NCAA Individ. Champ Predictions

1. Withrow - If the pace is too balls out, he may slip a few spots. His finish is unbelievable. I see him winning as Keith Kelly in 2001, when he reportedly finished in 54'sh.

2. Bairu - Will be with Withrow the whole way, but will get outkicked.

3. McDougal - Not good enough in last 800M, after taking/sharing the lead throughout.

4. Kiplagat - He'll be gapped behind McDougal though.

5. Boit - Gets outkicked by Kiplagat.

6. Kosgei - Continuing string of team contenders.

7. Schoolmeester - Colorado always has a top placer.

8. Cheseret - Awesome runner for top team.

9. Solinsky - Was "only" 16th last year. Hard to pick him over proven top performers from last year.

10. Muntanya - Arizona #2 man.

11. Jefferson - "Only" regionals, but 1 second behind Benninger shows he's peaking.

12. Maiyo

13. Nelson

14. Olinger

15. Thorne

16. Benninger

17. Eagon

18. Fagan

19. Manzano

20. Robles

Seriously, how can you slapdicks actually justify putting Bairu at 9th? What did he place last year at regionals and Jim Drews, I can tell you right now he didn't win either race. Actually he lost at Griak too. This year at Griak he ran way from Rohatinsky (the prenats winner by over 20 secs). The he comes back at the Big 10 meet, the 2nd meet he actually ran hard and runs 23:31. He beat Solinsky, who beat the entire Kenyan C team at Notre Dame, by 25 seconds and set a new course record. Yeah McDougal set the Pre Nats record, well anyone who was there in Oct will tell you that course was harder than a track and the whole field ran fast. Bairu on the other hand, ran his quick times on a soggy Minnesota course. Here are my top 5 reasons why Bairu will win this race.

5. He has the Best 10K track PR in the race.

4. He's even better on grass.

3. No one has been within 20 seconds of him this year when he actually raced.

2. We looked amayzing at Big 10's and Griak.

1. He won last year and he's in better shape this year.

I would say there are only 4-5 guys with a chance of winning.

1. Bairu- reason stated above, overwhelming favorite.

2. Cheseret- he's got the ability to win it, just never runs exceptional in cross.

3. Boit- I think he and Bairu will go 1-2

4. Kiplagat- he's better than what he ran at pre nats

5. McDougal- he's going to find out that he can't run away from guys like Boit, Bairu, and Kiplagat. He will do the early work through 7K hopefully he hangs on for top 5.

I agree. Whoever thinks that Bairu hasn't been "dominating" this year has not been paying attention. His two races at Bolstad (Griak and Big Tens) were just about as dominating as they could have been. Somebody said that reasonable assumptions could be made about the fitness of somebody based on how they finish in any race - that is absurd. To think that Bairu was racing all-out at Drews and Regionals is laughable. Bairu, Solinsky and Withrow will roll at Nats!

1. Bairu

2. Withrow

3. Boit

4. Kiplagat

5. McDougal

6. Solinsky

7. Cheseret

8. Forrest

9. Fagan

10. Rohatinsky

11. Schoolmeester

12. Nelson

13. Aria

14. Keating

15. Pifer

16. Eagon

17. Kosgei

18. Mutanya

19. Jefferson

20. Maiyo

21. Chesang

22. Cormier

23. Ford

24. Strang

25. True

Terre Haute just got pounded with about an inch of rain last night. Course looks good.. that is if traffic is low so it can dry a bit til teams start getting into town on Sat. but with rain for weds. and thursday that doesn't look to likely. So it may be a bit muddy this year as well.

results in the Haute wrote:

Terre Haute just got pounded with about an inch of rain last night. Course looks good.. that is if traffic is low so it can dry a bit til teams start getting into town on Sat. but with rain for weds. and thursday that doesn't look to likely. So it may be a bit muddy this year as well.

For the top contenders, this hurts Cheseret the most. Team-wise (serious contenders), it probably helps Colorado.

if it's especially muddy or cold i guarantee a win for bairu.

Bairu

And down the stretch they come. It will be a horse race in Indiana. Woohoo!

If anybody was offended by my original post, I apologize. I realize that there were some unsubstantiated remarks within my commentary (especially regarding Wes Keating) and I'd like to apologize for those. I simply wanted to infuse a little bit of humor into my post and I made a poor decision. I respect everybody who has qualified for nationals and especially a guy like Wes who has overcome so much (injury last year, constant accusations, etc.).

