Centro's chances in Tokyo = super bleak

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Star wrote:

As far as Centro’s chances in Tokyo, he will execute a good race.

Some of the others will choke under the pressure.

While statistically you are absolutely correct, it also could be Centro who will choke.

I will remind you that in hist last major competition (WC Doha 2019) Centro placed 8th in a time of 3:32.

His 800m SB back then was 1:46, the same as this year. Also his mile TT converts to 3:32. So there is a good indication, that it could be a repeat of Doha for Centro.

I agree with you but I'd like to point something out that bothers me about these LRC fanboys. (not saying you)

Centro ran 3:32.81 in Doha but people will call it 3:32. They ALWAYS round down.

You either call it with the fractions or round up to 3:33. Does .81 make a difference? Hell yes, it's about 6 meters and if you've ever seen a 1500 finish 6 meters is a significant difference. At the speed these guys are running it can be the difference between a medal and an 8th place finish or qualifying or not qualifying.

This is recency bias. Look at 1500 fields during the years Centro has medaled, they have always been as good if not better.

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

This is recency bias. Look at 1500 fields during the years Centro has medaled, they have always been as good if not better.

Well I also look at 1500m field of the most recent major championship (Doha 2019) where Centro placed 8th in 3:32 and can see nothing but a repeat of that race for him.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

This is recency bias. Look at 1500 fields during the years Centro has medaled, they have always been as good if not better.

Well I also look at 1500m field of the most recent major championship (Doha 2019) where Centro placed 8th in 3:32 and can see nothing but a repeat of that race for him.

I've never seen so many people use results from 5 years ago as definitive proof over current results. The Cubs won the World Series in 2016, look at them now.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

This is recency bias. Look at 1500 fields during the years Centro has medaled, they have always been as good if not better.

Well I also look at 1500m field of the most recent major championship (Doha 2019) where Centro placed 8th in 3:32 and can see nothing but a repeat of that race for him.

The year before he won gold he also finished 8th. I'm not saying that means he's going to win this year but anything could happen.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

While statistically you are absolutely correct, it also could be Centro who will choke.

I will remind you that in hist last major competition (WC Doha 2019) Centro placed 8th in a time of 3:32.

So your example of Centro choking in a championship final is the one where he ran 3:32 for a season best.

That’s more of example of everyone else performing well.

World Championship 1500s have a history of the favorite winning.

Cram won. Bile won. Morceli won 3 times. El G won 4 times. Kiprop won 3 times.

All of them had at least one disappointing Olympics.

There is something about the Olympic 1500 that throws people off their game.

highhoppingworm wrote:

Only on letsrun does the reigning gold medalist PRing a week before the olympics running her last the last 600 completely alone indicate super bleak things to come. Not saying he is the favorite or even > 50% to medal but don’t you think you are being a bit hyperbolic? Remind me, what did the rest of your list run in a full mile with competition this year?

He PRd at a distance no one else in the world cares about. Might as well have been a 2000m race.

Converts to 3:32. There will be half a dozen runners in front of him who would run 3:32 off a slow pace and blast past him in the last 200m.

Alan

By the way, I’ll pick Centro to get 5th.

That would mean in major championships he would have placed 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.

5 top 5 finishes would be a nice career.

a dude with tiny calves wrote:

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

Well I also look at 1500m field of the most recent major championship (Doha 2019) where Centro placed 8th in 3:32 and can see nothing but a repeat of that race for him.

The year before he won gold he also finished 8th. I'm not saying that means he's going to win this year but anything could happen.

Well yeah. Anything except Centro winning gold again. 2016 has happened already and everyone has learned from it. Moreover, many got inspired - there are 5-6 runners now that are capable of finishing in 50-51s.

I don't understand the fascination with Burrito Track Club Centro nowadays. Got beat by Hocker at the trials. Then runs 3:49 TT when Hocker ran 3:50 indoors last winter. Hocker should be everyone American is rooting for.

Star wrote:

As far as Centro’s chances in Tokyo, he will execute a good race.

Some of the others will choke under the pressure.

Kiprop was dominant champion in 2011 and 2015 but bombed in 2012 and 2016.

Cheruiyot crushed the 2019 championship but was just recently 4th at the Kenyan trials.

I know he bounced back in Monaco but can we guarantee he will be mentally right for Tokyo?

Jim Ryun was upset in 1968. He fell in 1972.

Steve Ovett was upset in 1980.

