5000 is stacked (although i believe it comes second for all doublers)
🇺🇬cheptegei 12:35
🇪🇹barega 12:43
🇰🇪kimeli 12:46
🇪🇹kejelcha 12:46
🇰🇪krop 12:46
🇨🇦ahmed 12:47
🇳🇴ingebrigtsen 12:48
🇺🇬kiplimo 12:48
🇪🇹aregawi 12:50
🇺🇸fisher 12:53 indoors
🇪🇹edris 12:54 (2x defending wc)
Crazy impressive when you lay it out like this. Edris has time and time again outraced his PBs. Jakob and Aregawi can likely both dip into the mid-12:40s or faster.
If you look at Aregawi last 5k races (both track and road), it will most likely be run in the 12'4x range, as it will be his pace and most will follow.
I would not be surprised with a stacked finish well under 13, like 10 between 12'39 and 12'48.
A minor point in the men's 5k: what was Marc Scott thinking when he withdrew from the 10,000 to concentrate on the 5,000? He'd have a decent chance of getting in the top 8 in the 10k, but he is likely to get buried in this 5k field
First thing I thought after seeing the news. The 10,000 where he had his best shot just replaced a non-factor in Mengesha with Aregawi. That team with Worku and Barega is nasty. 5,000 I don’t think honestly a gigantic impact as Telahun Bekele is not some slouch to be subbed out.
Also rough news for Sinclaire Johnson/St. Pierre/McGee/Hull et al with Tsegay now moving to the 1500. With Kipyegon, Muirand Tsegay up top they might be fighting for 4th
More like fighting for 6th behind Hailu and Meshesha. The States should be happy if any American goes sub-3:59, medal or not. Likewise for the Aussies if Hull or Hall breaks 4.
Sinclaire Johnson’s medal chance just went out the window. I am saying this for two reasons
1) Even on the surface, Faith Kiypegon, Guadaf Tsegay, and Laura Muir are clearly better than Johnson, it would take something catastrophic to happen for her to medal (in any kind of race).
2) Tsegay’s addition will completely changes how the race is going to be run. After this addition , i guarantee you the final is going to be super fast (probably sub 3:55); Tsegay doesn’t have a closing speed, and she doesn’t want it to come to a kicker race. This means, In all likelihood Johnson have to run sub 3:55 in order to medal, which i don’t see it happening.
You may want to check how Muir ran the last two times she raced in Eugene. She could blow up if she tries to chase Tsegay.
I wouldn't pay any attention to Muir's performance at the post-Tokyo Pre meet. The Brits had to make two long-haul flights and were basically in party mode at that point. Hodgkinson was awful, too, at that meet.
More worrying for Muir has been her 1500 form this year. She convincingly beat Hull in Birmingham but it was only in 4:02. She ran a couple of good 800s so maybe she's rounding into form but I had her as a high medal probability in Tokyo and she's slipped back from that. It's Kipyegon, Tsegay, then whoever can manage a 3:57 on the day. I think Muir will overestimate her fitness and go with Kipyegon and Tsegay before getting caught with 200 to go.
LOL Fisher Has a faster time than all of them, Fisher should just go hard and run Personal Record Pace and dare them to stay with him, make sure if they want to beat him they have to run a big Personal Best. Fisher as run 26:33 The top Two Ethiopians best's are 26:44-26:46
That's like having a 3:30 vs a 3:31.50 pr....IOW, the same.
5000 is stacked (although i believe it comes second for all doublers)
🇺🇬cheptegei 12:35
🇪🇹barega 12:43
🇰🇪kimeli 12:46
🇪🇹kejelcha 12:46
🇰🇪krop 12:46
🇨🇦ahmed 12:47
🇳🇴ingebrigtsen 12:48
🇺🇬kiplimo 12:48
🇪🇹aregawi 12:50
🇺🇸fisher 12:53 indoors
🇪🇹edris 12:54 (2x defending wc)
Nice, I just listed the same eleven men over on the Grant Fisher medal odds thread before seeing this. It is the middle/long distance race of the championships.
