I’m reporting this thread AND the initial post as far too mature for letsrun.com.
Great effort. Wanna try sprints, hurdles and field events?
I’m reporting this thread AND the initial post as far too mature for letsrun.com.
Great effort. Wanna try sprints, hurdles and field events?
John Wesley Harding wrote:
1. Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 75% - The only American middle or long distance runner who can be considered the outright favorite. 1:54.x gun to tape would honestly not be shocking.
2. Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 55% - She’ll get a tough race from Chepkoech, Kiyeng, and Yavi, but should be considered among the medal contenders as much as anyone, having won gold in ‘17, silver in ‘19, bronze in ‘16, and having set PBs at 800, 1500, and 5k in the last 2 seasons.
3. Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 50% - Sliding in fairly low-key but I like her medal chances. She was the silver medalist in Doha, and at this year’s trials she lowered her PB to 1:57.66. She ran a 4:29 mile PB a few days ago, indicating great fitness. I wouldn’t be surprised by 1:56.xx for 2nd or 3rd.
4. Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 35% - She’s been on an impressive tear since late-2019, steamrolling her way to American indoor records in the mile and 2-mile before running 3:58 from the front to win the Trials. She may catch some lucky breaks with Hassan and Tsegay not entered (nor Houlihan), and if she can latch on to Muir she’s got a chance at a lesser medal (Kipyegon being the presumptive winner).
5. Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 35% - She was the gold medal favorite heading into Doha 2019, where she placed 3rd, and is still technically ranked #1 in the world by World Athletics. But she had to scramble to qualify for the U.S. team behind two women I predict will continue to beat her, and there’s no shortage of ~1:57 women to contend with for the other medal at the moment.
6. Clayton Murphy - Men’s 800 - 25% - It’s hard to figure what we’ll see from Murphy in Tokyo, given his inconsistent nature (over the past 4-5 years, really), but we know when he’s at his best he can medal, and he was at his best as recently as 4 weeks ago. His European appearances since were rather lackluster, but perhaps it’s all part of his master plan?
7. Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 21% - 4 to 5 months ago I liked predicting Hoppel would upset Brazier for the gold medal. After running 1:43.2 for 2nd in Monaco ‘20 and then 1:44.37/2:16.27 (NR) indoors, he looked like a smart bet to improve on his 4th place from Doha. However, he’s stalled out at 1:44.x this outdoor season, which meant he had to work very hard for 3rd at the Trials, and he was only 11th and 5th in his two recent DL races.
8. Matt Centrowitz - Men’s 1500 - 20% - He looks to be back in 3:30-32 shape, he can kick almost as well as Hocker (wink), and he’s recognized as a master tactician who always gets to the right spot (hence the Olympic gold on his nightstand). Unfortunately for him, it’s strongly suspected that the Olympic final will be a fast race, minimizing the impact of his positioning and closing speed.
9. Galen Rupp - Men’s Marathon - 18% - Is 35 year old Rupp one of the 3 fastest marathoners in the world? Of course not. But fortunately for Rupp, Kenya and Ethiopia can only bring 3 athletes apiece, and the Olympic marathon is typically a war of attrition; despite his critics, Rupp’s proven himself to be one tough MFer, and an excellent performer in the heat. He’s the only athlete on this list who’s won medals at each of the last two Olympics.
10. Cole Hocker - Men’s 1500 - 16% - Without a doubt, Hocker has shown Olympic medal level closing speed in his recent NCAA and USOT wins. I’m giving Centro the nod due to a) international experience, b) expert positioning, and c) the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on peaking at the Olympics, which the NCAA champ did not have. That said, it’s within the realm of possibility that Hocker pulls off a Centro ‘11/Murphy ‘16/Hoppel ‘19, and caps his dream season with a 3rd or 4th place finish and perhaps a 4-5 second PB.
11. Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 15% - Placed 7th in the event in Rio and 8th in Doha and is having a fairly promising season, winning a slow (8:30) DL race in Gateshead and earning his second U.S. steeple title. The steeplechase field seems a bit weak this year (after El Bakkali), but 5th-6th for Bor sounds do-able, a medal feels like a bit of a stretch.
12. Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 10% - She took silver behind Coburn at the 2017 WCs, and was 6th in the event in Doha. She ran well at the Trials, putting at least some pressure on Coburn, but it’s hard to see her having the turn of speed when the real racing starts in Tokyo. 6th place again, I’d wager.
13. Isaiah Jewett - Men’s 800 - 10% - His showing in Tokyo will be one of the most intriguing of the list, in as far as it relates to the future of the event in this country. 2 months ago, the 24 year old college senior was a 1:45 guy—now, he’s a 1:43.85 man who established the entire tone of the U.S. final. Was that a stepping stone to 1:42.xx or the performance of his life? I guess we’ll get some idea in Tokyo.
14. Paul Chelimo - Men’s 5k - 7% - He medaled in this event in Rio (silver) and the London WCs (bronze), and looked strong winning the U.S. title this year. He was 7th in Doha, clocking 13:04 to the winner’s 12:58, and I expect Tokyo will be run in a similar fashion, if not faster. Against a field full of sub-12:50 runners, 6th-10th seems far more probable than a medal.
15. Emily Sisson - Women’s 10k - 5% - I think Sisson is on the level of the best we’ve ever had in the event, alongside Huddle and Flanagan, but her current competition makes medaling a seemingly impossible ask. The two low-29 WR-setters are the obvious favorites, but then you have the great Hellen Obiri, Gezahegne of Bahrain who’s flying under the radar as an awesome drug cheat, four others from Kenya or Ethiopia, not to mention Klosterhalfen and McColgan.
16. Molly Seidel - Women’s Marathon - 5% - I give her the nod as our best (slim) women’s marathon medal hope. After placing 2nd in her debut marathon at the Trials, she lowered her PB to 2:25:13 in placing 6th in London last year. This year she’s won two half marathons in 68-69 minutes and lowered her 10,000 PB to 32:02. Given the nature of the Olympic marathon, I suppose it’s conceivable that enough runners blow up that she winds up in 3rd.
17. Grant Fisher - Men’s 5k - 4% - I respect Fisher’s consistency and steady improvement (vs. the unpredictable and more injury-prone Woody Kincaid). I believe he’s capable of cracking 13:00 this season, and he’s developed a respectable last lap kick. But there are so many guys we know are capable of 12:50 or better, or of closing in 52-53 off a slow pace, that his chances of missing the final are decidedly higher than his medal odds. 7th-10th would be a very nice showing.
18. Yared Nuguse - Men’s 1500 - 3% - I think he has a 40-50% chance of making the final, compared with ~65% for Hocker and ~75% for Centro. He may well possess the tools to win a medal someday, but probably not in the next 3 weeks.
19. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 3% - I’m not convinced she’s a 14:26 runner anymore, and even if she is, that doesn’t count for much in this ridiculously stacked field which includes 3 women who ran 14:15 at the Ethiopian Trials, plus arguably the two favorites in Hassan and Obiri. She should make the final but will be way out of medal contention.
20. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 10k - 3% - She was well-beaten by Sisson at the Trials, and Sisson frankly has no chance of medaling either. The only reason to think Schweizer will turn the tables and beat Sisson in Tokyo is the significance of her 14:26, but since we’re here, it’s possible that Schweizer has felt the need to lay off what got her to 14:26 since approximately last December.
21. Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - Bor seems like our only chance whatsoever for a medal in this event, though I do think we can put 3 in the final. Keter ran an 8:18 PB for 8th in Monaco 2 weeks ago.
22. Mason Ferlic - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - He’s having a fantastic season but probably lacks the talent of an Olympic medalist. The field is fairly shoddy, so he could place 6th-8th if he runs a great race.
23. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 5k - 2% - I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he has at least a 51% chance of making the 15 man final. I’ll be rather surprised should he place top-8.
24. Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 2% - I believe she will make the final. 1. Hassan 2. Tsegay 3. Cranny 4. Obiri? Please.
25. Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 2% - I’m not as down on our men’s 10k team as some posters, and feel we could go 8-11-13 or so on a good day—Fisher is my pick for that #8. 8th isn’t too far from 3rd in some events, but with the teams Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia are sending for the men’s 10k, it could be 200m+ in this one.
26. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 10k - 2% - Yes, he outkicked Fisher in this event at the Trials, but Fisher has better consistency and a marginally better PB (27:11 to 27:12). Who knows, Kincaid’s obviously surprised us before.
27. Sally Kipyego - Women’s Marathon - 2% - She’s won Olympic silver before, nine years ago over 10,000m. However at age 35, and with lackluster results since finishing 3rd at the Trials, I expect simply making the team will prove the last hoorah of her career.
28. Cory McGee - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She ran marvelously at the Trials to earn a clear 2nd place in a 4:00.67 PB, but laid a bit of an egg in Monaco, finishing 11th in 4:04.20, behind Maclean. Making the final would be a good goal/result for her.
29. Heather Maclean - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She barely qualified for the USOT final on a questionable appeal, so an Olympic medal seems highly unlikely. Given her 800m background and upward trajectory, she does have a chance to make the final, but top 6 would be utterly shocking.
30. Rachel Schneider - Women’s 5k - 1% - Schneider, who turned 30 two days ago, has quietly, gradually developed into an Olympian with a great range of PBs (4:02-14:52-31:09). But this event is stacked and Schneider will do well to make the final.
31. Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 1% - “And with less than 100m to go Kiplimo breaks away from his compatriot...watch the clock, the Olympic record is going to be OBLITERATED—26:28, 29, 26:30 for Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda with his countryman Cheptegei just a few strides behind...now look at the battle for third, Kejelcha and Barega stride for stride—BUT WAIT, HERE COMES JOE KLECKER. JOE KLECKER WINS THE BRONZE IN 26:35.” Yeah, probably not.
32. Aliphine Tuliamuk - Women’s Marathon - 1% - She might have gotten the nod among our female marathoners, having won the Trials, had she not gone and gotten pregnant (seriously though, all respect for her life decisions). Giving birth 6.5 months before the Olympic marathon does nothing for your medal chances though.
33. Alicia Monson - Women’s 10k - 1% - She’s sort of the female Joe Klecker (recent college grad who had a strong but not spectacular NCAA career, who’s improving as a pro and just qualified for their first team by finishing a distinct 3rd in the 10k), but Klecker might be capable of running within 60 seconds of the 10k WR, while Monson certainly cannot.
34. Valerie Constien - Women’s Steeplechase - 1% - She was 6th in the steeple at NCAAs as a senior two years ago. She PR’d by 7 seconds to place 3rd at the Trials and make the team. Good for her.
35. Jake Riley - Men’s Marathon - 1% - I suppose if the top half of the field was led badly off course and they decided not to rerun the race or anything, Riley could sneak in for 3rd.
36. Abdi Abdirahman - Men’s Marathon - 1% - The man is literally 61 years old.
Thoughts? Criticism?
JWH you done great. Quibbles:
1. I’d boost Mu and Coburn by 10% each. Coburn because I trust only Kiyeng to beat her. She’s rock solid at getting medals and thus is the weakest field in years. Mu I think has a major ability gap on everyone . She might not win but Goule, Almanza can’t close like her- nobody can. If she loses I bet it’s to Rogers.
2. I’d boost Purrier slightly. I agree Kipyegon is a gold medal lock and Muir looks great. I suppose there’s some worry about the Ethiopian no. 1 but I like Ellys chances and think there’s a gap after the top 4.
3. Too high on Hoppel/Jewett for me. Jewett I don’t trust in the rounds. Hoppel is compromised by injuries I think. Combine 15% of medal for me
4. I’d swap Bor and Frerichs’ odds. It was bad news that the Kenyans looked good last time out on the men’s side lap-counting fiasco aside.
5. Too high on Chelimo. Not happening he will be 6th-9th.
6. Too low on Nuguse. If he makes the finals and it’s a super fast race, he will run really really fast and you never know.
7. Keter/Ferlic slightly higher it’s just wide-open enough who knows.
8. 10k guys no chance combined 0% not happening.
Appreciate the list and thoughtful analysis!
Appreciated your effort in putting together thoughtful analysis (and your humor.) I'll be watching the races with your predictions in mind!
Awesome thread, really enjoyed reading it and find that I mostly agree. Expecting 4-7 US medals.