Steve Scott and Steve Cram underperformed in 1984.

Everyone crapped out in 1988. (Bile, Aouita and Cram)

Morceli bombed in 1992.

El G fell in 1996 and was upset in 2000.

Lagat was actually ranked #1 in 2004 and lost.

Ramzi got busted in 2008.

Is it good to be favored in the Olympic 1500m?

Ryun losing to Keino at 7000' was not an upset and neither was being tripped from behind at Munich. Coe and Ovett were a coin flip in 1980. Steve Scott had been struggling throughout 1984 and Cram was hindered by injuries. El Guerrouj never won a race in his career that was an upset.

Your "choke" theory is nonsense. You say that some of the others at Tokyo will choke. Tom and Jakob will not.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

My current estimation:

1) Tim

2-6) Jakob

2-6) Kerr

2-6) Lewandowski

2-6) McSweyn

2-6) Lemi

7-12) Simotwo

7-12) Tefera

7-12) Edwards

7-12) Hocker

7-12) Centro

7-12) Kipsang

13-14) Hoare

13-14) Nuguse / Fontes

+Jake Wightman, you gotta put him in what’s now the 2-7th tier.

Hoare is the mystery man—could medal, could bomb out in the prelims if he’s not in top shape.

McSweyn could do well in a fast final but risks being run out of it in slower rounds.

This is what I predicted in another thread:

1. Timothy Cheruiyot 3:29.80

2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:30.19

3. Josh Kerr 3:30.42

4. Stewart McSweyn 3:30.49

5. Jake Wightman 3:30.81

6. Charles Simotwo 3:30.99

7. Matt Centrowitz 3:31.14

8. Marcin Lewandowski 3:31.35

9. Teddese Lemi 3:32.25

10. Cole Hocker 3:32.48

11. Abel Kipsang 3:33.23

12. Samuel Tefera 3:33.52

400 - Cheruiyot - 54.97

800 - Cheruiyot - 1:52.78 (57.81)

1200 - Cheruiyot - 2:50.19 (57.41)

1500 - Cheruiyot - 3:29.80 (39.61)

...Swap Centro and Lemi in the prediction and it looks like you’d be happy enough, Sopa.

Centro may not be able to hang with a fast pace but Tim and Jakob won’t be thinking about Centro, they will be thinking about each other.

Leading the whole way may have worked for Tim in 2019 but Jakob was only 18 then.

He is more of a concern now.

Does Tim want to be Jakob’s rabbit or will they both be more cautious over the first 800?

These things will be in their heads as they try to sleep the night before the final.

This is the most reasonable list I have seen on these boards for Tokyo 1500m. The problem with putting Wightman in the mix is his crappy mile race (4th in 3:55) two weeks ago. Also we both didn't add Makhloufi, who is most likely to make the final.

Therefore I suppose this is what's most reallistic at the moment:

1) Tim

2-7) Jakob

2-7) Kerr

2-7) Lewandowski

2-7) McSweyn

2-7) Lemi

2-7) Makhloufi

8-13) Simotwo

8-13) Tefera

8-13) Edwards

8-13) Hocker

8-13) Centro

8-13) Kipsang

14) Hoare / Nuguse / Fontes

Assuming just 12 make the final, that means Hocker and Centro are on the bubble.

Kerr is looking great. 1:46 and change with a massive negative split 50.something final 400m. Centrowitz will get dusted. Maybe he should have went for the 5000 where a sit and kick is more likely to be the tactic used.

I agree with this. Kerr is looking like Rocky.

Our local news in Albuquerque just showed him doing a treadmill workout in 90+ degrees with 90+ humidity. He's a beast right now.

Eating thunder and crapping lightning .

Go Josh!

Yes, it will be tough for him to medal. But he is in the conversation. It is not super bleak or even bleak.

I'm stumped wrote:

Assuming just 12 make the final, that means Hocker and Centro are on the bubble.

I don't know how it is gonna be in Tokyo, but they had 14 spots in the final in Rio.

paremata wrote:

Yes, it will be tough for him to medal. But he is in the conversation. It is not super bleak or even bleak.

It is pretty bleak. He is gonna place 8-13th regardless of what the pace is gonna be. The only reason he is in the "conversation" is because his fangirls keep forgetting how insanely strong and deep the field this year is. And also that Centro has been a "has been" for the past 5 years already.

Is Katir not in the 1500 field? Haven’t seen him mentioned much here