If ritz ran ncaa xc the last two years, would he have beaten bairu?

DublAK2 wrote:

not exactly. Ya know other white people have won before and they don't get the attention rtiz does. Jorge is hispanic but still native born nonetheless and dathan still seems to get most of the attention. Ritz is a bit more special than your annual NCAA winner.

Jorge Torres was born in Mexico.

This was three years ago, the differntial was 19 seconds, Ritz was more of a star in HS and was better at an earlier point in his career. Despite Ritz success last year in XC, I think that Simon's XC skills are better and may be enough to give him a shot at beating Ritz. Will we really get to see in the WC XC; maybe, but it is possible that it will be a sidelight for Simon or that he will miss it althougher because of NCAA Indoors.

Two years ago, I think that Simon finished 60th, which is where Ritz finished last year (including being beaten by Simon's redshirting freshman Withrow, who was not even good enough push into the lineup in his first year at Wisconsin). Someone posted that last year's 28:06 10,000 was "run on one leg". If so, we might see something well into the 27s, which is pretty good by most standards. We might also see a pretty competitive race between the two.

I would doubt that Bairu's XC skills are better than Ritz granted Ritz's successes on XC... not only winning the Bronze at the IAAF World Junior Championships, but also dominating at the USATF 12K Championships, then going over to Europe and dominating on the hill and dale there, as well as being an NCAA Champion as a sophomore and a 4th place finish as a Frosh.

Bairu has progressed nicely over his career and is in fine form, but to compare him against Ritzenhein as a "close" race is premature. Just for measures, Ritz ran 28:11 on a warm/humid day, while Paul Morrison just ran 29:00+ on a road 10K all the same.

Ritz would ahve been injured so he wouldn't have run at either Nationals.

Bairu beat:

- everyone in the NCAA this year, whatever their track credentials are.

- Morrison (13:26), Coolsaet (13:22), McKenzie (13:36), and Benninger (13:33? early in the season) at Canadian Nationals.

I think Bairu would make a good race of it and probably win. More importantly, and I can't emphasize this enough, Bairu is the polar opposite of Ritz. Bairu has crap like this thrown at him and does nothing but win; Ritz gets built up to be a demigod but does nothing with it. This is why even if Ritz is somehow the better runner on paper, Simon would find a way to win.

the don wrote:

ritz was healthy for less than 2 months and beat a guy who went on to run something around 13:20. Bairu has dominated 13:30-13:40 guys but hall would be a strong challenge for bairu. last year when bairu was racing collegiate guys ritz was racing the 5 time euro cc champ and olympic marathon gold medalist. Ritz is out of bairu's league at this point.

This post is chock-full of terrible arguments! Hall went on to run 13:15 or whatever 18 MONTHS after getting beaten by Ritz, so that is irrelevent until 18 months have passed from now and we see what Kiplagat, McDougal, Solinsky, Keating, Boit, Benninger, Cheseret, Kosgei, Withrow, etc. do.

Of course Hall would be a strong challenge for Bairu, he's one of the top runners in the US currently (over 5k for sure, but 10k maybe not so much). Hall has a better 5k pr than Ritz, doesn't he? What's your point!??!?

So, basically, those are bad arguments. That said, I don't think Bairu has the edge over Ritz in a 10k xc race, but I also don't think that Ritz is out of Bairu's league. Yes Ritz was more than just your average annual NCAA xc winner, but ANY 2x champ is better than your average annual NCAA xc winner also. If he can stay healthy this upcoming track season, I would not be surprised at all to see Bairu run 7:50i, sub 13:30 and sub 27:50. In fact, his 28:04 pr correlates with a 5k of 13:27, so those aren't outlandish at all.

I think it is safe to say that Bairu is stronger than last year when he ran 28.04. Dont think anyone on hear would argue with that. I think a realistic target for Bairu for 10k this year would be 27.40ish right around where ritz has run. With an athlete like Ritz it is not a given that he will improve on his time from 2004, so this would put them right at the same level with each other. Would Bairu have beat Ritz? Who knows? But to say that Ritz is out of Bairu's league is ridiculous.

Ritz is white american.

