zxcvzxvc wrote:
The kid just turned 17 in April and he is obviously not close to physical maturity, yet he's already made huge drops in the past two years. According to the IAAF page, he dropped 6 seconds in the 800m this year, from 1:52 to 1:46 (4 seconds just from May). He's the Euro U18 1500m and 3k champ. He's run 3:43/8:04. This 800m indicates that he should drop that 1500m time by a lot next time out in a faster race. He's also run 13:57 on the track and 14:22 on the roads. So, if you put this in an American context, he'd be just now entering his senior year of high school, as a typical senior turning 18 in the spring of his graduation year; he'd already have the American 800m record; he'd be top ten all-time American hs in the 3k (8:04); he'd be probably top 20 in the 5000m at 13:57; and he'd be right about at 4:01 and with his 800m speed on the verge of going well under 4 in the mile.
He does do the Steve Ovett wave but it's not from watching Steve Ovett videos that there is this amazing resurgence of European talent in the distances. It is the Jakob effect. Belief that they can do it as well as African runners or anyone else is back because of Jakob. For decades, Europeans didn't believe they could do it. The only successes were African-born. So, now they know that genetic pseudo-science is nonsense. It's all about the hard and smart training from an early age. That's why you have Europeans coming out of the wood work at earlier ages, Danish, Norwegians, Dutch, English, Scottish, Irish, Spanish, and the year after Jakob won the Olympics, Jake and Ollie (Aussie, of course) win the big titles, and there are many young guys coming up who are good, just as in Kenya and Ethiopia, and so, the belief is there again and it makes for an exciting time when the winners are unpredictable and come from all over.
Largely correct, except that Jakob clearly modelled his wave from Ovett. Also, the resurgence started before Jakob began winning, for example Max Burgin. And you can hardly credit Jakob entirely for the success of Wightman (who became the first Non-African to win a non sprint DL race while Jakob was in the U16 race the same night), or McSweyn or Hoare, or Kerr.
There are probably a myriad of reasons, including GPS, Strava, Social Media. But the main ones are the ABP and better testing in Africa, and then increasing counter examples, from Nick Willis to the Ingebrigtsens, to the disgusting message that's been pedalled here for the last 20 years that white kids shouldn't even bother because East Africans (and even Moroccans, lol) have some kind of natural genetic advantage. Non African success is bredding further non-African success, as you say, due to confidence and belief.
Let's not kid ourselves, if it wasn't for the ABP and EPO testing, the major races would still be dominated by Moroccans and Kenyans, likely winning in ridiculous sub 3:24 times, and the sport would probably be completely dead at this point.
