What do you think is Kipchoge 5k fitness when he's in peak Marathon form ?

The guy runs mile repeats at 4:13. I think 13:00 is totally within reason.

Ho Hum wrote:

They call him the Marathon GOAT for a reason wrote:

He just ran 2.08 in extreme conditions. Can you comprehend the fitness level that requires?

If he ran a 5000 against the top guys, the only thing he would lack would be his old finishing kick.

Doesn't require great speed to do that, though. Look at the Japanese guys -- Osako has been running 13:30s or slower as a 2:05 guy. Maybe Kipchoge would be faster as a guy with good speed in his youth, but I think there comes a point where being too fit at the 5k makes you a worse marathoner.

Sure, but he obviously has retained a very large proportion of his abilities from his youth, Bekele also. They no longer need 51 second 400 speed and I'm sure they don't train for that, but their oxygen uptake will still be close to what it was many years ago.

Skirocer wrote:

The guy runs mile repeats at 4:13. I think 13:00 is totally within reason.

To run a WR marathon a gap of about 25 seconds per mile is needed between marathon pace and 10k capability. I believe he could be as fast as 12:50. It's a myth that specializing in the marathon kills track speed.

Remember when all those jabronis were arguing before the Olympics that Cole Hocker wasn’t in 3:33 (or faster shape) because he ran 3:35 at the trials?

If you use that same logic, Kipchoge is easily in 12:52 shape because he ran that at the 2003 World Championships to outkick El G and Bekele. He clearly has more strength than he did in 2003 too!

In all seriousness it’s tough to say and there have been some solid predictions here. I wouldn’t be shocked if he could pull out something like 13:10-13:15, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he no longer has that sort of speed. The vO2max equivalent of a 2:04 marathon is right around 13:00, and his 2:08 in terrible conditions is indicative of fitness around that level.

13:05

He’s not going to be worrying Barega or Cheptegei at these distances, but you all seriously don’t think Kipchoge can’t still beat Fisher or Woody. With focused training and an evenly paced TT type race I think he’s back under 13 and 27 minutes. He still looks so fluid and fast and like there’s still some hop in his legs.

On the flip side, what could Barega manage in a fast marathon with the proper build up?

I think 13:00-13:10 on the track is fair. When Geoffrey Mutai was marathon king in the early 2010s, he was running 27-low on the roads for 10k without a carbon plated shoe. For sure Kipchoge could match that. Maybe 13:20ish on the roads, 27-flat for 10k. I doubt he has the gears to go with a 12:40-50 type track race. It is interesting that we haven't seen him in a fast road 10k or half in recent years.