Please estimate: What percentage of Americans ages 60 to 75 can run 5 miles in less than 45 minutes ?

I have posted variations of this same question before. Every time I hope that somebody points me toward reliable data. It's easy to figure out how a runner is doing against other runners his/her age, but I can't find information on runner performance versus the abilities of the general population.

After I come back from a run, I ask myself the same question, and it's a motivating factor that older runners should ask themselves:

How many guys my age can run this distance in this amount of time ?

Nah.

I was running low 8s for 5ks at age 62-64 and usually finished 2nd or 3rd in may age group in local races.

Now I hope for 9s at age 68

Based on the population where I live we might have 10,000 to 15,000 people in that age in my county, including women. My running club has a 5 mile and 2 mile race every year. We get 3-5 runners 60-75 every year under 45 minutes for the 5, including 1 from outside our area, all male. 2 or 3 that run the 2 mile race could do it, and 1 female and a couple more males could if they could stay healthy. Maybe a couple more that don't do our race, but right around that .01% range. Maybe a little higher male only.

This is an excellent question from the Original Poster. Only problem is that the age range specified, 60-75, is awfully large, seeing a significant slowdown during that age range for most "serious-runner" older folks. Below is my experience with four half-marathons during much of that age range (I am male Age 69 now; sorry, do not have similar 8K history). This is similar experience with other age-folks I follow. Reasonably similar training mileage and intensity over the entire period for me, meaning no great training differences to account for the slow-down. And no great course differences, either. It is primarily age, sorry-to-report. But the upside is, the mental and physical health benefits feel just as great as they ever did, and the most important thing is to just keep at it ! THANKS again for the very good question, and as they say, "your mileage may vary".
My Age and Pace (Half-Marathons)
Age 59: 7:30 pace
Age 61: 7:53 pace
Age 67: 8:55 pace
Age 69: 9:22 pace

Less than 1% / guaranteed. But it is not something to brag about …. I am 53, I could start my watch / eat a combo meal from chick-Fil-a and still run 5 miles under 45 min …. Not that big of a deal / shoot less than 1% of Americans could run 5 miles without stopping - guaranteed

Are you kidding? I'm 61 & can't even run a mile without stopping let alone 5 effing miles! Lol.

This old buck has post-traumatic osteoarthritis (ankle, knee & hip) & other age-related musculoskeletal degenerative issues from decades of competitive running. I had to give running a few years ago & I'm now regulated to a sad walk/jog combo of maybe 3 miles total 1-2 times per week at a local open space park. 😕

And it probably doesn't help that I'm packing on a whopping 175 lbs on a 5'6" midget frame - though I'm getting fairly strong & muscular from lifting 6 days a week now.

I'm 61 and just completed my daily training run 5.71 miles in 47 minutes. So I know I can if I raced it.

My track workout Saturday 3x1 6;37 6;41 7;03

my guess without seeing any responses so far

2.5% or less

Why do you care about percentages of the population? Of course 9:00 pace is possible, easily. 9 minute pace is actually sort of a joke, and I'm 66. The question is can YOU do it and the answer depends on doing the (minimal) work, not your "wish" to maintain a pace.

This is why I stay away from that masters thread with the 19K posts.

1/10th of 1% of Americans at the most could do it (prob closer to 1/30th of 1%)

I hope in my previous post I did not diminish a 60-75 year old running a sub 45 min 5 miler. 60-75 is quite a range. I am confident at 60 I will be able to do this but at 75 I doubt it / I would be stoked if I can run 5 miles without stopping by age 75 /

I agree that it is a wide range where performance falls a cliff from youngest to oldest, but that doesn't matter because the type of data I'm looking for has never been compiled or estimated by a reliable source.

Tough question. There is a big difference from 60-65, and a huge one going on to 75.

I'm just about to be 65 (next month) and I'd be about 33 min for 5 miles in an all out time trial, but I've been running competitively my whole life.

I'd guess 60-65 most males who run could run sub 9:00 pace. I've got guess that is still less than 1 in 1000.

Looking at the last 8 events for the three local parkruns near Seattle I found 11 participants 60-75 years old who run them at less than 9 minute pace, yours truly included. The 2022 population of Seattle Googled at 3,489,000 so 11/3,489,000 = 0.000315%. I am guessing that half of the 11 can keep that pace for another two miles.

Any tips for staying healthy and training as you get older?

Finally we have some numbers: the 60-75 age group accounts for 1/6 of the total population, so you'll need to multiply your estimate by a factor 6, giving ~0.002%

The final missing piece of the puzzle is how many 60-75 yo could have run that pace but did not bother. Since you have looked at 8 events and it is expected that most of the people that can run a 45 5miler at that age is a dedicated runner, I would expect that the actual number is no more than 2-3 times that number, which would be less than 0.01% or 1/10000.
To summarize: it is very likely that the range would be between 1/10K and 1/50K.

I'll be 65 in a few months and last summer ran a ten miler in 1:26 on 35-40 miles a week of training over about 4 months. I'm 6ft and about 190lbs. and bulkier than most runners. Guessing there will be a big difference between 65 and 70 though.

Same as the death rate for covid, so about one in 10,000.

Did you mean 60-65? 60-75 is a huge range and we old folks degrade at an accelerating rate.

I think the percentage for 60-65 is below 5%. If you really meant 60-75, I would estimate less than 1%.

I am 70. I think I could do 5 in just under 45 because most days I run 7 at under 10/mile. If I laced up my Streakflys and pushed, I'm confident I could run five miles in under 45 minutes. But at this point I don't think I could regularly train an 9 minutes per mile.