Official 2021 Nuttycombe Invite Discussion Thread: BYU vs NC State (W), Iowa State vs Oregon vs Stanford (M)

astro wrote:

Sounds like a wily veteran move befitting their decades of experience. Don't show your hand to the competition. :)

What is to gain by keeping Orton out? Everyone knows she is good. She won in Florida. Camp, on the other hand, is the unknown factor right now after finishing way back a month ago. So if we are going for some crafty move, that would be the one I would make. But in any case, this race is only the current status, the real race is a month away.

Humor.

Iowa State barely lost to BYU and they held out 2 of their top 5. Don't count them out.

Can't really blame BYU for focusing on Cross Country, they won by 70 points. Unless b y U has some injuries or big change from last year I can't see how they wouldn't be the favorites. N c State bright spot this year is LaTour, but so far the other five six and seven Runners haven't looked any better than last year... also I'm counting out Iowa State.

Men

Come on man!!!! Really?!?! First, I’m not blaming BYU for focusing on CC. I’m just saying they trained for 6 months for Nationals, NC State did not. They were training for Indoor and CC. Different story this season for the Pack because CC is in November as it usually is.

Second, what an uninformed statement that they are not better, especially there top runners. Everyone is better! Steelman was 5th at Nationals, and she ran faster at there home opener then last year. So, Steelman ran faster and Chmiel and Tuohy beat her. Chmiel beat her at ND as well and she’s better than last season. Tuohy is healthy and has beaten Steelman and Chmiel this season and they were 5 th and 9 th last year at NCAA?!?! Their not better up front? Their last race LaTour was 3 seconds behind Tuohy? And Ally Hays a transfer from Colombia was 5 th not far back from the other four.

And here is the only factor that matters…. At ND there was only a 18 second gap between the Wolfpack’s 1 and 5. Tuohy, Steelman, and Chmiel could all be in the top 10 at NCAA. And imagine if the gap between their 1 and 5 is 18 seconds?!?! BYU will lose by the margin they won by last season. And none of this factors in Dominique who had a hard fall at ND.

I don’t know how you can say that NC State is not way better than last season. And this could change Friday, but BYU does not look like they have improved at all.

Ezrun wrote:

Can't really blame BYU for focusing on Cross Country, they won by 70 points. Unless b y U has some injuries or big change from last year I can't see how they wouldn't be the favorites. N c State bright spot this year is LaTour, but so far the other five six and seven Runners haven't looked any better than last year... also I'm counting out Iowa State.

NC States 3-7 runners are clearly much faster now than they were in March due to health, additions, and improvement.

I don't see Steelman or chmiel doing better than last year... I mean don't get me wrong they're really good Runners and I think they'll do well but I'm just saying there's a good chance they'll be a few spots down from where they were last year

All so you keep saying somehow it's an amazing thing that Steelman ran faster than last year on a tune-up race. But last year was a crazy year and when was that race in comparison to when Nationals took place? She was running really well for Nationals but that was in the spring

Also it doesn't matter that they ran indoors it's really meaningless because these are Runners and they were training to run so it doesn't matter whether they did a indoor meet a few days before because they're going to be training to run anyway

Bottom line is BYU beat them by 70 points both teams had some injuries they were dealing with last year so both teams should be a little better this year, IF HEALTHY

Touhy will probably be a little stronger but like I said I don't think they're 1 through 3 Runners will score that much better than they did last year... la tour might be a big boost but she faded a lot running the Steeplechase last year so I think there's a good chance she'll fade at Nationals

Shaw And Clermont so far have been disappointment this year and I don't think that transfer will crack top 70 at Nationals

Anyway I still think BYU is the favorite they won by 70 points last year and Orton and a couple of other Runners should only be better... I think byu will have every runner in the top 45 and will win by at least 20 points, maybe more, I think n c will fade after a strong start. I think their top three will all finish outside the top 10 and maybe one of them outside top 20

Also tuohy has a bad habit of not drafting off other Runners and running way out wide in her own path so to speak, she got passed by two byu Runners down the homestretch last year

Chmiel 10, Steelman 15, tuohy 20, la tour 35, bush 55, transfer 70, Shaw and Clairmont big???

