There are people who won’t make top 7 for Saratoga but would make FM’s top 7
And yet they will still lose to them. FM is good when it counts, and as long as they return SOMETHING of a team (which they do this year), they will be on that plane to Portland. I’ve seen it happen a million times; every year since NXN was introduced pretty much.
Yeah since the second spot behind Corning will be wide open, FM will take advantage of that and will want the second spot the most out of all teams. They are also looking to have lots of seniors on top this year. They have a strong top 3 in McGinn/Otis/Perry and they always seem to find a really good 4/5 by the end of the season. just like in 2019 when they their 4/5 really stepped up after being on JV the year before.
2020 was the only year they weren’t good, but that’s only because they lost pretty much everyone from varsity except for Geehrer.
But in 2021 they weren’t too bad. I’d say they were #3 in New York. And they only lost 3 seniors from that squad. And their 1-2 are back.
2020 was a weird year so it’s best to just discount it. When you take away the championships, championship teams tend to struggle. I would look at 2017, when they came in rated 5th in the state and finished 2nd at NXN, or 2015, when they also came in rated 5th but still qualified without their #1 returner (Peter Ryan, rated 191 as a junior and an NXN All-American). They return a similar squad this year and honestly I expect them to be very competitive with Corning at the regional meet (where Corning has struggled in the past).
2020 was a weird year so it’s best to just discount it. When you take away the championships, championship teams tend to struggle. I would look at 2017, when they came in rated 5th in the state and finished 2nd at NXN, or 2015, when they also came in rated 5th but still qualified without their #1 returner (Peter Ryan, rated 191 as a junior and an NXN All-American). They return a similar squad this year and honestly I expect them to be very competitive with Corning at the regional meet (where Corning has struggled in the past).
Yeah I was gonna say about that time they reloaded in 2017. But don’t forget that one of the Saratoga guys transferred in that year. But still, that’s only one transfer and lost 3 seniors.
If FM can get a 4/5 up with McGinn/Otis/Perry they can actually be similar to Corning and it will be virtually impossible for any other team to challenge FM. That can happen though. McGinn went from a 17:57 to a 16:19 in a year. This isn’t uncommon at FM.
In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.
Saratoga will beat FM.
FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.
Well you’re right that Perry is not quite on par with his older brother Patrick.
But still, he ran a 10:03 3200, which is pretty close to what McGinn and Otis ran. Even if he won’t be #1 on the team, he will be up there with Otis and McGinn.
Moreover, this is Perry’s senior year so I’m sure he will want to do the best that he can this year. I’m sure his last place finish at NXN 2019 will motivate him to lead his team back and do much better than last place individually.
2020 was a weird year so it’s best to just discount it. When you take away the championships, championship teams tend to struggle. I would look at 2017, when they came in rated 5th in the state and finished 2nd at NXN, or 2015, when they also came in rated 5th but still qualified without their #1 returner (Peter Ryan, rated 191 as a junior and an NXN All-American). They return a similar squad this year and honestly I expect them to be very competitive with Corning at the regional meet (where Corning has struggled in the past).
Yeah I was gonna say about that time they reloaded in 2017. But don’t forget that one of the Saratoga guys transferred in that year. But still, that’s only one transfer and lost 3 seniors.
If FM can get a 4/5 up with McGinn/Otis/Perry they can actually be similar to Corning and it will be virtually impossible for any other team to challenge FM. That can happen though. McGinn went from a 17:57 to a 16:19 in a year. This isn’t uncommon at FM.
It’s actually crazy to think about for FM would do this year if Tyler Ball (ran a 10:17 in the 3200 in 2021 while at FM) still went to FM.
he actually ran a 9:16 3200 last spring. He is in some random weak school in Colorado now.
they would have had an awesome top 4 coming into the season.
Corning Painted-Post Looks Toward Repeat State Championship Possibilities in New YorkBy Doug Binder, DyeStat EditorBoys NXR New York PreviewCorning-Painted Post, after winning the New York Class A cross country title last yea...
There are people who won’t make top 7 for Saratoga but would make FM’s top 7
And yet they will still lose to them. FM is good when it counts, and as long as they return SOMETHING of a team (which they do this year), they will be on that plane to Portland. I’ve seen it happen a million times; every year since NXN was introduced pretty much.
Not saying that Saratoga will be better than fm on the boys side, but one thing to note, is if FM finds only 5 studs this year, all 5 of them better stay healthy cause if 1 person falters so could the whole team. They may need to work on finding a 6th and 7th too.
but they do bring back their 1-2, 6,7, and Perry who is with their 1-2.
track season hasn’t really shown that anyone else has stepped up. But they do have some underclassmen that will hopefully make big jumps.
