Out of the 4 HS sub 4 milers this year, who will make an Olympic team?

You don’t know enough about NP’s or Gary’s training to speculate. There training is probably a lot closer than you think.

The person claiming to have evidence has not produced evidence. What we’ve heard from NP: they 50-60 miles per week.

What the poster claims: he’s found mysterious, random, no name people running 70 miles per week from NP. Unless he posts the accounts for everyone to see, I assume it was a made up statement to support his argument.

I take Harrison since he has the most speed. But seriously they all need to I improve 6-9s to be threats in the 1500m. That's a lot and predicting who improves and who stagnates is hard. Go down the list of other sub 4 kids and not many of them made improvements like that. The best kid might turn out to be some 4:03 kid who responds really well to college training.

I am always torn if the US system sucks cause we take kids that have been successful and change up there system or is good cause you get kids that move from crappy coaching to decent when they show talent. It is probably a mix

It’s not just one person. Several people have found NP Strava accounts. They are now locked down, so nothing to see. Why is it so hard to believe some of their team has run 70 mpw and why are some so strongly insisting they don’t? if they actually ran 70 mpw would it somehow diminish what they’ve accomplished or the job the coach has done?

Also, why is the team not allowed to post on Strava? Seems kind of controlling.

I’m going to play the age game. Nico didn’t dominate in high school until he was a junior. He’s only a sophomore in college and is a 5 time all american.

Hes the fastest american teenager over 5000 ever and that would probably be true over 10000 if they ever let him run that on the track.

At NCAA XC as an 18 year old freshman he only lost to people who were 22, 24, and ???. This past week he was 19 against people 24 and 25.

The only people in his class that are challenging him are people he didn’t face in high school (hicks, robinson) and he’s still clearly better than both of them. If you’re talking about cole sprout, he had a bad race in worse conditions at nxn. he still posted crazy times and beat nico as a junior, it’s not like he has progressed to some insane degree in college.

Out of all the sports I've followed, track is probably the most fickle of any of them. Trying to predict who's going to make it at the next level is an absolute crapshoot and if I was a gambler, I'd rather take my money to a craps table than bet on who's going to win a medal.

I mean, after Clayton Murphy ran 1:54 in high school, was there even a single person who predicted he was going to eventually be an olympic bronze medalist and 1:42 guy? F*ck no. Likewise, would anyone have predicted that Alan Webb would never win a single medal in his career? Probably not. Even amongst the prodigies in hs and college (i.e. Ed Cheserek), most don't have the same level of success in college or as a pro. A lot do, most don't.

That's why it's absolutely dumb to try and make predictions, there is absolutely no way of knowing.

You can qualify it all you want, but he is not dominating college competition. He is VERY good! Maybe he will dominate at some point, but as of now he is not.

Cheserek, Joe Falcon and Bob Kenned dominated early. As an example, Cheserek won 8 of his first 11 collegiate races, including 3 NCAA titles. Nico was more dominant in High School than Cheserek.

He has faced Hicks on multiple occasions his junior year

Make that Five.

It's unpopular to point out, but with 5 in one season...shoes. Without I reckon we would have seen two this year which is still amazing. Sub 4 is the old 4:03.

I used to hate comments like this but at this point I think I have to agree.

It's not so much the spikes themselves during a race as it is using them to work out. Hitting faster paces in reps day in and day out, running in better, more injury preventative trainers. Faster carbon plated tempo shoes. Over a career it all adds up.

If I went back in time to my freshman self when I trained in the cheapest sneakers I could find and gave me a pair of dragonflies, I doubt I would have ran more than two seconds faster in an all out mile than I did in my 40$ pair of nike spikes. But if I had been training in the shoes I do now, doing workouts in modern spikes, I bet I would have been quite a bit faster.

Maybe covid, or the covid vaccine is responsible for all the great times we are witnessing.

Probably none of them, since apparently none of them would be sub 4 without super shoes. Just a few years ago there were a couple in the same class go sub 4 without super shoes and they're close enough in age to this grade, so those runners from a few years ago will just dominate the running scene in 5-8 years. Drew Hunter went 3:57 in high school without super shoes, so he's got to be a lock to make the next couple olympics since that's probably 3:49 with super shoes.

unironically think america would produce better runners if it stopped obsessing over school children

The thing u have to realize is 3:59 mile in 2022 is 4:02 or 4:03 mile in 2018

4 seconds a mile lol. Somebody should let Johnny Gregorek know he could have run a 3:45 indoor mile in the spikes. The world lead in the 1500m since the spikes have come out would not be under 3:32. Why arent all the 3:28-3:29 guys from the last few years shattering El Gs world record?

None of them will make it in the discus; they are all pretty scrawny. Maybe javelin for Gary Martin since he seems to have good arm speed.

Not Colin he is too big of a DB

I like the way the two Steves developed: Steve Scott & Steve Holman. Steve Scott, about 1:52.xx 880 yards & 4:15 one mile in high school. Steve Holman, about 1:51.xx & 4:16.xx 1600m in high school. Those kind of high school performances, college coaches did not have vision. Neither Steve were top national high school 1600m or one mile guys. The were passed over by a lot of college coaches who lacked vision. Give me a kid who has great 800m performances on (30 to 45) miles per week. A college coach can gradually double the weekly mileage. If I were a college coach, I would load up my team with as many low mileage sub-1:52 800m guys as possible.