With that said, back to the fun!

If the course is a sloppy one, I would definitely favor Bairu over any of the Kenyans, however, maybe not over McD. They both appear very strong this year and both have had some outstanding performances. This race is wide open.

I am a little surprised that Colorado is not getting more love as a team contender. Granted they do not have the big guns that a team like Arkansas or Wisconsin have, but they are the defending champs and are undefeated this year (something Wisco can't say). For the same reason that many of you are picking Simon to defend his championship, I feel like CU should be picked by more people (i.e. they are the defending champ and have dominated their races this year).

With that said, I'm sticking with Arkansas for the win...

Hell, it's been raining since last night. Figure about 24 hours worth of rain with a cold front and freezing temps coming in behind it, who knows what the course will look like in a few days.

1. Bairu

2. Cheseret

3. Boit

4. Kiplagat

5. Mutanya

6. Fagan

7. Kosgei

8. Forrest

9. Fagan

10. Chesang

This is in order---exact!

1 Boit

2 Bairu

3 McDougal

4 Keating

5 Mutai

6 Cheseret

7 Nef

8 Solinsky

9 Withrow

10 Cormier

1. Bairu- Has dominated all year long, plus he's the defending champ.

2. McDougal- Has looked great all year and he broke Torres' record by 20secs.

3. Kiplagat- Continues to improve with every race.

4. Boit

5. Solinsky- He surprises me every time he races.

6. Nelson- Buffs are always ready in November.

7. Keating- Whether he is clean or not, he's fast.

8. Schoolmeister- Not quite as good as the fairytale in 2004.

9. Withrow- I'm guessing he's running.

10. Fagan- The record holder at VCP should be top 10.

11. Rohatinsky

12. Cheseret

13. Jefferson

14. Forrest

15. Okuti

As for the team winner-- Wisconsin over Arkansas scoring around 70pts. For the last two podium spots it will be Colorado and Iona.

1. Bairu- Has dominated all year long, plus he's the defending champ.

2. McDougal- Has looked great all year and he broke Torres' record by 20secs.

3. Kiplagat- Continues to improve with every race.

4. Boit

5. Solinsky- He surprises me every time he races.

6. Nelson- Buffs are always ready in November.

7. Keating- Whether he is clean or not, he's fast.

8. Schoolmeister- Not quite as good as the fairytale in 2004.

9. Withrow- I'm guessing he's running.

10. Fagan- The record holder at VCP should be top 10.

11. Rohatinsky

12. Cheseret

13. Jefferson

14. Forrest

15. Okuti

As for the team winner-- Wisconsin over Arkansas scoring around 70pts. For the last two podium spots it will be Colorado and Iona.

why are all these people picking Withrow to win/finish top 2-3

he's not even one of the top 2 runners on his team, much less the NCAA!

14. McDougall

theOTHERwhitemeat wrote:

he still hasn't lost a meet when HE was racing...

This crap is stupid. I never understand coaches that enter people in meets and have them run sub-maximally. Why not just workout that day instead? Screw the rankings; everyone knows who the real contenders are. That said, I don't buy all this "I wasn't trying out there today." Bairu probably wasn't racing all-out, and he deserves great respect as the defending champ, but Keating, Fagan, McDougal, Kiplagat, and Boit are sickeningly good and have all improved SUSBTANTIALLY.

Who was tossing Fagan's name in there least year? And Keating? McDougal is clearly much, much better. Give these other guys some credit.

Boaz won in dominating fashion in 2001, then everyone else got better and the next year he was caught and beaten by 6 people. Similarly, Torres was Boaz's you know what one year and the next a nation champion.

That's why they run these freaking races.

As far as Wisonsin's effort last weekend, think of regionals for them as a prelim for nationals. They won the meet and QUALIFIED for the final with as little effort as possible. Isn't that the goal in prelims? Why race two all out 10K's in 10 days if you don't have to? At the same time Arkansas did the same thing, they however had the luxury of jogging and resting people in the weakest region in the country. The only meets this entire season were Wisco half-assed it was regionals and Jim Drews. They use that meet to fill their schedual and give some of their B guys a chance to race, while a few A guys get in a tempo effort. The system makes perfect sense to me, but unless they come up with the W, Jerry will be trashed on these boards yet again.

Forrest,

How can an overated guy end up in the top 5ive?...hmmmmmmmmmmm