What are the odds no American is in the 1500 final?

GrapeSon wrote:

I don't know how fit the Americans are, but this is gonna be fast.

And I think the 1:48-3:58-7:57 guy who droped down to 1:46-3:50-13:19 is in for the ride of his life.

Odds that none of them make the finals?

Very, very, very, very low.

I just don’t know how you can think that Hocker wasn’t capable of better than 3:35 when he ran that two times in 2 weeks, both after rounds and both with a slow start/huge finish. Don’t care what PR is on paper, he’s obviously a much faster guy than a 3:35.

If you’re dead set on “he is not capable of better than 3:35 simply because he hasn’t done it” then you’re too obtuse to debate.

I’m not guaranteeing we’re gonna medal or definitely get 2-3 through, but we certainly have a shot at two into the final and either of them can sneak in for a medal if the stars align.

Leo did it, and he ran similarly to how Hocker does. Centro may be getting up there in age, but he has a 1st, 3rd and 4th in international finals’ on his resume and it’s pretty much inarguable that he gets himself in fantastic position. If TC isnt in there, tactics will play a major role. If he is, it will be more about fitness and how people react to a guy who will likely try to break it up immediately.

In scenario A- Centro can get in it because he will be 1st or 2nd at the bell.

In scenario B- who knows. But if Hocker is still closing like a freight train, and TC just took it out in 2:49, there may be bodies coming back.

Is Timmy in the Olympics now?

Do you mean the men's final?

Pretty sure Elle Purrier will make the final.

GrapeSon wrote:

suspicion in the ignition wrote:

Hey Alan, I think 3:35 can definitely cut it. In 2016, NO ONE in any heat ran sub 3:38, and the final was won in 3:50! Tactics are important, and in this case, that just means having a kick is important.

I'd love a final where someone runs 3:32, but the last time that happened was 2000, and that was the OR.

Cheruiyot, Ingebrigtsen and Mcsweyn will be in that final, 3 phenomenal runners that have an interest in it being fast from the gun. Cheruiyot ran 3:29 to win WC in 2019 and that worked like a charm for him, in what world does a 3:35 race benefit him more than a sub-3:30?

I don't know how fit the Americans are, but this is gonna be fast.

I see what you mean, but you're saying Cheruiyot will smash the Olympic Record by 3 seconds? He just ran 3:28, though that was with one of the best rabbits ever. Also, is Timmy even in the olympics yet?

It is almost guaranteed that Hocker will be top 5, Centro top 8. Coin flip whether Nuguse makes the final.

Hocker's kick is the best in the business. That kick will get him through the heats, which are never fast, in the slowest times possible. He'll make the final.

The Olympics have rounds and are not Monaco.

There were no American men in the Olympic 1500m final in 2008 (Lagat trials winner), 2004 (Webb trials winner) and 1996 (McMullen trials winner)

American medaled in 2016 and 2012.

Tim C is not on the Kenyan team this year.

I think the early Olympics helps Hocker as it’s hard to hold that college peak deep into the summer.

Nuguse could have more in him.

The years Centro didn’t do well at a championship were when he had an injury or unhealthy stretch that we were aware of.

He seems fine now.

Star wrote:

There were no American men in the Olympic 1500m final in 2008 (Lagat trials winner), 2004 (Webb trials winner) and 1996 (McMullen trials winner)

American medaled in 2016 and 2012.

Tim C is not on the Kenyan team this year.

I think the early Olympics helps Hocker as it’s hard to hold that college peak deep into the summer.

Nuguse could have more in him.

The years Centro didn’t do well at a championship were when he had an injury or unhealthy stretch that we were aware of.

He seems fine now.

I like this. Fact based, nothing to do with emotions.

I’d give odds to make a big bet on Americans making the final. Anybody want the other side, make a proposition and we can set it up.

shea it aint so wrote:

I like this. Fact based, nothing to do with emotions.

I’d give odds to make a big bet on Americans making the final. Anybody want the other side, make a proposition and we can set it up.

Is there in fact a way for two individuals to make a wager via some kind of app? Like two people send $100 to a third party and that entity sends $197.5 to the winner. But I guess arbitrating disputes would make that pretty dicey.

I bet there is.

Would you want to make one?

Obtuse? Call Andy Dufresne. Give him his line back.

He ain't capable of 3:30-31. I'll give em 3:33. And like I said.....3:33-35 ain't gonna cut it.

We have guys capable of 3:33-35......as does everyone else in the world. We are middling and mediocre. Our guys have a 50/50 chance of making the final. One semi is likely to be out of their reach. One is likely to be within. So imma go with 1 to the final to finish 6-10. 2 out of back door.

Alan

25% none

35% one

40% some

20% any medal

alphas only wrote:

Hocker and Centro will both make the final and prove the doubters wrong. Again. For like the 12th time this year.

Centro is the defending Olympic. He is expected to make the final and it will be an upset if he doesn't.

Hocker is still very much an unknown at this point with only a year of racing in the US under his belt.

calico cat wrote:

Statistically I think it's just the best team OTHER people have sent. I don't have much faith in nuguse to be honest but in a non tactical race Centro and hocker bother will atleast make the final. Neither of them are going to break 3:30 so if it's fast like Monaco was we won't medal. But any races above 3:33 I'd say there is a chance, it's a small one but it's there.

Don't underestimate Nguse. He did get 3rd, beating Engels. He is the college record holder.

I think there is a better chance at all three making the final than none.

The good thing about the US trials is how well it simulates the Olympics.

The first round was easy to get through but they still had to run it and throw on a big kick at the end.

The US semi was tough enough to knock out Kessler, who had run 3:34 this year.

The final was about controlling their nerves, positioning and then flying at the end.

Kenya screwed up their Olympic preparation the last two times. You can’t count on them to do this right.

The Tokyo time and the whole way their days will go there will be tough on everyone.

There’s more pressure on the faster runners.

Even though he is defending champ, expectations for Centro are low. I don’t know if he will feel as much pressure as someone line Jakob.

In the past 365 days at least 3 runners from each of these countries have run faster than our guys:

KEN

ETH

ESP

GBR

AUS

Countries with 2 runners faster than our guys:

NOR

FRA

QAT

MAR

EVERYONE is a 3:33-35 guy who thinks they just need the right race in Europe to run 3:30. Yep. We are middle of the road.

Alan

Why do you keep talking about recent times?

Do you not follow the sport?

Centro’s SB in 2016 was 3:34.

When Lagat won his only 1500 Gold in 2007, his SB was 3:33.8 that year.

The Americans didn’t run in Monaco. A big reason they don’t have fast times.

It’s not like they lined up in races that went out in 1:52 and they couldn’t keep up.

They do have a lot of practice in negative split races, which is how the championship races usually go. Especially the heats.