ScienceIsMagic wrote:
It is hard to quantify. Track surfaces were different then too. Training is a little different too.
But if we look at indoor NCAA times from a few years ago, there were typically around 30 runners sub 4:00 mile and only a few below 3:57. This year there are around 30 sub 3:57. Before there were around 30-40 sub 8:00 3000m. This year there are more than 30 sub 7:50 runners. The tracks have not changed. There was no drastic turnover in NCAA track coaches. The shoes became much more available this year.
You can view the NCAA times by year here. Keep in mind that some are converted for altitude and different styles of track, so the actual times are usually slower if there is a character beside the time (@ or #).
You have to remove all seniors from tfrrs lists this year to compare to past years because everyone has an extra year of eligibility. Yes there are 30 runners around 3:57 but only 16 of them should still be competing in the NCAA in normal circumstances. New shoes only seem to make a second difference in a mile from recent years and that's assuming that people aren't generally getting faster over time, which it's more than reasonable to think there are more fast runners today than a few years, and quite a few more fast runners than a decade ago. Just like in 10 years from now there will be even more fast runners than right now.