Galen Rupp (and Rhonex Kipruto, Sara Hall, Molly Seidel, Senbere Teferi) Running NYC Half Marathon next month

Is Molly Seidel finally going to run a competitive time (like a 1:06) or is she instead going to run a hobby jogger time of 1:10 and claim it was "marathon pace?"

Showed up when it mattered most. Which carries a lot more weight than her time at Mesa half or whatever.

It will be an interesting few weeks for Mantz. 3k this weekend, 10k at The TEN on 3/5, and a half on 3/20. Hopefully he'll be in the mix for all his races.

Rupp ran Chicago in 2:06 after the half marathon.

This is the issue with American distance running. Yes, he won in Atlanta...against other Americans. And what happens in the Olympics? The Great One flops to 8th place and takes second in a Chicago marathon that had to compete with other majors all happening at the same time.

It is bewildering to me why we still cannot have any American born athletes consistently compete on the international level without the help of Al's special sauce.

Allow me to reiterate, because you are correct in the sense that he shows up, but he only shows up against select Americans in manicured fields designed for him to run well. I don't even think it would be a hot take to say that Mantz, even Fisher, could take Galen in a half right now and Mantz up to the thon.

Best part of the press release realizing Desi will not be doing commentary

On this course I’d be shocked if Connor or Rupp run faster that 61:40. Expect Rhonex (if she’s not 5kg heavy like he’s been) or another E African to win in about 60:35.

Nobody is running under 60 minutes on that course unless you bring in the best.

Why would she go to the well for the Mesa half marathon lol. She lives 2 hours from the most competitive half in AZ, she would be crazy not to go and use it as a tune up, she'd be even crazier to race it solo on a non record-eligible course. She could have run 1:06 at mesa in her sleep(200 feet downhill, no uphill perfect weather, tons of male pacers) but why.

Spot on. Dont forget his win in the global field that is the OLYMPIC TRIALS!

Well, Kipruto will be able to go out for a jog by himself. Rupp will have plenty of competition for 2nd. There's a lot of sub-1:02 guys in this field. Ches is there too.

The video I saw of the race showed her running by herself with no pacers. A 2:25 marathoner is never going to run a 1:06 half marathon. I don't care how much downhill it has.

Again, a 2:25 marathoner can not say 1:10 is marathon pace.

She won that race. It was a training run for her. No need to put in an all out effort. Save that for when it counts.

This seems confused.

1) Rupp ran the Olympic marathon in a field including a lot of good runners. (Twice, actually, and once he was on the podium)

2) Americans can't compete on the international level. (Except, apparently Rupp)

3) Rupp only shows up against manicured fields (contradicted by 1). A couple of Americans are plausibly as good or better than Rupp at the moment (contradicting 2).

Okay, nitpick all you want, but here's what it boils down to:

Rupp was the sole bright spot for male American marathoning since he took it up but that time has passed. My confusion lies in the continued speculation on his results when he will never produce a time faster than 2:03 again.

Meaning:

He will not ever be in contention for a world major marathon title again.

Which leads me to wonder how:

The United States, with unlimited access to altitude, latest track, shoe, and training technology, illicit training boosters that everyone else is using, and time to train, cannot be competitive in a fast, loaded, international marathon

This isn't an anti Rupp post. This is simply a question to as why we even speculate on male American marathoners when we simply can't compete with the international powerhouses

Sandy P has a point. Molly has run quite well in a few challenging marathon environments being the olympics trials which was very hilly and quite windy that day, then in Tokyo it was quite a bit hotter than desired, so warm that only half the Kenyan/Ethiopian crew finished the race which helped her finish third. Then she ran pretty well at New York which again is a challenging course that isn't ideal for racing fast. She recently ran the Mesa Half Marathon which is downhill, she faded a bit the last several miles to run 1:10 so it didn't look like a strong run. Many other people just ran that or better in Houston last month, and Mesa is a net downhill course. Molly doesn't seem to have the wheels to be top American on a flat or shorter race than a grueling marathon course. She was 8th in USATF cross champs in January so apparently she's not at all competitive with the top group of Americans at 10k. If the conditions are not ideal to run fast she will do well as she seems to keep the same pace no matter how bad the conditions are or how challenging the course is, but if it turns into a track race she will not do well compared to other people.

Please see Chicago 2010, Wanjiru v. Kebede. In my book the greatest marathon finish ever, and it utilized Wanjiru "hiding in plain sight" to catch Kebede off guard.

Rupp is the best US runner ever and deserves straight respect for his accomplishments, longevity, and letting his running do the talking.

What am I missing? Didn't Rupp run something like 60:20 back in 2009 on this course? I think he was just out of college when he did it. He should be sub 60 if it is the same course.

Why is that bewildering? It's a dirty sport.