Abel MF Kipsang 3:31.02 @ 5000+ ft of altitude

Crushed the field without breaking a sweat:

2nd fastest after Kwemoi’s 3:30.89

Closing in 40.1 is worth probably close a second on its own… between that and the altitude (& any other mispacing, I’m sure it wasn’t perfect as no race is) this has to be worth 3:27 or better… maybe 3:28 flat at worst. Incredible

Robert Korir looked like a pacer, moving wide at about 600. Kipruto also (somewhat surprisingly) put his arm down and moved wide like a pacer would do with about 100 to go, but Wanyonyi still ran around him. Don't know why Rotich had a sub-par performance by his standards.

I'd say those conversions are too generous. I mean, maybe we eat our words and Kipsang destroys all comers this year and is El G 2.0, but I have my doubts. 3:25 shape in the first week of May? Also looking at Welteji's time. It still is probably her best ever result, but she's shown nothing to indicate she could run a 3:55.70. Even with pacelights and Freweyni Hailu to chase last June she only managed 3:58.70. She's particularly odd though given she only managed 4:13 and 4th at Ethiopian champs 4 weeks ago, losing to multiple women who have never made a single ETH outdoor team.

Long story short, I would bet a lot of money neither one of Kipsang or Welteji go 3:25/3:55 this year.

The conversion are definitely too generous. Kipsang is probably in 3:28 mid-3:29 flat shape right now however. It’s gonna be interesting as far as sustaining it all. He’s got several huge races to come potentially - African Champs, Commonwealth Games, Kenyan Trials and then Worlds. He already was in solid shape for Indoors but he’s a whole level above that now.

3:25 is clickbait
in 2017:

Ronald Kwemoi 3:30.89 (3:28.81 PB, next fastest known time was 3:30.49 in 2016 and 3:49.04 mile in 2017 a month before his race in Kenya)

Timothy Cheruiyot 3:31.05 (3:28.28 PB, ran 3:29.10 in 2017)

Elijah Manangoi 3:32.03 (ran 3:28.8 PB in 2017)

About a ~1.4% difference going by Tim and Elijah's times.

So I would guess this was worth about 3:28 flat at sea level.

He was beaten by Jakob a month and a half ago at World Indoors.

and Kip Keino himself has a PR that came at altitude, right?

NCAA altitude conversion times are to generous to those born and training at altitude, This has been known for a while

When Jakob was ill !

He looked so disappointed by that bronze. But still props to him for being one of the few Kenyans to show up indoors.

He’s just had a solid winter camp and he’s ready to race this summer. Hopefully will be back close to his best this year after an injury plagued previous year.

Yep. Less of an impact if you were born and raised at altitude.

more things to consider

oxygen % is greater at cooler temps and lower altitude. so what needs to be looked at is how this affects things closer to the equator at higher elevations.

since the total "air" is thinner sprinting times are better, but maybe at 5000-8000ft (Nairobi and mexico city) the cooler temps concentrates the % of oxygen to close to sea level levels. add in the less restriction of air and boom fast times all around.

something to think about.

also to add to this, timberline here in colorado is around 10,500-11,000, but can go as high as 13,000 near the equator, thus adding more things to consider about altitude near the equator

This is absurdly fast! Might even be the performance of this entire weekend if you think about it. I mean, even if he ran 3:31.0 at sea level that'd still be really impressive. But a dude with a 3:29 PR running that fast in early May is definitely exciting stuff. Worlds in the 1500 is gonna be one for the books.

Beamonesque