone at 2020 XC, but trying to knock down Rupp's accomplishments to try to make it seem like Mantz is a better marathoner before he's even raced one is just stupid. You can discredit Rupp's marathon exploits all you want, but the fact is that as good as Mantz is, he's probably not matching what Rupp did. He may end with a faster PR, but a WMM win + an Olympic bronze + 2 Olympic Trials wins is a tough resume to beat. As promising as Mantz is, the deck is still stacked against him. With all of that said, I'm rooting for him to win gold in 2032 after Kipchoge becomes the first person to win gold in 4 different Olympics.
- Olympic bronze in shoes few others had, while fading hard to the point where Word would have been third if the marathon was 27 miles
- Chicago, whoop-de-doo
- Might as well ask for credit for winning the JV time trial too
- Prague. Really?
- Rupp and Meb are the only 2 Americans to medal in the Olympic marathon since 1976. I'll be rooting for Mantz to get silver in 2024, but he hasn't done anything on the level of Ritz or Hall, who have 1 global bronze between the two of them.
- Rupp was the first American born Chicago winner since 1982, and the first American since Khannochi (who had already won as a Moroccan and would go on to set a WR) in 2002. Given that the leaders are talking about 2:03 tomorrow, I doubt Mantz is gonna be able to top what Rupp did there.
- Mantz didn't even make it to the start line of the last "JV time trial". Rupp sat on the starting line then crushed the field from 8 miles out. Luckily, they're both trying to make it to the next one, so we'll see if Mantz can start trying to surpass what Rupp's already done, or if Rupp is gonna prove he's still better.
- Mantz has won 0 marathons and is trying to break 2:07:56, Rupp won Prague in 2:06:07. Unless you think Mantz is boutta throw down 2:06:06 tomorrow or win, I don't know why you'd try to discredit Prague to make Mantz look better, because the fact is that Mantz hasn't done anything close to as impressive as Prague. The most impressive thing he's done is come 4th in the 5k at nationals. Rupp outkicked Bernard Lagat in the 5k at nationals.
I've been a fan of Mantz since he crushed everyone at 2020 XC, but trying to knock down Rupp's accomplishments to try to make it seem like Mantz is a better marathoner before he's even raced one is just stupid. You can discredit Rupp's marathon exploits all you want, but the fact is that as good as Mantz is, he's probably not matching what Rupp did. He may end with a faster PR, but a WMM win + an Olympic bronze + 2 Olympic Trials wins is a tough resume to beat. As promising as Mantz is, the deck is still stacked against him. With all of that said, I'm rooting for him to win gold in 2032 after Kipchoge becomes the first person to win gold in 4 different Olympics.
I'm not going to get in the middle of a C. Mantz v. G. Rupp debate but I understand why C. Mantz is going directly to 1/2 Marathon & Marathon. The elite athletes today from 1500m to 10000m are more similar than dissimilar. If C. Mantz knows splitting 9200m in 25:00 to 25:30 then needing to race sub-1:55 800m is not what he can do, might as well move to 1/2 Marathon and Marathon.
If he wants medals, yeah it is a no brainer. From a money point of view, I am not sure there is much in being a 13:10/27:20 guy compared to being say top American at a marathon/half.
Mantz has to be the most exciting guy to try in a while. We rarely get guys fast enough to be legit 2:08 runners trying it close to their peak. Make a list of guys who have run sub 1330/28:00 with in a year of their debut in the last 20 years. It is a short list.
Now if he turns into a 2:12 or a 2:08 guy is a guessing game. I would have thought Ritz would have been a good marathoner. Dude cramped at 30k almost everytime...
Ritz is actually one of the best marathoners in US history though. From 2007-2013 (except 2011 with no result), his slowest annual result was 2:12:33 and the fastest was 2:07:47 (all before super shoes). He was arguably as fast in the marathon as Rupp, when one considers the shoes Rupp runs in.
While it's possible that Mantz ends his career with a faster marathon PB than Rupp, it'd only be because he will run twice as many to get there.
Rupp will have faster PBs at most all other distances (not 1/2?) and have more medals.
Conner Mantz stinks. He won 2 NCAA titles because he was older than everyone else. He’s moving up to the marathon so quickly because he sucks at track compared to other top Americans and would never make an Olympic team. Marathon is his only chance at relevance. Guys overrated
Ritz is actually one of the best marathoners in US history though. From 2007-2013 (except 2011 with no result), his slowest annual result was 2:12:33 and the fastest was 2:07:47 (all before super shoes). He was arguably as fast in the marathon as Rupp, when one considers the shoes Rupp runs in.
He was a 13 min 5k guy/60min guy who broke 2:10 like 3 times. 2:12:30 is a disappointing time for a guy like that. If he was a marathoner he would have been run 2:06s...
And yes super shoes might have made him a different guy if they would have saved his legs enough so that he didn't cramp constantly...
I agree with all of your points of view. And as far as mental toughness. Just take note of how Rupp started fading after Kipchoge "said something" to him in their last marathon together. If anything his talk should've sparked a fight response in Rupp.
Yeah, you guys are right. Galen is not mentally tough. He cake walked a 2:06 at Chicago last year while running on a herniated disc because he is soft.
Time will tell who is faster and who has the better resume. Right now it is strongly Rupp. Mantz is young and tough.
To me, Mantz looks like is is straining for ever single stride while Rupp floats along until kick time. This may or may not matter, just an observation.
Ritz is actually one of the best marathoners in US history though. From 2007-2013 (except 2011 with no result), his slowest annual result was 2:12:33 and the fastest was 2:07:47 (all before super shoes). He was arguably as fast in the marathon as Rupp, when one considers the shoes Rupp runs in.
Have to strongly disagree on this one.
Ritz ran a solid 2:07 once, then ran under 2:10 1-2 other times (and barely). Only made 1 Olympic team, and never got especially close to winning a major marathon. Certainly not for lack of talent, guts, hard work, etc. I always thought that nobody deserved success more than Ritz, with all he went through with injuries. But the marathon just wasn't for him. Was frustrating to watch him attempt the marathon over and over with mostly mediocre results to show for it. He was much more solid and consistent when racing 10k-half marathon, and cross country.
Maybe that one 2:07:47 is somewhat equivalent to Rupp's best time, given the shoes (who really knows??) but there marathoning careers really aren't close.
Conner Mantz stinks. He won 2 NCAA titles because he was older than everyone else. He’s moving up to the marathon so quickly because he sucks at track compared to other top Americans and would never make an Olympic team. Marathon is his only chance at relevance. Guys overrated
Mantz was the youngest of the 3 on the podium for his last NCAA race. Must have won it because he was younger than everybody else.
By the way, how many marathons did it take Rupp to run what Mantz did today? Was it his 5th? Actually, might have been 6th start. Although many posters believe Mantz to be about Rupp's age or maybe older, if we believe stated ages, Rupp was what, a decade older when he got to the point Mantz already is in his marathon career?
So yes, Mantz will be a better maratgoner than Rupp. Not too hard to predict that.
Galen has never gone out with the chase pack like Connor did today. Galen has always tried to win. Galen’s worst finish in a WMM is 5th. Connor needs to make a big leap forward to get to Galen’s level.