Official 2021 London Marathon discussion thread

Just interesting Trivia

British Marathoners are represented among The All Time List top 1000 which ends at 2:09.43 by MEN Born in 7 different Decades.

1 in the 1930's

1 in 1940's

6 in 1950's

2 in 1960's

2 in 1970's

1 in 1980's

1 in 1990's

Who will be the first Brit born AFTER Januarys 1st 2000 to get in the All Time List? 1950's looks like their best Decade so far more likely coming from the 1990's and 1980's, 1970's is unlikely to get more but possible, they would have to be 42 or older. I go by the top 1000 rather than a set number like 2:10:00 because the set number will always increase or stay the same, with the Top 1000 you can see which countries are improving or regressing, Right now they have 15 in the Top 1000 so if inin for example 5 years they have 16 or more men in the top 1000 on the All Tme list you know they are Improving if they have 14 or less they are getting worse, same with every Country.

Is Chebet back representing Kenya now?

deathinparadise wrote:

According to Stretti the men will go for 61:30 - fast but more reasonable than Berlin last week for sure.

Women's pacing is great: three to go to halfway in 1.08.30 and another [Gemechu] 30 sec behind. Will suit the field and we could see 4 or 5 go sub 2.19?

Aussiestatman wrote:

deathinparadise wrote:

According to Stretti the men will go for 61:30 - fast but more reasonable than Berlin last week for sure.

Women's pacing is great: three to go to halfway in 1.08.30 and another [Gemechu] 30 sec behind. Will suit the field and we could see 4 or 5 go sub 2.19?

At Berlin the Pacers went much faster than they were supposed to.

Im going to bed before 9 pm so I can wake up full alert around halfway. If someone could post the early miles on here, that would be great.

In London 2012 Wilson Kipsang injected a 14:09 into the middle of the race. Is that still the fastest ever mid-race 5k split??

Given the doomsday predictions from earlier in the week, the weather looks like it won't be too bad.

The weather looks like low 50s for temps, we point of 50 with winds out of the SW around 8-12 mph with gusts up 20.

So a little windy and the direction of the wind isn't ideal as the course finishes about 7 miles to the West of where it starts as shown below. That being said it does also finish about 2 miles north of where it starts.

I'm no physicist but does that mean they have to run the equivalent of 5 miles into the wind?

https://mc-04a1be25-8972-4318-8794-517700-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/media/files/london-marathon/2021_vmlm_routemap.pdf?rev=f59842fc903a4a19944a8c713855fb9a

Thinking a little bit about the wind. The biggest 'tail wind' would be at the start - the first 3 miles. Not really a great time to have it. But the start could be scorching.

The worse part would miles 3 through 8 , 10 through 12 but really 21 through 26. I'm very worried about the end.

Basically, they'll lose the rabbits and then have to run largely into a headwind that isn't also blocked by buildings presumably (I don't know I've never run the course) for the final 5 miles.

Some last minute news.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/10/20351-marthoner-kinde-atanaw-forced-to-withdraw-from-2021-london-marathon-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19/

And I finally did find some betting odds for London. They must have read Jonathan's preview as they have the same top 2 as JG in both races. What's interesting to me is they reall show how stacked the men's race. The biggest favorite - Tituse Ekiru - has an implied win rate of just 28.6%.

Men

3.5 Titus Ekiru

4.0 Birhanu Legese

6.0 Vincent Kipchumba

7.5 Mosinet Geremew

7.5 Evans Chebet

11.0 Shura Kitata

13.0 Sisay Lemma

15.0 Kinde Atanaw

71.0 Jonathan Mellor

71.0 Tristan Woodfine

176.0 Mohamud Aadan

226.0 Joshua Griffiths

226.0 Charlie Hulson

226.0 Andrew Davies

276.0 Eoghan Totten

276.0 Nicholas Torry

Women

1.91 Brigid Kosgei

6.0 Joyciline Jepkosgei

7.0 Roza Dereje

8.0 Lonah Chemtai Salpeter

13.0 Birhane Dibaba

15.0 Degitu Azimeraw

17.0 Tigist Girma

17.0 Zeineba Yimer

26.0 Ashete Bekere

26.0 Valary Jemeli

31.0 Alemu Megertu

51.0 Charlotte Purdue

51.0 Sinead Diver

126.0 Rose Harvey

126.0 Eloise Wellings

126.0 Natasha Cockram

226.0 Naomi Mitchell

226.0 Dylan Hassett

276.0 Becky Briggs

For the women, I think the bet to take is Joyciline (implied when rate at 16.7%)

Forgot to post the list.

douglas burke wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Women's pacing is great: three to go to halfway in 1.08.30 and another [Gemechu] 30 sec behind. Will suit the field and we could see 4 or 5 go sub 2.19?

At Berlin the Pacers went much faster than they were supposed to.

Forgot to post this

I did not mean to post the video, I thought I copied the British Marathons Stats without checking.

Details :- https://www.mktvnews.com/london-marathon-2021-live-stream-tv-channel-news-preview/

I saw a video on youtube that said Berlin flew Kipchoge into Berlin, but don't know what he did there. Didn't see him congratulate the winner, congratulate the Kenyans, do some pacing, start the race, etc.... Did London also flew Kipchoge into London?

Sorry, but no. JG chose Joyciline. Evans Chebet will win. Ekiru in his first major, and its the major major. Won’t podium

Who's there?

"The big events, the Olympics, the World Championships, Boston, New York, London, etc we’re there and we cover them like no one else."

douglas burke wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Women's pacing is great: three to go to halfway in 1.08.30 and another [Gemechu] 30 sec behind. Will suit the field and we could see 4 or 5 go sub 2.19?

At Berlin the Pacers went much faster than they were supposed to.

…by 12 seconds. 61’00 was scheduled halfway.

My stab in the dark predictions:

Men - Legese breaks the race open at ~16 miles, by 21 only Ekiru has maintained contact, but eventually, with just 5–10 minutes left to run and both fatiguing from the wind and aggressive splits, Legese forges a winning gap. 1. Birhanu Legese 2:03:25 2. Titus Ekiru 2:03:45 3. Mosinet Geremew 2:04:25

Rooting for Ekiru, don’t know why.

Women - Tigist Girma forces the issue in the second half, and by 20 miles it’s down to she, Jepkosgei and Kosgei in the lead group. Kosgei fades at 35k and is later overtaken for 3rd by Ashete Bekere. Jepkosgei kicks with ~400 to go and gains a small advantage, but Girma fights back in the final 100 for a thrilling breakthrough victory. 1. Tigist Girma 2:18:00 2. Joyciline Jepkosgei 2:18:02 3. Ashete Bekere 2:19:20 4. Brigid Kosgei 2:19:50

Rooting for Kosgei, don’t know why.

The Kenyan NTV feed is listed as an official broadcaster and is free to view online (no VPN needed) here:

https://ntv.nation.co.ke/ke/live

They've been doing a pre-race show for the last few minutes