Yeah. I expect Jakob to have recovered and to be better in Tokyo. Second favourite after Timothy, and if Tim goes out trying for 3:28 solo he might fade so that Jakob, who is drafting, could overtake him in the end.
Yeah. I expect Jakob to have recovered and to be better in Tokyo. Second favourite after Timothy, and if Tim goes out trying for 3:28 solo he might fade so that Jakob, who is drafting, could overtake him in the end.
If he can run half a second from his PB outkicking one of the best 1500m runners at the moment (McSweyn) in the finish AFTER A WEEK WITH THROAT INFECTION AND ANTIBIOTICS THREATMENT I think he should be very satisfied. According to the post race interview he WAS quite relieved over his performance.
A short while ago Jakob beat Katir rather easily and also some other world class runners in the DL Florens 5000m. If Jakob is back at his very best in Tokyo he will regain his superiority over Katir and perhaps to challenge Timothy too.
So I think it is too early to crown Timothy as the king if he runs in Tokyo. Jakob seems to have been one level up this year so I won´t be surprised if he goes sub 3:28 in Tokyo if the pace is fast.
If Cheruiyot is in Tokyo, it won't be a slow race. The guy is a born front runner and hates to leave it to a slow kicking race. He is the Kenyan version of Pre. This is to Jakob's advantage.
It’s hard to see Jakob out kicking Tim I have to say. Does he need to though? Silver in a fast race feels like a great step in his career. If he’s steady like today with a little more pop, a 3:29-3:30 with a controlled close defeats the kickers.
marwar wrote:
Norweigan papers say Jakob hasn’t trained for two weeks. Sounds peculiar though.
It's not true. Here is a translation from the Norwegian NRK:
I woke up with a sore throat. Luckily for me, I was not very ill, but I had severe sore throat. Then I lay on the couch and took my life in stride. I have been jogging lightly and had a little session since. Doing too much can be dangerous. At the same time, I wanted to run a race before Tokyo, he says.
If you had read his father's book you'd know that their ultimate goal is for one of the brothers to run an even paced 3.20-3.22.
Yes, 3.20-3.22.
Five is the magic number wrote:
If you had read his father's book you'd know that their ultimate goal is for one of the brothers to run an even paced 3.20-3.22.
Yes, 3.20-3.22.
Yeah, and Gwen Jorgensen was going to win a Gold Medal in the marathon.
cramberrys wrote:
Yeah. I expect Jakob to have recovered and to be better in Tokyo. Second favourite after Timothy, and if Tim goes out trying for 3:28 solo he might fade so that Jakob, who is drafting, could overtake him in the end.
Drafting off of Cheruiyot is easier said than done. He ran 55/1:51 at Doha and if Jakob covered such a pace, he would be risking not winning any medal at all.
If Jakob is back at his very best in Tokyo he will be able to go with Timothy.
This isn´t 2019 any more. Neither is it 2020. Things change!
He actually has a damned good kick.
He outkicks nearly everyone
lol yea, everyone thinks Jakob has a "bad kick", but the reality is that Potato Tim is one of the best 1500m runners of all time with maybe a three second faster 800m pb than Jakob. If you look at Jakobs races not against Potato Tim the last year he has been able to kick the last hundred in 3:33-35 races pretty consistently. Jakobs greatest weakness previously was kicking too soon with 400-300m to go (5000m 2019 worlds, 3000m Rome DL 2020, 2019 5000m London DL), but when he is patient he can outkick 99% of the field because he is way fitter than them. Jakob missed about a week of training and was probably a bit conservative, but only got beat by a Potato Tim in his best shape ever and obviously doping Katir who is not running the 1500m in Tokyo.
The Unkle wrote:
He actually has a damned good kick.
He outkicks nearly everyone
Not really. He outkicked Gebrhiwet who was on 3 days rest after a 10,000 and is I guess Ethiopia’s 6th best 5k/10k runner or so? Has he outkicked anyone else of note? Otherwise he’s been outkicked by Katir, Kiplimo, Lewandowski, Gebrhiwet, Barega, Edris, Ahmed in pretty big spots. He is very fit and can hold people off. It is not that he can’t finish, but more he doesn’t have a change of pace, which is what people mean by kick in this context. Tim didn’t used to but you can see now that he expands his margin the last 50 meters with an acceleration. He also is willing to take the lead early in a championship race.
tips4youtube wrote:
If Cheruiyot is in Tokyo, it won't be a slow race. The guy is a born front runner and hates to leave it to a slow kicking race. He is the Kenyan version of Pre. This is to Jakob's advantage.
Agreed, and we all know Jakob will be in better form in Tokyo as compared to Monaco. Perhaps Cheruiyot will even underestimate Jakob based on this performance?
Does anyone think that Katir is really better than Jakob over 1500m?
Jakob must learn from 2019 for your guys’ assessment to be correct if Cheruiyot is in the field. He can’t let Tim gap him. It is his best tactic to make others work hard to pass him the final 400. So, yes it should be good for him but only if he separates from everyone else. If he lays back with the rest of the field until the last 250 like last time, it doesn’t matter how fast Tim makes it I would not confident in his medal prospects. So it’s about playing to his strengths (superior fitness, engine) and avoiding his weakness (gears in the final straight).
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Jakob must learn from 2019 for your guys’ assessment to be correct if Cheruiyot is in the field. He can’t let Tim gap him. It is his best tactic to make others work hard to pass him the final 400. So, yes it should be good for him but only if he separates from everyone else. If he lays back with the rest of the field until the last 250 like last time, it doesn’t matter how fast Tim makes it I would not confident in his medal prospects. So it’s about playing to his strengths (superior fitness, engine) and avoiding his weakness (gears in the final straight).
Tim has WAY more speed than Jakob and is also the faster 1500m runner. Jakob should not be concerned with Tim at all, his goal should be to medal and hold off his real threats and competition.
He should just concede the win to Tim, and make sure he doesn't lose to the kickers like Lewandowski (who is now officially a 3:30 runner, with great speed so a massive threat to Jakob and McSweyn in the right race).
Otherwise he will burn trying to beat Tim, get destroyed on the home straight and go home with 0 medals again like in Doha.
To those who said Tim and Jakob have similar speeds - that's because Tim never actually was threatened enough to kick really hard at the end, or that he already was at a disadvantage because he was frontrunning for everyone else. Fact is, Tim almost broke 1:43 in the 800 and Jakob, in a perfectly set-up race, paced by his brother only managed a 1:46.44 despite ghost and many other LRC users claiming he is going to easily run 1:43. If you only run 1:46 off 3:28 1500m your 400m speed and 100m speed simply can't be competitive with all the 47/1:43 guys in the mix in the 1500m.
I’m not saying challenge Tim for the win LRP (welcome back!). I am saying use him as pacemaker and benefit from his hard pace. Jakob is the clear no. 2, so if he runs a hard, honest race behind Tim he’ll hold off the rest. What Kwemoi tried to do in 2019, Jakob can actually do. He has the engine to run 328-29 and finish nicely. No need to play games with the kickers.
To outkick Tim, Jakob and Katir too will just have to learn the basic sprint mechanics Tim is better at. In particular the arm drive. Else they have no chance unless Tim has an off day.
Katir is runking the 5000m, not the 1500m in Tokyo plus he probably will be banned before the final
Kobbs Hessler wrote:
Great race, great time in Monaco. But he didn't have that final gear at the end. H should do the 5000 in Tokyo instead.
Think about it folks…Jakob ran during heavy training. Cheryuiot needed a fast time and a win to get selected. You do the math… he will be ready when it matters
What about a runner that has already peaked.
Some runners achieve their full physical development at age 19.