Florence was also a fluke.
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Some didn't like what I said about Ethiopia and Uganda?
They are countries with big population (du to the high birth rate in the latest 40 years) and big talents. But they badly manage their talents.
And I followed what their young did in
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THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
In a 5,000, the person who pushes the 4th Kilometer (and before) close to all out invariably serves as a sacrificial lamb and loses. That is unless they are hugely better than the field. It is too grueling an event with margins too thin for an athlete to win crushing the pace like that.
The last athlete capable of it was the GOAT Kenenisa Bekele. He did it in 2008 running 12:57 (7:35 last 3K, 4:57 last 2000, 2:25 last K). The field then was not at this year's level with Eliud Kipchoge (12:50s shape), Edwin Soi (12:55 shape), and then a few 13-flat type guys. Bekele was in world record shape and at the peak of his powers (8:04i, 26:25 10K, 10 second victory at the Golden League Final).
Good as Cheptegei is, he is at most 5-15 seconds better in a time trial than a large group including Jakob, Kimeli, Krop, Barega, Kejelcha, Grant, Mo Ahmed and go on down the line. So no one athlete is going to do it alone. After Oscar Chelimo won the heat, there's no way they could ask him to be a sacrificial lamb. The Kenyan coaches might have ideas of pushing it faster, but Krop knew that the race was shaping up well for him given that he has great speed. A fast pace benefitted Kimeli, but he knew pushing it near his limit would just mean he'd have no kick. He opted to run reasonably slow but not down to a crawl. Ebenyo should be * that * guy to take the fall, but he was unwilling to sacrifice himself. The Ethiopians can't ask Edris to sacrifice himself, given that a crawling pace might give him a chance and his pedigree. Barega had reason to believe a slower pace might be good for him, but this was just a disastrous Champs for him. Kejelcha was thus pretty much alone, and he has never been able to kick well after pushing the pace. So, the game theory and calculus really didn't work well for anyone.
EXCELLENT post. It's the prisoner's dilemma.
Yes in terms of winning, what everyone else in the field did was really stupid. But they all wanted to medal themselves. If they push they pace, they likely don't medal. Kejelcha rabbitted Rome and got destroyed by the two Kenyans. So everyone just waited for the kick.
It's in no one's self interest to push the pcae. I think the best bet would be for Kimeli to realize he got lucky to get in the final and just sacrifice himself. But do you really think the world leader is going to do that? If he does that, he likely helps Uganda more so than Kenya. As it ended up, Kenya ended up with silver which isn't bad when you have the WR holder in the race.
Cheptegei's tactics were horriglbe.I've never seen someone run so much in lane 2.
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rojo wrote:
Cheptegei's tactics were horriglbe.I've never seen someone run so much in lane 2.
I have followed almost all runners Barega, Kiplimo, Keshelja, Jacob, Edris ... but this Cheptegei entered in my head from the first day.
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but this Cheptegei never entered in my head from the first day.
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jabouko wrote:
xcfan2233 wrote:
Agree with this. 2023 Worlds will be fascinating to see how people approach this 5,000m, now that Jakob has put a stake in the ground for this event. You simply cannot let Jakob control from 1,000m out in a moderate to slow race, he will progressively squeeze the pace over the final 800m and nobody can match.
Your best best is probably a fartlek style race, similar to '21 Ethiopian trials 10,000m when they still went 26:45. Need to make him uncomfortable and try and zap some of the sting from his finish. Yo-yo the pace between 61 & 67 and then pray. The Ugandan's are probably the best best here if Kiplimo runs, especially considering their XC prowess with all the surging.
Maybe. But remember this race?
7:44.55 through 3000m (albeit with even pacing), and Jakob sat a few seconds off it. He then closed them down and easily moved away for 12:48.
If they yoyo 61/67s, he might just sit off, let them burn their legs, and close hard. I really can't see how he loses between that last 2k of 5:04 in perfect conditions Rome and this 1:52high 800m close in sunny Eugene.
True that.
So in theory the most likely tactic to work on Jakob would be to have someone who can run sub 12:50 pace for 4600m to sacrifice himself. And then just hope it then makes Jakob unable to close under 55 secs..
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It's how Farah won all those medals ... Guys just don't have the confidence to take it out hard from the start in the big finals
Everyone knew Mo was going to win the final kick and low and behold ..
