Oslo Dream Mile: predictions?

Those predictions sound good. I also predict that weak, scared, *non-competitive* Americans won't even show up and compete because they prefer to stay in their comfortable Oregon cocoons. In the old days, when American runners had pride and *guts*, the Dream Mile had legions of Americans competing. Now they're more interested in their own Instagram and YouTube channels. Pathetic.

Dunno, I just see him as a reliable 3:32/33 guy. He always runs well (except for the Olympic final) but he's not laid down anything spectacular yet. I've seen nothing to suggest that he can run in the 3:47 range but I hope to be wrong on Thursday - I didn't think Kerr had 3:29 in his locker either so what do I know?

I think this is a great prediction regarding order. Katir seems off this year, and Whiteman seems to have gotten back his last 150 gear change.

The meet is too close to USAs. You can criticize the Oregon guys if they don’t race in Europe after Worlds.

The low rate of American participation in international track meets is trend, not just relating to Oslo. They get more enjoyment out of intra-squad time trial 'meets' (avoids drug testing) versus competing against the world's best. That is absolutely true, no question. Americans train hard but are GUTLESS. They are scared of actual competition. The BURRITO Track Club is an example.

Guys like Ingebritsen, McSweyn, the East Africans....they deserve respect for putting it on the line.

Well, poor McSweyn has his issues this year. The issue that cannot be named!

I believe the Americans have their team trials somewhat soon? I think it would be foolhardy to travel to Oslo from America so close to such an important race.

That's exactly what I was thinking. We will finally see a sub 3:46 mile. I'll go with a 3:45.88.

This was covered in another thread. It's a combination of most of the distance runners not being good enough to get invites to the DL and them being paid too much on their basic contracts compared to African and European athletes. American distance runners are paid to train by the shoe companies, Europeans and Africans need to compete for a living.

Even so, you can't criticise Americans for skipping Oslo when the trials are right around the corner.

But on that note: what is Joe Klecker doing in the 5k? Has he decided to either skip the trials or is he thinking of it as a free hit and he'd rather take his shot at sub-13 in Oslo instead?

Ollie runs 3:46.7 and buys me a new Tesla to play with

Well zero chance he’d race this if he hadn’t already made the team. 5,000 is now house money and this is a great chance to get a PB and valuable experience. Ritz has never been afraid of racing his athletes either. Jerry would not do this in a million years .

That's what I thought. Not much chance of a sub-13 racing in the US for the remainder of this year so Oslo is a real chance to shoot his shot in a top tier field. I hope he gets it

Didn’t ya hear? Keith McSqueezy will be in town, and he’ll be ready to sit on Mr. Ingy until 1200m, and then he’ll start the pumpin’ and the squeezin’ ;) Jakob won’t stand a chance

#coffeeclub

1. Olli "McSqueezey" Hoare 2. Jinge 3. Katir

You heard it here first.

Solid troll. Who were the "legions" of Americans though? Steve Scott and...who? Are you talking about Joe Falcon?

Or do you perhaps mean the legions of athletes from all over the world who choose to live and train in America because it's so much better than wherever they're from?

So Crams ER set at Bislett went down like this

57.0 (400m), 1.54.2 (800m) 2.53.2 (1209m) 3.46.30 (1609m)

What jumps out is the pretty epic negative split and in particular how fast the last lap was (close to 53.0 when you take into account hand timed splits vs the electronic time at the finish).

Sub 3.47 is tough no matter how good you are. Only 17 times in history has a race gone under 3.47 and 10 of those times come from El Guerrojou (7) and Morceli (3) combined.

If it's going to happen I believe the race needs to be similar to Crams in terms of more conservative in the first lap. They can't go out in 54 - pointless. They have to hit somewhere between 1.53.0 and 1.53.5 as even as possible. Cram was a special finisher and in particular on this night and I don't think Jakob is quite of that league (Cram more 800/1500, Jakob 1500/5000) so he would need to get to 1209 in 2.51.0 give or take and he has a shot.

Could it happen? Possibly, but given how tough it is the odds are it doesn't. I like Jakob for the win in a still extremely solid and elite 3.47.8

What about " super shoes "? What, they somehow don't work in the Mile???

This. My sentiments exactly. Jakob is great but record-breaking is never a given.

Also, as much as I like him I don't think Katir is in shape yet as others have said.

Would be nice if they do have a decent crack at the record and will add excitement to the race.

No knock on Hoare but I don’t see him running sub 3:48. Possible but not likely. Jakob for the win but I would be surprised if he breaks 3:48. I say Jakob 3:48.22, Hoare 3:49.57