And yet they will still lose to them. FM is good when it counts, and as long as they return SOMETHING of a team (which they do this year), they will be on that plane to Portland. I’ve seen it happen a million times; every year since NXN was introduced pretty much.
FM has 10 boys on the team apparently based on this roster.
5 seniors
3 juniors
1 soph
1 freshman
crazy
but they do return 4 guys from last year’s team, in addition to Perry who had significant varsity experience including an NXN trip in 2019
Unloading: All buses will turn off Route 31 on to Beacon Light Road and enter by the tennis courts (A) and follow the red line to unload athletes. Buses will unload at the at the at the designated spots green line. Drivers wi...
In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.
Saratoga will beat FM.
FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.
Just my preliminary take, I could be very dead wrong come november...
Class A Boys:
Corning wins and Manlius repeats 2nd, I think Calhoun has a comeback year and takes 3rd. For the individual title I'd say it's a dead heat between Ashton Bange & Peter McMahon. There will be an intense chase pack fighting for third with guys like Solomon Holden Betts, Ethan Green and Logan Schaeffler right in the midst. Should be an exciting race. Manlius guys may also see a boost since VVS is their sectional course.
Class B Boys:
Burnt Hills will win yet again, with Pearl River and Vestal battling it out for second. Westhampton Beach has a strong 1-2 punch but little depth, and Pittsford Mendon got hit too hard by graduation to penetrate the top 3, let alone win their sectional meet (Pittsford Sutherland looking better this year). Maximus Haynia is definitely the favorite to win the individual title, although there is a solid chance Rounds from Burnt Hills takes second and splits Haynia from his teammate Trevor Hayes. Colin Brown & Liam Cody could also contend for top three imo.
Class C Boys:
Teamwise it's a true tossup, gun to my head I'd give it to Fonda-Fultonville, but Irvington and East Aurora will make it tight. I think Sam Ash from Saranac Lake narrowly wins individual title, but Alex Searle and James Tette are definitely in contention, maybe even Nate Lewis on a good day. Will probably see the slowest winning time of all of these races since I don't think any returners from this class had over a 170 speed rating in XC last year.
Class D Boys:
Basically a repeat of last year for the team podium, I'd say Tri-Valley wins but Arkport and maybe even Oakfield Alabama could win it if Tri-Valley falters. Adam Furman is the favorite to win but I'm definitely not counting out Colin Stafford, who ran the same 3200 time as Furman in outdoor. Pierce Young & Roan Kelly will have an epic battle for third I'm sure.
Thoughts on my (Very early) predictions?
So…
for class A looks like Corning looks to be the favorite, but Monroe Woodbury could give them a run for their money.
MW lost their 4-7 from state but found 2 guys to add to their #3. They could challenge Corning this year. Fun fact: one of the guys MW lost has the last name Shetty. Same last name as one of the guys fighting for the seventh spot at Newbury park
Burnt Hills will win yet again, with Pearl River and Vestal battling it out for second. Westhampton Beach has a strong 1-2 punch but little depth, and Pittsford Mendon got hit too hard by graduation to penetrate the top 3, let alone win their sectional meet (Pittsford Sutherland looking better this year). Maximus Haynia is definitely the favorite to win the individual title, although there is a solid chance Rounds from Burnt Hills takes second and splits Haynia from his teammate Trevor Hayes. Colin Brown & Liam Cody could also contend for top three imo.
what happened to Rounds? He’s like 4th on BH at the highest now. At least Windecker is their good #1 and has a solid junior class for next year
The posts in this thread guaranteeing an NXN bid for FM's boys are comedy gold.
Burnt Hills too (on the other NY thread) (though not quite guaranteeing)
This thread was made in the summer. But what’s even funnier is how people thought FM would be competitive with Corning. Loll about that….
But no one had a clue on who was gonna be #2 behind them. That’s why they thought FM would be it because of Aris. And no one had an idea there would be 10 guys only on the team
but it turns out that there are a handful of teams challenging for the #2 spot behind Corning
St Anthony was expected to be in that place. and they were underestimated in the summer. Did people not see their returning speed ratings, track times and depth?
Burnt Hills too (on the other NY thread) (though not quite guaranteeing)
This thread was made in the summer. But what’s even funnier is how people thought FM would be competitive with Corning. Loll about that….
But no one had a clue on who was gonna be #2 behind them. That’s why they thought FM would be it because of Aris. And no one had an idea there would be 10 guys only on the team
but it turns out that there are a handful of teams challenging for the #2 spot behind Corning
St Anthony was expected to be in that place. and they were underestimated in the summer. Did people not see their returning speed ratings, track times and depth?
but MW / Saratoga were not
Well... some people saw Saratoga being a contender. ;)
