"My goal is focused on being #1, I don't really understand why I would shoot for less than that"- Cole Hocker

OK well I thought it was obvious I was joking because Flagpole kept labeling Hocker as special and then more special than Centro. At a certain point most of the guys who make the Olympics at 1500m are sort of special so it is a fool’s errand to argue at great lengths about who is more special and the subtle shades or gradations of special especially when some peak early and some do not plus the data is not sufficient to ascertain much of this yet.

rorimc wrote:

poliwhirl wrote:

These bitches is never satisfied

It was the weakest Championship 5000m field in 40 years. There is no argument. Credit to Eamonn but he beat a weak field. Eamonn has a 13:19 best so a weak field was the only chance he had.

By definition, isn’t the world champion the best in the world on that day…your definition of weak/strong being irrelevant?

webber wrote:

Hocker is Webb

Webb was a time trialist who did not know how to race in a championship.

Hocker is the opposite.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

rorimc wrote:

Yeah well you might be special if you think Hocker will win an Olympic gold medal as Centro has though. But seriously the only reason Centro was losing to Hocker was age. We shall see. It is very easy to label people. Falcon was special too.

^What a dick.

Hocker is faster and more accomplished at age 20 than Centro was, and 20 year old Hocker would have been competitive with any iteration of Centro.

Hocker will break Grant Fisher’s 5000 American Record in 2025.

I personally think 2016 Centro beats 2021 Hocker 8times out of 10 and if it’s in a scenario like USA Trials or a Milrose - basically a US level meet - he’s closer to winning 10 times out of 10. 2016 Centro was really on a different level. That being said I could see Cole eventually being better than 2016 Centro.

rorimc wrote:

What I see is Eamonn Coghlan in super spikes. By that I mean he may run 3:29 and 13:02 before he is done but he won’t ever be the best runner in the world. But let him shoot to be the best. He has some rare ability to shift gear.

I think you're really shortchanging him on the 13:02.

Maybe 3:29 -- I wouldn't be shocked if he ran 3:27-8 thought. But he can certainly break 13 in the next 2-3 years if he wants to. He ran 13:18 about an hour after winning the 1500 at NCAAs when he was 19 (almost 20). It's pretty widely accepted that he was pretty low-mileage in HS as well, so I would say he has a ton of room for growth. I think he can break the American 3000 and 5000 records if he goes for them. Lagat's 3:27.40 might be out of reach.

Chances for ARs:

1500 (3:27.40) - 10%

Mile (3:46.91) - 50%

3000 (7:29) - 60%

5000 (12:53.60) - 50%

High hopes wrote:

I'll be interested to find out if he's changing anything in his training now he's a pro. He obviously can't rely on his NCAA sit and kick tactics in an era where one or more of Jakob, Tim, and Stewie are going to try and run the legs off the kickers every race. In any case, he should be a pretty regular fixture the top 6 of international races, he might even break 3:30 this year

We’ll see. Tim ran the way he did in 2019 because he and his coach knew nobody was close to him. In 2021 I feel like he did it because he didn’t trust his kick with his hamstring. I think a 3:40+ winning time is very unlikely, but Tim may not push the middle laps again. Jakob has generally been passive to a certain degree. If it’s a 3:32-34 type race, Hocker is best served sitting and kicking. If it’s super-fast just run smart and PB like in Tokyo. His last 100 finish is his biggest difference-maker, but there’s no reason to believe that’s the only way he can race.

What's the inventive for Jakob, Tim, or Stewie to allow. A race to go slow? Jakob and Tim can calve up gold and silver between them, and Stewie has one hope of a medal which is running hard from the gun and hoping everyone else drops off. Hocker is going to have to make a move like Kerr. Not saying he can't do it, just that he can't hope to medal by waiting for a 3:35 race in the near future. If I had to right now, I'd put money on +ocker finishing his career with at least one global medal but probably no gold's

Stewy is overrated. He’s good at diamond leagues but he underperforms in championships that consist of 3 rounds. Dude can’t even trust his own kick in the early rounds so he pushes the pace too hard and is gassed by the final..

Flagpole wrote:

Hocker could end up being a better runner than Centrowitz and never win ANY Olympic medal.

Uh no way.

pepedeme wrote:

Stewy is overrated. He’s good at diamond leagues but he underperforms in championships that consist of 3 rounds. Dude can’t even trust his own kick in the early rounds so he pushes the pace too hard and is gassed by the final..

Somewhat true but he's still young and was 7th in the 1500. I think his better event will prove to be the 5000.

