Seems like the point of going to college for someone like Kessler would be to get into a position where he can run as a pro. He's already done that and got a contract that most pros would kill for.
If his pro career goes badly, he's still young enough and will have enough money to go get a degree, and from a good academic university rather than a running school.
I can see no downside at all for Kessler.
High hopes wrote:
Seems like the point of going to college for someone like Kessler would be to get into a position where he can run as a pro. He's already done that and got a contract that most pros would kill for.
If his pro career goes badly, he's still young enough and will have enough money to go get a degree, and from a good academic university rather than a running school.
I can see no downside at all for Kessler.
I might be wrong, but I thought he was already attending college at NAU last fall, just not year round full time, and running pro instead of on the team.
knowing howitgoes wrote:
Said it in the summer, and I'll say it again now (and I hope I'm ultimately proven wrong).
But the advice to turn pro at 18, for this still maturing, very talented athlete, was 100% incorrect.
His parents, Ron W, Willis, etc, have done him a disservice.
He obviously could only take the advice of the experienced folks around him.
They should have understood that it's hard enough to turn pro AFTER college, let alone right out of high school.
He gains nothing by turning pro at 18, except some extra pocket change, in the long run, and that's if he makes it.
He could have been at NAU (or anywhere on a good college team), maturing, growing his aerobic strength, bonding with his teammates, maturing as a racer, etc etc etc etc.
Instead, he has a very limited training group, with guys 8 to 25 years older, he has the immediate pressure of a pro mentality, where a lot of it is about money for him, his agent, his sponsor, etc, and the pressure and disenchantment that might bring if he is running mediocrely (for a pro), which is a high likelihood for a few years.
he had an incredible track season last year, and he is the future. But he is not the NOW.
I hope he's mentally and emotionally strong enough to weather the next 3 or so years.
And I still can't understand why the folks around him did him so wrong!
Weird losers mentality to hide out in college. Reality hits you hard when you eventually meet the pros after spending years in rec league.
Whenever these threads come up, I just figure that the OP has spent too much time watching SportsCenter.
"Going pro" in running isn't like going pro in a team sport. It's not like basketball, where going pro too early might mean that you're (1) stuck on the bench, (2) having to play in a foreign country where you don't speak the language, at a very young age, or (3) you're getting tossed around by physically more developed athletes. For runners, there is no inherent difference in the training or competition for a pro. You run when and where you want, against whatever competition you and your coach feel is appropriate. What's better, you don't have the pressure to compete in 4 seasons.
I can think of only one valid reason not to go pro as a runner, and that's if you think you can sign for significantly more by waiting. Usually that situation applies to runners already in college.
$500k/yr and he doesn't have to run 3 seasons if that isn't working for him?
What an idiot!
/s
holterskolter2 wrote:
Michael Slagowski
German Fernandez
Lukas Verzbikas
Just some names of people who (hindsight being 20/20), if they had a chance to go pro out of high school, they should have. If they had, they would have had some money to show for their moment at the top. Instead, they tried the NCAA route, and it didn't pan out, for various reasons.
Meanwhile: Evan Jager. Does anybody think he made the wrong decision? He transitioned well from high school to pro. I'm not convinced going to NCAA would have been a better career choice for him.
Also meanwhile: Mary Cain. It went poorly for her. Is that because she was just done either way, or is it because she went pro? I'm not sure that is knowable. But what is knowable is that she cashed in, where going NCAA was no guarantee that she would have gone pro later. Certainly with her level of running at 4 years out of high school, she wasn't going to get much of an offer, if any.
Going pro out of high school is a gamble. Going to NCAAs when you had the chance to go pro is also a gamble. These youngsters need to weigh their options. If you could somehow know that you were going to peak at 18, going pro is definitely the right route.
We can certainly name lots of runners who developed well in the NCAAs and went from fast to truly elite. For them, it was the right route. I would say for most athletes it was the right route. But that isn't ever going to be universal.
1) jager did in fact go to college for a year at wisconsin. Only reason he went pro when he did is because jerry left to star the pro gig and Evan wanted to stay with him.