This thread should be featured on the front page!
Nice work. If give Schweitzer a better chance. Though still unlikely.
My issue would be that Rogers and Wilson are rated too highly based on the fact that Mu is probably going to take one of their medals.
Well done.
The Brojos need to hire you to do all of their previews, not just for the Olympics.
Insightful. Witty. Well thought out and only a few spelling/grammatical errors.
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
Well done.
The Brojos need to hire you to do all of their previews, not just for the Olympics.
Insightful. Witty. Well thought out and only a few spelling/grammatical errors.
Take note BroJos!
Well done. Not much to disagree with, I guess I would have put Schweitzer higher than 3% due to her talent level, but maybe those days really are gone
The USA 1-2-3 is possible though. That being said, I'd agree with you that behind Mu, Rogers and Wilson aren't really separated from a ton of contender who can also run 1:56-7.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
1. Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 75% - The only American middle or long distance runner who can be considered the outright favorite. 1:54.x gun to tape would honestly not be shocking.
2. Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 55% - She’ll get a tough race from Chepkoech, Kiyeng, and Yavi, but should be considered among the medal contenders as much as anyone, having won gold in ‘17, silver in ‘19, bronze in ‘16, and having set PBs at 800, 1500, and 5k in the last 2 seasons.
3. Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 50% - Sliding in fairly low-key but I like her medal chances. She was the silver medalist in Doha, and at this year’s trials she lowered her PB to 1:57.66. She ran a 4:29 mile PB a few days ago, indicating great fitness. I wouldn’t be surprised by 1:56.xx for 2nd or 3rd.
4. Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 35% - She’s been on an impressive tear since late-2019, steamrolling her way to American indoor records in the mile and 2-mile before running 3:58 from the front to win the Trials. She may catch some lucky breaks with Hassan and Tsegay not entered (nor Houlihan), and if she can latch on to Muir she’s got a chance at a lesser medal (Kipyegon being the presumptive winner).
5. Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 35% - She was the gold medal favorite heading into Doha 2019, where she placed 3rd, and is still technically ranked #1 in the world by World Athletics. But she had to scramble to qualify for the U.S. team behind two women I predict will continue to beat her, and there’s no shortage of ~1:57 women to contend with for the other medal at the moment.
6. Clayton Murphy - Men’s 800 - 25% - It’s hard to figure what we’ll see from Murphy in Tokyo, given his inconsistent nature (over the past 4-5 years, really), but we know when he’s at his best he can medal, and he was at his best as recently as 4 weeks ago. His European appearances since were rather lackluster, but perhaps it’s all part of his master plan?
7. Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 21% - 4 to 5 months ago I liked predicting Hoppel would upset Brazier for the gold medal. After running 1:43.2 for 2nd in Monaco ‘20 and then 1:44.37/2:16.27 (NR) indoors, he looked like a smart bet to improve on his 4th place from Doha. However, he’s stalled out at 1:44.x this outdoor season, which meant he had to work very hard for 3rd at the Trials, and he was only 11th and 5th in his two recent DL races.
8. Matt Centrowitz - Men’s 1500 - 20% - He looks to be back in 3:30-32 shape, he can kick almost as well as Hocker (wink), and he’s recognized as a master tactician who always gets to the right spot (hence the Olympic gold on his nightstand). Unfortunately for him, it’s strongly suspected that the Olympic final will be a fast race, minimizing the impact of his positioning and closing speed.
9. Galen Rupp - Men’s Marathon - 18% - Is 35 year old Rupp one of the 3 fastest marathoners in the world? Of course not. But fortunately for Rupp, Kenya and Ethiopia can only bring 3 athletes apiece, and the Olympic marathon is typically a war of attrition; despite his critics, Rupp’s proven himself to be one tough MFer, and an excellent performer in the heat. He’s the only athlete on this list who’s won medals at each of the last two Olympics.
10. Cole Hocker - Men’s 1500 - 16% - Without a doubt, Hocker has shown Olympic medal level closing speed in his recent NCAA and USOT wins. I’m giving Centro the nod due to a) international experience, b) expert positioning, and c) the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on peaking at the Olympics, which the NCAA champ did not have. That said, it’s within the realm of possibility that Hocker pulls off a Centro ‘11/Murphy ‘16/Hoppel ‘19, and caps his dream season with a 3rd or 4th place finish and perhaps a 4-5 second PB.
11. Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 15% - Placed 7th in the event in Rio and 8th in Doha and is having a fairly promising season, winning a slow (8:30) DL race in Gateshead and earning his second U.S. steeple title. The steeplechase field seems a bit weak this year (after El Bakkali), but 5th-6th for Bor sounds do-able, a medal feels like a bit of a stretch.
12. Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 10% - She took silver behind Coburn at the 2017 WCs, and was 6th in the event in Doha. She ran well at the Trials, putting at least some pressure on Coburn, but it’s hard to see her having the turn of speed when the real racing starts in Tokyo. 6th place again, I’d wager.
13. Isaiah Jewett - Men’s 800 - 10% - His showing in Tokyo will be one of the most intriguing of the list, in as far as it relates to the future of the event in this country. 2 months ago, the 24 year old college senior was a 1:45 guy—now, he’s a 1:43.85 man who established the entire tone of the U.S. final. Was that a stepping stone to 1:42.xx or the performance of his life? I guess we’ll get some idea in Tokyo.
14. Paul Chelimo - Men’s 5k - 7% - He medaled in this event in Rio (silver) and the London WCs (bronze), and looked strong winning the U.S. title this year. He was 7th in Doha, clocking 13:04 to the winner’s 12:58, and I expect Tokyo will be run in a similar fashion, if not faster. Against a field full of sub-12:50 runners, 6th-10th seems far more probable than a medal.
15. Emily Sisson - Women’s 10k - 5% - I think Sisson is on the level of the best we’ve ever had in the event, alongside Huddle and Flanagan, but her current competition makes medaling a seemingly impossible ask. The two low-29 WR-setters are the obvious favorites, but then you have the great Hellen Obiri, Gezahegne of Bahrain who’s flying under the radar as an awesome drug cheat, four others from Kenya or Ethiopia, not to mention Klosterhalfen and McColgan.
16. Molly Seidel - Women’s Marathon - 5% - I give her the nod as our best (slim) women’s marathon medal hope. After placing 2nd in her debut marathon at the Trials, she lowered her PB to 2:25:13 in placing 6th in London last year. This year she’s won two half marathons in 68-69 minutes and lowered her 10,000 PB to 32:02. Given the nature of the Olympic marathon, I suppose it’s conceivable that enough runners blow up that she winds up in 3rd.
17. Grant Fisher - Men’s 5k - 4% - I respect Fisher’s consistency and steady improvement (vs. the unpredictable and more injury-prone Woody Kincaid). I believe he’s capable of cracking 13:00 this season, and he’s developed a respectable last lap kick. But there are so many guys we know are capable of 12:50 or better, or of closing in 52-53 off a slow pace, that his chances of missing the final are decidedly higher than his medal odds. 7th-10th would be a very nice showing.
18. Yared Nuguse - Men’s 1500 - 3% - I think he has a 40-50% chance of making the final, compared with ~65% for Hocker and ~75% for Centro. He may well possess the tools to win a medal someday, but probably not in the next 3 weeks.
19. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 3% - I’m not convinced she’s a 14:26 runner anymore, and even if she is, that doesn’t count for much in this ridiculously stacked field which includes 3 women who ran 14:15 at the Ethiopian Trials, plus arguably the two favorites in Hassan and Obiri. She should make the final but will be way out of medal contention.
20. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 10k - 3% - She was well-beaten by Sisson at the Trials, and Sisson frankly has no chance of medaling either. The only reason to think Schweizer will turn the tables and beat Sisson in Tokyo is the significance of her 14:26, but since we’re here, it’s possible that Schweizer has felt the need to lay off what got her to 14:26 since approximately last December.
21. Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - Bor seems like our only chance whatsoever for a medal in this event, though I do think we can put 3 in the final. Keter ran an 8:18 PB for 8th in Monaco 2 weeks ago.
22. Mason Ferlic - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - He’s having a fantastic season but probably lacks the talent of an Olympic medalist. The field is fairly shoddy, so he could place 6th-8th if he runs a great race.
23. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 5k - 2% - I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he has at least a 51% chance of making the 15 man final. I’ll be rather surprised should he place top-8.
24. Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 2% - I believe she will make the final. 1. Hassan 2. Tsegay 3. Cranny 4. Obiri? Please.
25. Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 2% - I’m not as down on our men’s 10k team as some posters, and feel we could go 8-11-13 or so on a good day—Fisher is my pick for that #8. 8th isn’t too far from 3rd in some events, but with the teams Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia are sending for the men’s 10k, it could be 200m+ in this one.
26. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 10k - 2% - Yes, he outkicked Fisher in this event at the Trials, but Fisher has better consistency and a marginally better PB (27:11 to 27:12). Who knows, Kincaid’s obviously surprised us before.
27. Sally Kipyego - Women’s Marathon - 2% - She’s won Olympic silver before, nine years ago over 10,000m. However at age 35, and with lackluster results since finishing 3rd at the Trials, I expect simply making the team will prove the last hoorah of her career.
28. Cory McGee - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She ran marvelously at the Trials to earn a clear 2nd place in a 4:00.67 PB, but laid a bit of an egg in Monaco, finishing 11th in 4:04.20, behind Maclean. Making the final would be a good goal/result for her.
29. Heather Maclean - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She barely qualified for the USOT final on a questionable appeal, so an Olympic medal seems highly unlikely. Given her 800m background and upward trajectory, she does have a chance to make the final, but top 6 would be utterly shocking.
30. Rachel Schneider - Women’s 5k - 1% - Schneider, who turned 30 two days ago, has quietly, gradually developed into an Olympian with a great range of PBs (4:02-14:52-31:09). But this event is stacked and Schneider will do well to make the final.
31. Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 1% - “And with less than 100m to go Kiplimo breaks away from his compatriot...watch the clock, the Olympic record is going to be OBLITERATED—26:28, 29, 26:30 for Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda with his countryman Cheptegei just a few strides behind...now look at the battle for third, Kejelcha and Barega stride for stride—BUT WAIT, HERE COMES JOE KLECKER. JOE KLECKER WINS THE BRONZE IN 26:35.” Yeah, probably not.
32. Aliphine Tuliamuk - Women’s Marathon - 1% - She might have gotten the nod among our female marathoners, having won the Trials, had she not gone and gotten pregnant (seriously though, all respect for her life decisions). Giving birth 6.5 months before the Olympic marathon does nothing for your medal chances though.
33. Alicia Monson - Women’s 10k - 1% - She’s sort of the female Joe Klecker (recent college grad who had a strong but not spectacular NCAA career, who’s improving as a pro and just qualified for their first team by finishing a distinct 3rd in the 10k), but Klecker might be capable of running within 60 seconds of the 10k WR, while Monson certainly cannot.
34. Valerie Constien - Women’s Steeplechase - 1% - She was 6th in the steeple at NCAAs as a senior two years ago. She PR’d by 7 seconds to place 3rd at the Trials and make the team. Good for her.
35. Jake Riley - Men’s Marathon - 1% - I suppose if the top half of the field was led badly off course and they decided not to rerun the race or anything, Riley could sneak in for 3rd.
36. Abdi Abdirahman - Men’s Marathon - 1% - The man is literally 61 years old.
Thoughts? Criticism?
First off I would like to say this was probably the best post I've ever read on here. Well Done! Very good well reasoned analysis with a bit of sas to top it off.