Bairu is neither of the above.

Letsrun posters do not support non-white foreigners especially from Canada.

Don't forget..

Ritz would ahve been injured so he wouldn't have run at either Nationals.

What did Bairu do last year at NCAA's? OR did he get spanked by Rupp and Co.? Don't talk about injuries.

Event 8 Men 10000 Meter Run

=======================================================================

Final Only. Two waterfall, one turn, start (18 - 8)

American: 27:13.98 5/4/2001 Meb Keflezghi, Nike

College Best: 27:22.47 6/11/1978 Henry Rono, Washington State

NCAA Meet: 28:01.30 6/1/1979 Suleiman Nyambui, Texas-El Paso

Hornet Stad: 27:36.49 7/9/2004 Mebrahtom Keflezighi, Nikle

Name Year School Finals Points

=======================================================================

Finals

1 Robert Cheseret JR Arizona 28:20.11 10

2 Galen Rupp FR Oregon 28:23.75 8

3 Peter Kosgei SO Arkansas 28:39.29 6

4 Rod Koborsi JR Georgetown 28:42.05 5

5 Bret Schoolmeester JR Colorado 28:49.07 4

6 Josphat Boit JR Arkansas 28:52.69 3

7 Josh Rohatinsky SO Brigham Young 28:54.70 2

8 Tim Nelson SO Wisconsin 29:01.56 1

9 Andrew Carlson SR Minnesota 29:03.75

10 John Moore FR Portland 29:09.00

11 Ryan Sheehan SR St. Francis-PA 29:13.81

12 Jason Sandfort SR Arkansas 29:14.75

13 Kaleb VanOrt JR Notre Dame 29:19.74

14 Simon Bairu JR Wisconsin 29:25.19

15 Casey Burchill JR Arizona State 29:34.44

16 Antony Ford SR Wisconsin 29:35.28

17 Alex Korir SO Alabama 29:41.18

18 Mark Nichol SR Texas 29:51.92

19 Delfino Arevalo SR Utah 29:54.48

20 Sean Quigley FR La Salle 29:58.38

21 Karl Dusen SR Columbia 30:02.91

22 Brett Gotcher SO Stanford 30:11.48

23 Dave Ernsberger SR Central Michigan 30:16.77

24 Andrew Middleton JR Texas 30:31.96

25 Japheth Ng'Ojoy FR Texas-El Paso 30:56.16

-- Mathew Chesang SR Kansas State DNF

http://www.ncaasports.com/track-and-field/results/outdoor/2005/div1/finals/050608F008

Oh, and Jorge Torres was born in Chicago, IL.

http://www.usatf.org/athletes/bios/Torres_Jorge.asp

The 2003 Ritz wouldn't have beaten Bairu. He was in good enough form in a weak XC year. But the Ritz who won USATF's last year would've won IMO.

Did you see me say anything about Bairu?

When talking about Ritz, how does one NOT talk about injuries.

WILL BAIRU BE AT THE WORLD XC IN JAPAN? IF SO, DO YOU THINK HE WILL GET TOP 20?

Jorge was born in the U$A and Solinsky can beat Ritz anytime. Ritz is not that good, face all you Pre and Ritz lovers.

ultra vegan runner wrote:

Jorge was born in the U$A and Solinsky can beat Ritz anytime.

No.

26mi235 wrote:

Two years ago, I think that Simon finished 60th, which is where Ritz finished last year

RITZ FINISHED TOP 25 THREE YEARS AGO, AS A TEENAGER.

D RITZ is the MAN wrote:

Are you kidding?!?!?!?!?!?!

Ritz would DESTROY bairu. Wouldn't even be close. Even if Bairu somehow managed to stay with Ritz until the last 6k, he wouldn't be able to outsprint him.

If Ritz ran.. it would have been like Foot Locker nationals Ritz's senior year (this is what would've happened last year). Ritz would have beaten him even worse this year.

It wouldn't even be funny. Ritz is so much better than Bairu.

one can only win if you turn up for a race

F*** all U$A runners!!!

I'm a US'er but i have to say, id put my money on bairu and to be honest, i think id rather see bairu win too.