2) there have been a few other examples where skipping the NCAA system has worked out, the most prominent being Allyson Felix. You would be exceedingly hard pressed to find someone who would argue with a straight face that someone who won an olympic silver and back to back world golds while she was a college aged athlete would have been better off in the college ranks. Every situation is different and if the 500k number is right, it is pretty clear that hobbs made a very justifiable choice.
800 dude wrote:
Whenever these threads come up, I just figure that the OP has spent too much time watching SportsCenter.
"Going pro" in running isn't like going pro in a team sport. It's not like basketball, where going pro too early might mean that you're (1) stuck on the bench, (2) having to play in a foreign country where you don't speak the language, at a very young age, or (3) you're getting tossed around by physically more developed athletes. For runners, there is no inherent difference in the training or competition for a pro. You run when and where you want, against whatever competition you and your coach feel is appropriate. What's better, you don't have the pressure to compete in 4 seasons.
I can think of only one valid reason not to go pro as a runner, and that's if you think you can sign for significantly more by waiting. Usually that situation applies to runners already in college.
Well said.
Calm tf down! Its not that serious dude. Its not life or death. Dude is only 18 and if he is still running sh!tty times at 25 then come back and write the same sh!t. Lmfao!
Apustajan wrote:
this is a stupid opinion because america is the only place in the world where people have this weird college system. the rest of the world is fine in sports! better in some like running. this is just closedmindedness.
Yeah, but in those countries you can compete on your university team AND have a pro contract. It's only in the US where you have to keep amateur status.
OP -- I think it's beyond disingenuous to call his contract "pocket change." This is the stuff college football/basketball fans say when guys leave early. & maybe those guys don't have lengthy NBA/NFL careers but they get the process started & start earning real money. They can end up in Europe making decent money. Hobbs never would have gotten that money back & can develop just fine under, literally, a college coach that has tons of experience developing 18-22 year olds. He didn't make a wrong choice. He prioritized himself. If you turned pro early & didn't quite make it, it's probably that you never would have made it. Would an extra year of college basketball help you develop more than a year with an NBA squad or their GLeague affiliate? No. Sure, running is different but he would have been leading every workout & has a good group to train with now. That's the path he chose, & he's getting paid for it.
This is the stupidest thread ever. Hobbs is still attending college at NAU, and will presumably get a degree someday. Better make the bank now by running for Adidas, rather than running for some clothes and shoes in the NCAA.
I guess he may be missing out on some NCAA team camaraderie, but there are many other places in life to build friendships.
Its not like Hobbs picked some random pompous a$$hole internet coach to guide him, or his mom. He has a real team with VNTC and a real coach in Ron Warhurst.
Tellin it like it is wrote:
This is the stupidest thread ever. Hobbs is still attending college at NAU, and will presumably get a degree someday. Better make the bank now by running for Adidas, rather than running for some clothes and shoes in the NCAA.
I guess he may be missing out on some NCAA team camaraderie, but there are many other places in life to build friendships.
He's not missing out on friendships. He's hanging with NAU peeps, hiking with NAU runners up mountains on his instagram.
How old is Hobbs? How many miles has he been running? He just ran 3:57.10 (a PR) and didn't look great, he looked heavy. But none of his teammates have performed all that well either. This is to be expected. They appear to be in a heavy training block and what would you expect them to be doing? Are they peaking? Are they trying to be race sharp for indoors? Ron is obviously old school. As long as Hobbs doesn't stop rock climbing (one of his advantages), he'll be fine.
holterskolter2 wrote:
Michael Slagowski
German Fernandez
Lukas Verzbikas
Just some names of people who (hindsight being 20/20), if they had a chance to go pro out of high school, they should have. If they had, they would have had some money to show for their moment at the top. Instead, they tried the NCAA route, and it didn't pan out, for various reasons.
Meanwhile: Evan Jager. Does anybody think he made the wrong decision? He transitioned well from high school to pro. I'm not convinced going to NCAA would have been a better career choice for him.
Also meanwhile: Mary Cain. It went poorly for her. Is that because she was just done either way, or is it because she went pro? I'm not sure that is knowable. But what is knowable is that she cashed in, where going NCAA was no guarantee that she would have gone pro later. Certainly with her level of running at 4 years out of high school, she wasn't going to get much of an offer, if any.
Going pro out of high school is a gamble. Going to NCAAs when you had the chance to go pro is also a gamble. These youngsters need to weigh their options. If you could somehow know that you were going to peak at 18, going pro is definitely the right route.