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I feel a bit stupid reading this thread in hindsight, I was convinced Jakob needed a fast race to win. Obviously I know his 1500m speed, but I wasn't 100% sure he'd have it at the end of a 5k, and that he had too much talent behind him to oukick them all. Everyone saying how obvious it was but I was still genuinely surprised, I feel like a bit of an idiot haha. I did have him on the podium but not as champion.
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Tisialan wrote:
I feel a bit stupid reading this thread in hindsight, I was convinced Jakob needed a fast race to win. Obviously I know his 1500m speed, but I wasn't 100% sure he'd have it at the end of a 5k, and that he had too much talent behind him to oukick them all. Everyone saying how obvious it was but I was still genuinely surprised, I feel like a bit of an idiot haha. I did have him on the podium but not as champion.
I think people conflated Jakob's lack of a blistering 150-200 as not having closing speed. Jakob's strength in these tactical 5,000m races is squeezing the life from the field over the final 800-1,000. 58 penultimate lap shakes off the pretenders and a 53 finish slams the door. Look at his final 1K in 100m splits and how he progressively accelerates (15.3, 15.1, 14.8, 14.9, 14.9, 14.1, 13.7, 13.5, 13.2, 13.5 while celebrating).
The difference between Jakob and the field is that a 58 is their 1500m pace, while he is comfortable running 55's. You won't beat him if you let him control the final 1,000 like that.
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Yeah my big surprise was not Jakob winning, it was Jakob so easily seizing and holding the lead from 800 out. The Kenyans and Grant handled it OK but I expected the Ethiopians and Cheptegei to do way more to try to take some control of the race.
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Mocazilla wrote:
Perhaps they just weren't feeling that good - Chep went to the front for first 1.2k but backed off after that. Still shouldn't have run the race in lane 2. I guess he still has his 10k gold to fall back on.
Barega on the other hand... not sure but he didn't sound that confident after the 10k. He ran really well in Tokyo but never really put himself in a position to contend
Cheptegei went after water behind Ingebrigtsen the second time around. He certainly may have been negatively impacted by the heat.
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Barega (aged 16/17?) did better in 2017 than in 2022.10
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That's because yer man was 25 in that race. He's 30 now.
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Use your eyes. Barega is a young-looking guy. I could believe he is anywhere from his listed age to maybe a couple years older. If you want to tell me Muktar Edris is 5-7 years older than listed…sure.
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L\'innoculateur wrote:
Barega (aged 16/17?) did better in 2017 than in 2022.Something's not right with Barega this year. He's getting kicked down by Fisher and others who shouldn't be in his league. He's lost 1-2 seconds off his final lap compared to last year. 2021 Barega would be chasing down the home straight with Jakob in that 5k. I don't know if it's fitness, injury, or just the normal post-Olympics downswing but he's not same athlete this year. He won Paris but was handed his backside by Aregawi at Pre. Even his indoor season was mixed. Yes, he won indoor gold, but he was getting beat in the meets up to that point.
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Barega was one my best beats for the future of distances running. Even World Athletics was beating on him when he got the title of the best rising athlete of the year 2019.
I started doubting about him in 2020 when he was getting mixed results (compare this to what he did in the 5000m in 2018, PB 12;43) and especially the defeat against Kiplimo (finnish involved) in some 3000m.Someone in the comments two years ago said to me that maybe Barega didn't age well. But it could the support and training that didn't help him to progress.
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High hopes wrote:
L\'innoculateur wrote:
Barega (aged 16/17?) did better in 2017 than in 2022.Something's not right with Barega this year. He's getting kicked down by Fisher and others who shouldn't be in his league. He's lost 1-2 seconds off his final lap compared to last year. 2021 Barega would be chasing down the home straight with Jakob in that 5k. I don't know if it's fitness, injury, or just the normal post-Olympics downswing but he's not same athlete this year. He won Paris but was handed his backside by Aregawi at Pre. Even his indoor season was mixed. Yes, he won indoor gold, but he was getting beat in the meets up to that point.
yeah, definitely not the same as last year...wasn't even close to being in contention in either final
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xcfan2233 wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
In a 5,000, the person who pushes the 4th Kilometer (and before) close to all out invariably serves as a sacrificial lamb and loses. That is unless they are hugely better than the field. It is too grueling an event with margins too thin for an athlete to win crushing the pace like that.