A minor point in the men's 5k: what was Marc Scott thinking when he withdrew from the 10,000 to concentrate on the 5,000? He'd have a decent chance of getting in the top 8 in the 10k, but he is likely to get buried in this 5k field
Not to mention he missed the final last year. Qualifying could get dicey. A sub-13 guy is getting bounced if not more than a few.
Nice, I just listed the same eleven men over on the Grant Fisher medal odds thread before seeing this. It is the middle/long distance race of the championships.
No kiplimo: 10000 only
I agree with others on this thread that this race is the most exciting in the whole WC.
The men´s 1500m final in Tokyo 2021 was (by far) the fastest ever in an international championship and the men´s 5000m final in Eugene could - even without Kiplimo - likewise be the fastest ever in a non paced race.
A minor point in the men's 5k: what was Marc Scott thinking when he withdrew from the 10,000 to concentrate on the 5,000? He'd have a decent chance of getting in the top 8 in the 10k, but he is likely to get buried in this 5k field
Not to mention he missed the final last year. Qualifying could get dicey. A sub-13 guy is getting bounced if not more than a few.
Yeah, he was vocal about the little-q system on social media afterwards. He's going to have to work to get to the final, it's certainly not a given.
I can only assume that he is planning on running the 10k at the Euros where he will have a chance of taking gold. He would fancy his chances against people like Crippa and Gressier. He'll run the CWG as well but will face stiffer competition there.
Yeah, he was vocal about the little-q system on social media afterwards. He's going to have to work to get to the final, it's certainly not a given.
I can only assume that he is planning on running the 10k at the Euros where he will have a chance of taking gold. He would fancy his chances against people like Crippa and Gressier. He'll run the CWG as well but will face stiffer competition there.
Yeah, he would go off as an underdog at the CWG. You will have Kandie back in the fold and a resurgent Edward Zakayo there (13:06 win recently), as well as Mo Ahmed and the Ugandans potentially (unsure if they are running).
The Commonwealth Games actually look to be pretty awesome as you'll have a lot of the top Kenyans who can't go to Worlds for whatever reason (insufficient drugs tests or the standard) coming in fresh with a lot of the big stars running both. Looks pretty must-watch to me, which is not always the case.
I agree with others on this thread that this race is the most exciting in the whole WC.
The men´s 1500m final in Tokyo 2021 was (by far) the fastest ever in an international championship and the men´s 5000m final in Eugene could - even without Kiplimo - likewise be the fastest ever in a non paced race.
El G ran 3:27 at Worlds in '99. Adil Kaouch his teammate (Who was banned for EPO) paced through 800 for him.
5000 is stacked (although i believe it comes second for all doublers)
🇺🇬cheptegei 12:35
🇪🇹barega 12:43
🇰🇪kimeli 12:46
🇪🇹kejelcha 12:46
🇰🇪krop 12:46
🇨🇦ahmed 12:47
🇳🇴ingebrigtsen 12:48
🇺🇬kiplimo 12:48
🇪🇹aregawi 12:50
🇺🇸fisher 12:53 indoors
🇪🇹edris 12:54 (2x defending wc)
Crazy impressive when you lay it out like this. Edris has time and time again outraced his PBs. Jakob and Aregawi can likely both dip into the mid-12:40s or faster.
Fisher is in mid 12:40 shape as well.
How he recovers from the 10k is key. 10k is first and will be the only race on his mind until it is over.
Never underestimate Grant Fisher. He is a much improved athlete from last year.
So Ethiopia is sending its strongest team since the Bekele/T.Dibaba/Defar era to the worlds while Kenya sends its weakest in over a decade. The Ethiopian federation has learnt from the years of drought that the asinine no-doubling policy wasn't working, showing that a bit of flexibility could give them a realistic shot of sweeping all distance events.
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