Gidey is amazing and she may prove to be the 2nd coming of Kipchoge, but I agree with those who are emphasizing that the HM and below is nothing like 42.2. Do we all think Kiplimo could beat Kipchoge this fall? What about Kamworor or Kandie? Not so much….clearly. The next distance up is a leap and though Gidey may prove to be the best ever, she needs to race it once first before we proclaim her the goat. No way she breaks 2:15.
Gidey is amazing and she may prove to be the 2nd coming of Kipchoge, but I agree with those who are emphasizing that the HM and below is nothing like 42.2. Do we all think Kiplimo could beat Kipchoge this fall? What about Kamworor or Kandie? Not so much….clearly. The next distance up is a leap and though Gidey may prove to be the best ever, she needs to race it once first before we proclaim her the goat. No way she breaks 2:15.
Gidey is amazing and she may prove to be the 2nd coming of Kipchoge, but I agree with those who are emphasizing that the HM and below is nothing like 42.2. Do we all think Kiplimo could beat Kipchoge this fall? What about Kamworor or Kandie? Not so much….clearly. The next distance up is a leap and though Gidey may prove to be the best ever, she needs to race it once first before we proclaim her the goat. No way she breaks 2:15.
This is the possibility no one wants to contemplate: what if she's a HM specialist like Tadese or Kamworor? I remember on the Breaking 2 documentary, the sports scientists said Tadese had the bets lactate threshold they had ever seen, which is why they thought his ceiling was high enough to run with Kipchoge. That didn't end well. I hope she can be a marathon star, there's just so much uncertainty and let's face it, nothing about Kipchoge's pre-marathon career suggested he could be the kind of dominant force he has turned out to be.
Gidey is amazing and she may prove to be the 2nd coming of Kipchoge, but I agree with those who are emphasizing that the HM and below is nothing like 42.2. Do we all think Kiplimo could beat Kipchoge this fall? What about Kamworor or Kandie? Not so much….clearly. The next distance up is a leap and though Gidey may prove to be the best ever, she needs to race it once first before we proclaim her the goat. No way she breaks 2:15.
This is the possibility no one wants to contemplate: what if she's a HM specialist like Tadese or Kamworor? I remember on the Breaking 2 documentary, the sports scientists said Tadese had the bets lactate threshold they had ever seen, which is why they thought his ceiling was high enough to run with Kipchoge. That didn't end well. I hope she can be a marathon star, there's just so much uncertainty and let's face it, nothing about Kipchoge's pre-marathon career suggested he could be the kind of dominant force he has turned out to be.
Exactly. Honestly, just strolling out and breaking the WR first time out? That’s a tall order. Having optimal marathon physiology seems unpredictable based on HM and shorter races. When somebody owns the WR in the 10, it’s not nearly the same stretch to say they will be the HM record holder as it is to predict the marathon from HM performance. We see this over and over again. Gidey may have what it takes to destroy the marathon record, but I just think calling out times like 2:11-2:12 for her first real effort is not aligned with the history of the sport.
I’m surprised no one else is saying this, and even more that I’m the one to say it, but … doesn’t this move to the full marathon seem a bit premature ?
Gidey is just 24, and has only been on the scene for what, a couple years ? She’s coming off an exemplary sequence of years where she’s run 14:06, 29:01, 44:20, and 62:52. I get striking while the iron is hot, and seizing an almost entirely unprecedented opportunity of holding every distance WR at the same time. But Gidey is obviously positioned to be the absolute GOAT - her potential seems to be in the 13:50/28:40/62:00 range . Why not lower these times first ? I’m definitely not opposed to an athlete moving to the marathon before they’re 30+, I’m just a bit surprised, she’s only run the one half and it seems like she’s not past 90% of her potential on the track …
This would almost be like Kiplimo (12:48/26:33/57:31) debuting this year . No one could fail to be excited, but it seems like he has more to do at the shorter distances . In fact, this comparison isn’t really apt - it would be like kiplimo having run 12:33/26:08/57:05 then moving up right away. In this hypothetical, he’d be leaving the 12:30/26:00/57:00 barriers on the table . Gidey seems similarly poised, so I do question the move.
But of course I’m extremely excited , hope she goes out in 66:00 !
I’m surprised no one else is saying this, and even more that I’m the one to say it, but … doesn’t this move to the full marathon seem a bit premature ?
Gidey is just 24, and has only been on the scene for what, a couple years ? She’s coming off an exemplary sequence of years where she’s run 14:06, 29:01, 44:20, and 62:52. I get striking while the iron is hot, and seizing an almost entirely unprecedented opportunity of holding every distance WR at the same time. But Gidey is obviously positioned to be the absolute GOAT - her potential seems to be in the 13:50/28:40/62:00 range . Why not lower these times first ? I’m definitely not opposed to an athlete moving to the marathon before they’re 30+, I’m just a bit surprised, she’s only run the one half and it seems like she’s not past 90% of her potential on the track …
This would almost be like Kiplimo (12:48/26:33/57:31) debuting this year . No one could fail to be excited, but it seems like he has more to do at the shorter distances . In fact, this comparison isn’t really apt - it would be like kiplimo having run 12:33/26:08/57:05 then moving up right away. In this hypothetical, he’d be leaving the 12:30/26:00/57:00 barriers on the table . Gidey seems similarly poised, so I do question the move.
