Can't translate shorter races to marathon

Sure, 35 mpw is low for a serious marathon attempt. That said, I bet your biggest problem is going out too fast. Almost everyone makes that mistake. Chill out in the early miles. It should feel TOO easy in the early going.

I disagree. A 40:00 10k indicates sub-3:05 potential. I'm not dealing in absolutes. Most runners have a hard time translating short distance PRs to long distance PRs. If the question is what do people usually run based on their 10k then, sure, it'll be slower than the optimized time. But with the right training OP could convert a 42-mid to 1:34 & 3:16.

What was you monthly mileage for 3 months before the marathon? This is a better indicator of true mileage for lower mileage people.

What was your marathon split time?

How many long runs did you do?

My recommendation is follow a marathon plan from a book. I recommend pfitz. The mid week 18ks will knock you into shape. He has a plan starting at your mileage.

So we agree.

You say a 40:00 10k indicates sub-3:05 potential, but you admit most runners can't translate this short distance PR to an equivalent long distance PR (which is what I meant).

My personal experience, M48.

In 2021, I ran 39:22 and 3:13.

This year, I haven't run a 10k but I don't think it would have been faster than 39:00, but I have run 3:10 this spring and 3:03 this fall.

Do you think a 39:00 10k indicates sub-3 potential ? Asking for a friend.

Yes, 39:00 shape right now makes sub 3 a possibility.

With good training it is possible a 39:00 runner holds 40:30ish 10k pace for a half. That means a 1:25:xx HM is possible. With good training this again makes 2 x 1:29:xx = sub 3 possible.

After all a 2:59 marathon is 91-92 % of 39:00 10k pace. So it might be pushing it, but it is possible.

In addition: With a 39' 10k you will probably gain 10k time from the marathon mileage because at this speeds you usually lack more on the strength side than speed.

When you get into the 38'-range you have a very good shot.

Yes, 39:00 & running ~70-80 miles/week makes sub-3:05 very possible. It's good enough leg speed if you train the strength side of things.

Do you want us to assume you are a male? Gender is as important in time calculations as age and mileage.

42:30 is 2550 seconds. W.r. for 10K on the road, 26:24, 1584 seconds. Marathon w.r. is 2:01.09, 7269 seconds. That is a roughly to a 3:15 Marathon.

Conversions do not mean because a person is able to perform at a particular level on a specific training program, you can train the same and expect equal results.

I am capable with specific training per event sprinting equal performances at 200m and 3000m. I cannot sprint well at 200m on 3000m training and I cannot run 3000m well on 200m training. I run fewer miles per week you run so I am not knocking your mileage per week but you log the mileage of 400m/800m athletes and you are complaining about your Marathon performance.

Don't wanna hijack the thread - but I ran 3:04 (at the time probably worth 39:00 for 10k) running 35 mpw.

Shorter doesn’t always translate to the longer distances

seen tons of good solid runners bank good times at mid d not be able to

step to the longer distances

don’t sweat it too mych

Key workouts on the longer

1. Long runs

2. threshold paces tempos

3. medium long runs

4. mileage

good luck

I use to run 30-35 miles per week with a marathon range of 3:05-3:20 depending on course, once ran a marathon with an average of 10miles per week over 3 month for a not pretty 3:16 (it hurt a lot) so it’s really overall fitness and running economy as well as pacing however I’ve now bump my training up to 50 miles per week and can only ran 3:4x but I am still in my 40’s and bloody Covid gave me recurring bad asthma that impacts me on any fast or long runs. 10k is bad to 38:xx though.

Do 55 now for 10 weeks with a 3 hour long run.

So what? I ran 31 10K on 40 mpw, doesn't mean OP can.

This is correct. Ive read this calculations expecting a 14 minute 5k runner who is barely a local champion to run 28:50 in 10k? Absolutely ridiculous.