My List:
1. Athing Mu 90%
2. Emma Coburn 60%
3. Clayton Murphy 55%
4. Raevyn Rodgers 50% -
5. Elle Purrier St. Pierre 40%
6. Cole Hocker 35%
7. Mathew Centrowitz 34%
8. Ajee Wilson 25%
9. Paul Chelimo 20%
10. Bryce Hopple 19%
11. Galen Rupp 15%
12. Isaiah Jewett 14%
13. Courntey Frerich 12%
14. Hillary Bor 10%
15. Karissa Schweizer 5k 9%
16. Emily Sission 8%
17. Grant Fisher 7%
18. Woody Kinkade 6%
19. Yared Nuguse 5%
20. Molly Seidel 4%
21. Bernard Keter 3%
After this I think their medal chances are basicly 0 so im gonna stop.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
1. Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 80% AGREED BUT UPPED FROM 75% TO 80%
2. Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 66% - UPPED FROM 55% TO 66%, I THINK SHE IS A CLEAR FAVORITE FOR A MEDAL
3. Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - MOVED HER UP FROM 5 TO 3 -- I THINK SHE IS ROUNDING INTO FORM, AND IF SHE GETS THERE SHE IS BASICALLY A CO-FAVORITE WITH MU
4. Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 30% LOWERED FROM 50% TO 30% (AND AJEE BUMPS HER DOWN)
5. Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 25% LOWERED FROM 35% TO 25% -- SHE IS GOOD BUT NOT GONNA MEDAL WITHOUT A LOT OF LUCK (AJEE BUMPED HER DOWN)
6a. Galen Rupp - Men's Marathon - 20% - BUMPED HIM FROM 9 TO 6 -- HE WILL BE READY TO GO AND IS ONE OF OUR ALL TIME GREATEST WORLD STAGE PERFORMERS -- YOU'RE SLEEPING ON HIM
6b. Courtney Frerichs - 20% - SLEEPING ON HER AS WELL, BUMPED HER FROM 12 TO 6, NONE OF THE PEOPLE AHEAD OF HER ASIDE FROM MURPHY AND CENTRO HAVE SHOWN ANY ABILITY TO MEDAL THUS FAR
8a. Matt Centrowitz - Men’s 1500 - 15% HE GENERALLY DOES WELL IN FINALS BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF HE HAS THE STRENGTH FOR A TIM C-STYLE FINAL. HIS CHANCES DEFINITEY GO UP IF HE PROVES HE IS IN 3:29/30 SHAPE SATURDAY
8b. Clayton Murphy - Men’s 800 - 15% SOMEWHAT EASIER YEAR AND HE'S A SMART RUNNER, SO I WON'T PUT IT PAST HIM IF HE IS ABLE TO GET BACK TO TRIALS SHARPNESS BUT I HAVE NO IDEA IF HE WILL AND HE LOOKS LIKE BALLS RIGHT NOW
10. Paul Chelimo - Men's 5000 - 10% HE LOOKS IN AS GOOD OF SHAPE AS EVER, BUT THE FIELD IS JUST TOO STRONG THIS YEAR
11. Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 9% NO GREAT TIMES, BUT HE'S BEEN GOOD IN DOMESTIC COMP AND THE EVENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK THIS YEAR
12. Molly Seidel - Women's Marathon -8% NOT AS GOOD IN HER EVENT AS SISSON, HOCKER, ETC. BUT WEIRD STUFF ALWAYS HAPPENS IN THE OLYMPIC MARATHON (THINK 2004)
13. Cole Hocker - Men's 1500 - 7% MAYBE IF IT'S UNGODLY SLOW? I REALLY DON'T THINK HE HAS A SHOT AS THAT WOULD BE A MONSTROUSLY LONG PEAK AND HE HASN'T SHOWN 3:30-32 FITNESS OUTDOORS YET, BUT WHO KNOWS
14. Emily Sisson - Women's 10,000 - 6% OBJECTIVELY PROBABLY OUR BEST DISTANCE RUNNER ABOVE 800 METERS, BUT SHE JUST HAS A WILDLY TOUGH DRAW THIS YEAR
15. Isaiah Jewett - Men's 800 - 5% WOULDN'T BET ON HIM TO MAKE THE FINAL, BUT THE 800 IS BIZARRE AND I WAS IMPRESSED HOW HE CAME BACK FROM ALMOST MISSING THE TRIALS FINAL TO NEARLY WINNING THE WHOLE THING
16. Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 4% HE'S BEEN ABSOLUTE BUTT THIS YEAR BUT IF HE GETS BACK TO FORM HE IS PROBABLY A MEDAL FAVORITE, SO THIS IS TO CAPTURE THAT UNLIKELY SCENARIO
Thoughts? Criticism?