We can certainly name lots of runners who developed well in the NCAAs and went from fast to truly elite. For them, it was the right route. I would say for most athletes it was the right route. But that isn't ever going to be universal.
Evan Jager went to Wisconsin-Madison for a year. He left after his freshman year to follow JS out west. So, although he didn't stay the entire NCAA route, he at least tried it.
It’s February 6th.
He’ll be fine when it matters. Warhurst knows what he’s doing.
It's tough to speculate on his contract, but he had the olympic standard. One of roughly 6 guys in the country. And he was very young. He is probably around 6 figures per year or more, and probably for many years. He can go to any race he wants and not limited to having to run a conference meet, regional meet, or the NCAA championship meet. He can go to any regular season race he wants to and likely US championships, and for him hopefully make US teams at some point. He has a group of guys he trains with, much like an NCAA team. I say he made the right decision.
What benefit would he have by going to the NCAA? In the NCAA he won't make much money (NIA probably wouldn't net him as much as his adidas contract), he wouldn't have any better competition and actually a less flexible racing schedule, I really can't think of a benefit for him to have gone to NCAA instead of doing any race he wants while getting paid. His stock isn't going to rise the next few years to a level that would allow him to recoup the money he would have passed up by going to the NCAA.
Certainly seems to be off to a solid start this season. In slight defense of the OP, he seemed to just be restating his prediction instead of making it sound like the 3:57.10 confirmed him to be right. Now, in ridicule of the OP, Hobbs isn't making pocket change. He's making very good money. It was a no-brainer decision even if his pro career fizzles out.
I keep waiting for someone to make a clever Calvin pun. I am not witty enough.
Efrenl... Completely correct
I cannot believe people on here still.. Progress is not always linear, and he still Pr'ed Indoors.
and he ran under 8 flat in a workout like situation last 1K in 2:30, and last year he ran 8:39.x two mile Outdoors. Plus, his work load has been upped from a year ago.
I kind of think Ron knows exactly what he is doing. Willis medaled twice at 1500 in Olympics. I think people get baffled by the "One off" 3:34.x 1500, That IS the one off, but that kind of ability rarely just comes and goes, I said Rarely. Unless you get hurt. His prelim at TRials was incredibly impressive, and he ran out of gas in a long year, and maybe just too big a moment in semis.
Here are his marks, I would not press the panic button yet.
Not even close, you know who would kill for this consistency? Murphy LOL, hows that going lately?
Starting with the
3:57.66 mile
3:40.xx 1500
8:39 Two mile , with blazing 26 last 220
3:40.xx 1500M
1:49.67 scratch 800M winning
3:34.x 1500M
1:47.9 relay leg as part of one day triple
3:45.x Pre Lim, flying at the end
3:45.x semi, did not qualify
2022
7:59.x 3K specifically and perfectly executed..2:30 last 1000M I believe
3:59.x Mile...did look flat
3:57.10
There are not a lot of "Stinkers" in there for a pretty young guy, who two seasons ago was a 4:23 type.
Plus its his third trip to NY and back in 34 days(got there Friday night), as an 18 year old, turning 19 soon. Not an excuse at all, just is. Travel today is not what it was either, it can be lengthy and delayed.
I wouldn't give up the ship yet. Also , with the deal he got, NOT going pro would have been the hugest mistake ever. You step in one hole training, get injured for an extended time, there goes that money, for quite a while.
rojo wrote:
From a development aspect, I'm for athletes staying in college. That being said, this thread is crazy.
knowing howitgoes wrote:
He gains nothing by turning pro at 18, except some extra pocket change,
False. the rumor is he got north of 500k per year. Unless you come from big family money, getting a guarantee of a couple million bucks is not pocket change.
So let's say he's guaranteed 500k for 5 years, that's 2.5 million. Would you rather have 2.5 million or the opportunity to win 3-4 NCAA team championships?
I think it would be DUMB to take the money. That NCAA experience is priceless. You can make NIL money while in college to cover some of the loss, and if you run well that 500k contract will be there when you graduate.
Now he spends all his time with *****deleted by mods as it was off topic***** Nick Willis and an 80 year old coach. That doesn't sound fun.