But of course I’m extremely excited , hope she goes out in 66:00 !
Kiplimo is a few years younger, and I think more the issue is Gidey has a lot of trouble closing. Throw in the fact that Ethiopia's selection process is ever-changing and anti-doubling and I could see why she wouldn't want to wait. Being in the position where it feels like she can only run one event at Worlds where Sifan Hassan can sit on her and outkick her like clockwork is not a good spot. For Kiplimo, he gets two cracks at it and has reason to believe if he runs better tactically and keeps improving his finish that he can win a gold one of these times out. Additionally, the separation between him and some of the other guys running the Half (Kamworor, Kandie) isn't as big as Gidey and the field.
Kiplimo is a few years younger, and I think more the issue is Gidey has a lot of trouble closing. Throw in the fact that Ethiopia's selection process is ever-changing and anti-doubling and I could see why she wouldn't want to wait. Being in the position where it feels like she can only run one event at Worlds where Sifan Hassan can sit on her and outkick her like clockwork is not a good spot. For Kiplimo, he gets two cracks at it and has reason to believe if he runs better tactically and keeps improving his finish that he can win a gold one of these times out. Additionally, the separation between him and some of the other guys running the Half (Kamworor, Kandie) isn't as big as Gidey and the field.
What we saw in Tokyo is not changing over the next few years. Gidey can run faster and faster on the track, but she will not beat Hassan in Eugene or Paris, so time to concentrate on the roads. Gidey may be the fastest ever 5000 and up, but she’s not going to win a global championship until Hassan moves up or retires..
By moving to the marathon at this age, Gidey has the potential to be the GOAT female marathoner with a period of dominance similar to Kipchoge's. Looking forward to what she can do in her debut - I predict she takes a good shot at the WR but falls a little short, 2:14high or 2:15low.
I’m surprised no one else is saying this, and even more that I’m the one to say it, but … doesn’t this move to the full marathon seem a bit premature ?
Gidey is just 24, and has only been on the scene for what, a couple years ? She’s coming off an exemplary sequence of years where she’s run 14:06, 29:01, 44:20, and 62:52. I get striking while the iron is hot, and seizing an almost entirely unprecedented opportunity of holding every distance WR at the same time. But Gidey is obviously positioned to be the absolute GOAT - her potential seems to be in the 13:50/28:40/62:00 range . Why not lower these times first ? I’m definitely not opposed to an athlete moving to the marathon before they’re 30+, I’m just a bit surprised, she’s only run the one half and it seems like she’s not past 90% of her potential on the track …
This would almost be like Kiplimo (12:48/26:33/57:31) debuting this year . No one could fail to be excited, but it seems like he has more to do at the shorter distances . In fact, this comparison isn’t really apt - it would be like kiplimo having run 12:33/26:08/57:05 then moving up right away. In this hypothetical, he’d be leaving the 12:30/26:00/57:00 barriers on the table . Gidey seems similarly poised, so I do question the move.
But of course I’m extremely excited , hope she goes out in 66:00 !
A bit premature? A bit late, maybe, after Yehualaw laid claim to The Real Next Kipchoge title last month (at age 22), which might have prompted Gidey's Valencia 2022 entry. It may take her a few tries to hit 2:17:23. Let's save the GOAT talk for afterwards.
I’m surprised no one else is saying this, and even more that I’m the one to say it, but … doesn’t this move to the full marathon seem a bit premature ?
Gidey is just 24, and has only been on the scene for what, a couple years ? She’s coming off an exemplary sequence of years where she’s run 14:06, 29:01, 44:20, and 62:52. I get striking while the iron is hot, and seizing an almost entirely unprecedented opportunity of holding every distance WR at the same time. But Gidey is obviously positioned to be the absolute GOAT - her potential seems to be in the 13:50/28:40/62:00 range . Why not lower these times first ? I’m definitely not opposed to an athlete moving to the marathon before they’re 30+, I’m just a bit surprised, she’s only run the one half and it seems like she’s not past 90% of her potential on the track …
This would almost be like Kiplimo (12:48/26:33/57:31) debuting this year . No one could fail to be excited, but it seems like he has more to do at the shorter distances . In fact, this comparison isn’t really apt - it would be like kiplimo having run 12:33/26:08/57:05 then moving up right away. In this hypothetical, he’d be leaving the 12:30/26:00/57:00 barriers on the table . Gidey seems similarly poised, so I do question the move.
But of course I’m extremely excited , hope she goes out in 66:00 !
A bit premature? A bit late, maybe, after Yehualaw laid claim to The Real Next Kipchoge title last month (at age 22), which might have prompted Gidey's Valencia 2022 entry. It may take her a few tries to hit 2:17:23. Let's save the GOAT talk for afterwards.
Gidey beat YY by 59 sec when they busted the HM record in Valencia late last year. I say Gidey goes 49 sec quicker over this longer distance than YY’s effort in Hamburg.