I deleted the explanations and then rearranged. I didn't include anyone after 16 because I consider their medal chances to be closer to 0% than 1%
birdbeard2 wrote:
6b. Courtney Frerichs - 20% - SLEEPING ON HER AS WELL, BUMPED HER FROM 12 TO 6, NONE OF THE PEOPLE AHEAD OF HER ASIDE FROM MURPHY AND CENTRO HAVE SHOWN ANY ABILITY TO MEDAL THUS FAR
Bogus - Murphy and Centro are the ones who have medaled, sure, but how do Hoppel’s run in Monaco last year (or his 4th at World’s for that matter) or Hocker’s historically fast closing splits not show “any ability to medal”?
John Wesley Harding wrote:
birdbeard2 wrote:
6b. Courtney Frerichs - 20% - SLEEPING ON HER AS WELL, BUMPED HER FROM 12 TO 6, NONE OF THE PEOPLE AHEAD OF HER ASIDE FROM MURPHY AND CENTRO HAVE SHOWN ANY ABILITY TO MEDAL THUS FAR
Bogus - Murphy and Centro are the ones who have medaled, sure, but how do Hoppel’s run in Monaco last year (or his 4th at World’s for that matter) or Hocker’s historically fast closing splits not show “any ability to medal”?
I guess semantics, mainly. They have medaled. He has shown potential to get to that level but hasn't reached it and has looked like absolute butt this entire year. Him medalling after his results this season would be an enormous shock. He ran 1:47 a couple weeks ago, mang.
Perhaps he's playing 5D chess and peaking at the right time, but if so, he sure got close to not even qualifying.
Great post. Agree with many of these, here are a few opinion differences:
-I'd put Ajee Wilson over Rogers
-Hoppel at 3%. He's looked terrible all year, including at the trials and clearly isn't his peak self like 2019 or 2020. The difference between him and Murphy is that Murphy had one great race which showed he has gold medal potential.
-Paul Chelimo at maybe 20-25%, I'd pick him for top 3. Silver medalist in Rio when he was relatively unknown and barely made the team, so he's looking even better now that he's in good form. Obviously a more stacked field, but Chelimo gets it done at the biggest stages consistently.
-Jewett at 2%. Long season and his strategy just won't work at that level of competition. Probably won't make the final.
-Aside from Galen and Molly, the remaining U.S. marathons have a 0% chance of medaling. All four have run consistently terrible since the trials and probably aren't among the actual top 3 Americans. Would be surprising to see any of those four in the top 20 honestly.
-I'd bump up Karissa Schweizer's chances to around 7%. She's definitely world class and could well round back into that 14:26 form for Tokyo, but it's more likely that it'll take 14:10 form to medal.
I concur with the compliments on the post. If I were to simplify it and add my own revisions, I’d put all athletes in 4 categories:
1. Likely medalist/I’d be surprised if these athletes didn’t medal: Athing Mu
2. Realistic chance at a medal, but I’d be wholly unsurprised if it didn’t happen: Emma, Centro, Chelimo
3. Unlikely medalist, but it could happen in the right race: Rogers, Wilson, Rupp, Murphy, Purrier, Hocker
4. No realistic chance to medal: Everbody else. ((Btw. I’m not a person who sees 14th place in the Olympic 5000 as a failure.))
norseMN wrote:
I concur with the compliments on the post. If I were to simplify it and add my own revisions, I’d put all athletes in 4 categories:
1. Likely medalist/I’d be surprised if these athletes didn’t medal: Athing Mu
2. Realistic chance at a medal, but I’d be wholly unsurprised if it didn’t happen: Emma, Centro, Chelimo
3. Unlikely medalist, but it could happen in the right race: Rogers, Wilson, Rupp, Murphy, Purrier, Hocker
4. No realistic chance to medal: Everbody else. ((Btw. I’m not a person who sees 14th place in the Olympic 5000 as a failure.))
I clearly forgot to put Frericks in my category 3. She’s an unlikely, but possible medalist.
Chelimo is underrated. I'd give him 25-30% chance of medaling.
I like your list. But Abdi is 44 on paper maybe closer to 50. I am starting to realize prime exists for track not too much in the marathon as it seems at 40 plus it just matters more about recovery and balancing life's priorities.