The last athlete capable of it was the GOAT Kenenisa Bekele. He did it in 2008 running 12:57 (7:35 last 3K, 4:57 last 2000, 2:25 last K). The field then was not at this year's level with Eliud Kipchoge (12:50s shape), Edwin Soi (12:55 shape), and then a few 13-flat type guys. Bekele was in world record shape and at the peak of his powers (8:04i, 26:25 10K, 10 second victory at the Golden League Final).
Good as Cheptegei is, he is at most 5-15 seconds better in a time trial than a large group including Jakob, Kimeli, Krop, Barega, Kejelcha, Grant, Mo Ahmed and go on down the line. So no one athlete is going to do it alone. After Oscar Chelimo won the heat, there's no way they could ask him to be a sacrificial lamb. The Kenyan coaches might have ideas of pushing it faster, but Krop knew that the race was shaping up well for him given that he has great speed. A fast pace benefitted Kimeli, but he knew pushing it near his limit would just mean he'd have no kick. He opted to run reasonably slow but not down to a crawl. Ebenyo should be * that * guy to take the fall, but he was unwilling to sacrifice himself. The Ethiopians can't ask Edris to sacrifice himself, given that a crawling pace might give him a chance and his pedigree. Barega had reason to believe a slower pace might be good for him, but this was just a disastrous Champs for him. Kejelcha was thus pretty much alone, and he has never been able to kick well after pushing the pace. So, the game theory and calculus really didn't work well for anyone.
Agree with this. 2023 Worlds will be fascinating to see how people approach this 5,000m, now that Jakob has put a stake in the ground for this event. You simply cannot let Jakob control from 1,000m out in a moderate to slow race, he will progressively squeeze the pace over the final 800m and nobody can match.
Your best best is probably a fartlek style race, similar to '21 Ethiopian trials 10,000m when they still went 26:45. Need to make him uncomfortable and try and zap some of the sting from his finish. Yo-yo the pace between 61 & 67 and then pray. The Ugandan's are probably the best best here if Kiplimo runs, especially considering their XC prowess with all the surging.
Yo-yo the pace between 61 and 67? Jacob would run 64s while giggling hysterically.
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L'innoculateur wrote:
Barega was one my best beats for the future of distances running. Even World Athletics was beating on him when he got the title of the best rising athlete of the year 2019.
I started doubting about him in 2020 when he was getting mixed results (compare this to what he did in the 5000m in 2018, PB 12;43) and especially the defeat against Kiplimo (finnish involved) in some 3000m.Someone in the comments two years ago said to me that maybe Barega didn't age well. But it could the support and training that didn't help him to progress.
Who knows. It's possible he was over-raced this year and lost fitness as it went on. He needs to earn money, but it was a bit much. With this racing schedule, he probably shouldn't have been allowed to double either.
From May 28th through June 18th, he ran three 5,000s and a 10,000. He obviously raced great in Paris on the 18th, running a 12:56 in scorching hot conditions. But it looks to me that most of the Ethiopians were at their best in late May-mid June and looked pretty fried by Worlds. Last year they had more time to recalibrate and ready themselves for Worlds after Ethiopian Trials. They didn't race so many DLs. This year with only about 5 weeks (for those who raced Paris) to regain fitness and some running 2-3 DLs AND an all-out 10,000 at Trials none of them performed well.
I'm all for racing and 5Ks, but having four high-level 5,000s before Worlds on the DL circuit (Pre, Rome, Paris, Oslo) was excessive. At least 2 of them should've been 3000s or 2 miles (for Pre).21 -
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Compared to the current strategy they are employing where you could have the gold medal ceremony for Jakob before the race even starts? It doesn't have to be predictable either, surge for 500/600/700m and then back off for a bit before going again. He won't know which moves are serious and if he wants to lay 30 yards off the pace then keep pressing and make him work to catch up.
Watch the 5,000, Jakob immediately moves from his customary last place start once he sees Cheptegei go to the lead. Its not a DL time trial, I don't think he is willing to let guys get too far away from him in a global final, especially when some of them have run 12:35/12:43/12:46 etc.. Especially at it gets later in the race, surging with 1,600-2,000 to go, he will have to respond, maybe less so to an early lap move.
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