No way to know where he ends up. Certainly is reasonable for him to be shooting for the top after winning the US trials and being in the hunt at the OG final at the tender age of 20. He is a smart racer, has a vicious kick and looks like he has a lot of room to get faster in rabbitted races for time. I do get the sense that he will learn from those who came before him and be a better than Centro and Webb. Centro always seemed to phone it in early in the season and peak just in the nick of time to medal. Webb was a head case and let Scott Raczko wreck his career.

seasoned ranker wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Hocker could end up being a better runner than Centrowitz and never win ANY Olympic medal.

Uh no way.

Way! Winning medals has to do with the competition. Are all Olympic Gold medal winners better than Paul Tergat? Um...nope!

Flagpole wrote:

seasoned ranker wrote:

Uh no way.

Way! Winning medals has to do with the competition. Are all Olympic Gold medal winners better than Paul Tergat? Um...nope!

I agree with Flagpole. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Centro’s best days are behind him, and that Hocker winds up running 1:44/3:28/3:46/7:27/12:50, winning 3 world championship medals including one gold, winning multiple Diamond League races, winning numerous U.S. titles over the next twelve years, winning the 3k at World Indoors in 2029, etc., but never places higher than 4th in his four Olympic appearances—you don’t think he could be regarded as better overall than Centro? I do.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Way! Winning medals has to do with the competition. Are all Olympic Gold medal winners better than Paul Tergat? Um...nope!

I agree with Flagpole. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Centro’s best days are behind him, and that Hocker winds up running 1:44/3:28/3:46/7:27/12:50, winning 3 world championship medals including one gold, winning multiple Diamond League races, winning numerous U.S. titles over the next twelve years, winning the 3k at World Indoors in 2029, etc., but never places higher than 4th in his four Olympic appearances—you don’t think he could be regarded as better overall than Centro? I do.

With those accomplishments only Lagat would be left as a greater US middle distance runner based on times and medals. (Not going to get into the generational debate regarding Ryun). Hocker looks to have the talent to best Centro, but Lagat is next level. Maybe Hocker can best Lagat too. Looking forward to seeing him try.

rorimc wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Hocker is more special.

Yeah well you might be special if you think Hocker will win an Olympic gold medal as Centro has though. But seriously the only reason Centro was losing to Hocker was age. We shall see. It is very easy to label people. Falcon was special too.

Not saying it’ll ever happen again, but a Rio 2016 type race heavily heavily favors hocker and his closing speed. Even a 3:35-3:40 tactical type affair gives him a good shot IMO.

I don’t think he’s gonna take any golds this cycle, as ingebrigsten still has room to and will improve, but I do think he’s a medal threat because of his ability to perform well in a tactical race and pretty well in an all out effort as well.

CopperRunner wrote:

Not saying it’ll ever happen again, but a Rio 2016 type race heavily heavily favors hocker and his closing speed. Even a 3:35-3:40 tactical type affair gives him a good shot IMO.

I don’t think he’s gonna take any golds this cycle, as ingebrigsten still has room to and will improve, but I do think he’s a medal threat because of his ability to perform well in a tactical race and pretty well in an all out effort as well.

It's going to be some time before we see championship races revert to slow affairs. Ingebrigtsen knows he can run away from everyone in the field except Cheruiyot and his father/coach has openly said he doesn't have the best speed, so why would he ever want to get involved in a three lap jog before trying to kick? It's the same for Cheruiyot. Then you have McSweyn, who is not in their class, but also has no kick so pushes every race from the gun. He will make it stick maybe one time out of every ten, but that will always be his best chance of a top-3 place.

The upshot is that Hocker and others are going to need to adapt and be prepared to run sub-3:30 in every major global race until those three retire or move on. Josh Kerr has accepted that, as has Jake Wightman who has changed his training in recognition that super fast final laps will not win medals in the near future.

Slow - or tactical races as some call them, won't be happening outside of national champs for a good few years.

Well, Eamon was the best when he won the World Championship. If only for that day!

I will enjoy watching him come up short.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Way! Winning medals has to do with the competition. Are all Olympic Gold medal winners better than Paul Tergat? Um...nope!

I agree with Flagpole. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Centro’s best days are behind him, and that Hocker winds up running 1:44/3:28/3:46/7:27/12:50, winning 3 world championship medals including one gold, winning multiple Diamond League races, winning numerous U.S. titles over the next twelve years, winning the 3k at World Indoors in 2029, etc., but never places higher than 4th in his four Olympic appearances—you don’t think he could be regarded as better overall than Centro? I do.

He won't. Just to be clear. But I aagree that you can be better even if you lack an olympic medal.