Byu... Orton 3, 3 others around 15 to 25 , 5th runner 40 byu will win by 40.... assuming healthy

nc state xc 2021 season sweep .. bet

not super impressed with NC State's performance at Great America. Touhy ran faster her senior year of high school, and that was her worst cross-country season. Yeah it was just a tune-up but still it was just a tune-up for her senior year. And then when they ran against the elites last week, chelengat and roe sp??,,, both Steelman and touhy looked like they couldn't hang, chmiel did well though. a healthy byu should win. Especially if Orton is a title contender.

Was expecting nc state to have 2 or 3 other Runners doing what Steelman did in the first 2 races besides chmiel and tuohy... was really expecting Shaw and Clairmont to be right there.... maybe starliper too... so far haven't seen a #5 who looks like a top 50 runner which is what they need...maybe they're building for a strong finish to the season... still early but not sure why some r Goin gaga

I'm most interested to see how Stanford runs. Just how good can Heymach and Dudek be, Heymach is my favorite to win NCAA. Can they find 3-5 to at least have a chance for the team at pacs, ncaa.?

Byu- as good or better than last year.

Nc state-much better than 2020. State actually executed their perfect race to get 2nd last year. Healthy front 2 exceeded expectations (Steelman, Chmiel), questionable recovering injured came through (Clairmonte, Tuohy) and somebody, anybody had to step up at 5, which turned out to be Shaw.

For 2021 there is now a solid front 3 plus Clairmonte, and then a tight group fighting for spots 5-7. That group is now so much improved that they are right on the heels of the front 3. Even without Starliper and giving a redshirt to Rauber the 5-7 spots will now be a strength for State.

Lastly, we finally get to see 1a vs 1b when both are reasonably healthy. Get the popcorn ready.

semihaze wrote:

nc state xc 2021 season sweep .. bet

Yep! I will take that bet as well. I think NC State will dominate starting this Friday! Any takers?????

MidFootStriker wrote:

Was expecting nc state to have 2 or 3 other Runners doing what Steelman did in the first 2 races besides chmiel and tuohy... was really expecting Shaw and Clairmont to be right there.... maybe starliper too... so far haven't seen a #5 who looks like a top 50 runner which is what they need...maybe they're building for a strong finish to the season... still early but not sure why some r Goin gaga

Interesting....5 within 23 seconds of Chelengat or within 32 seconds of what Kelati ran there in 2019, the aforementioned 1-5 spread of 18 seconds....Clairemonte got knocked down in that race so she is better than what was shown...that doesn't seem like such a bad team to me...I don't think NC State history says they peak too early either

FastTuohy wrote:

Ezrun wrote:

Dudek was only a few seconds ahead of her teammates so if she is that high on the list I would expect a couple of her teammates to be right there with her and for Stanford to really be having a good showing. Chmiel looked pretty good two weeks ago so she could definitely be right with the leaders....

You are right, but my take from that race was it was probably a very easy course, so a time of 20:50 ish was nothing to write home about.

Dudek has also ran low 19s. So not exactly a slouch compared these other gals. She was the real freshman phenom last year until injury. I cant believe she is 100% yet, very serious injury. So top 10 may be real expectation. No way Stanford finishes 8th though. And yes this does feel the game of the year (for us Ncaa XC nerds). Now lets get the rest of the country to appreciate!

Is this streaming does anyone know? Seems perfect for Olympic channel or NBC sports, or how about PAC12 channel at least?

bigmig19 wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

You are right, but my take from that race was it was probably a very easy course, so a time of 20:50 ish was nothing to write home about.

Dudek has also ran low 19s. So not exactly a slouch compared these other gals. She was the real freshman phenom last year until injury. I cant believe she is 100% yet, very serious injury. So top 10 may be real expectation. No way Stanford finishes 8th though. And yes this does feel the game of the year (for us Ncaa XC nerds). Now lets get the rest of the country to appreciate!

It is being streamed on Runnerspace ($). Once again, that time (low 19s for her and several others) effort at the Pac 12 championship does not seem to be representative of what she, or anyone else who ran that course that day can do on a real 6K course. But I guess we shall see on Friday.