Do you think a woman will ever run a sub 4 mile? Let's hear your thoughts

Noah Hansen wrote:

1500m equivalent counts as well in my mind. Do you think it's possible for a woman to run such a time?

I think it could happen someday, but the sport is not there yet.

done ever underestimate the power of the pork burrito, sub 4 is happening at some point, whether it's legal at the time, who knows

Never say never but I think for anyone man or woman to run a sub-4 mile they would need to be capable of 1:52-1:53 800 at the slowest and right now not even female 800 specialists run that fast.

I’m figuring some major break along the way.

Wang’s 1993 10,000m record seemed unbreakable.

It’s been whacked down 30 seconds. Most of that over the last month.

The 1500 is due.

An XY woman could do it!

Star wrote:

I’m figuring some major break along the way.

Wang’s 1993 10,000m record seemed unbreakable.

It’s been whacked down 30 seconds. Most of that over the last month.

The 1500 is due.

A 3:50 1500 is equivalent to about 28:40, so the 10000 WR is still a little soft.

Noah Hansen wrote:

1500m equivalent counts as well in my mind. Do you think it's possible for a woman to run such a time?

I think it could happen someday, but the sport is not there yet.

We're probably 5-10 years of solid relentless doping by some really fast and talented women from it happening.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Star wrote:

I’m figuring some major break along the way.

Wang’s 1993 10,000m record seemed unbreakable.

It’s been whacked down 30 seconds. Most of that over the last month.

The 1500 is due.

A 3:50 1500 is equivalent to about 28:40, so the 10000 WR is still a little soft.

What? A 3:50 1500m is equivalent to more like a 30 minute 10k. Think about what college men do. Women tend to be better than men comparatively for longer distances.

Looking at the performance scoring calculator (

https://caltaf.com/pointscalc/calc.html

)

A 4:00 mile for Women Indoors is 1377 points / Outdoor is 1346 points

For outdoor performances a 1346 also translates to

(800m) 1:50.12

(1500m) 3:43.06

(3000m) 7:51.89

(5000m) 13:29.32

(10000m) 28:16.04

I think the highest performance ever scored for womens running was Letesenbet Gidey's 1319 from her 15km world best. (Kipchoge's marathon WR of 2:01:39 for example is scored 1316pts and if his 1:59:40 was legal it would be scored 1353pts)

A 1346 seems pretty insane to comprehend, while 1377 is nearing impossible since 1400 is the theoretical "perfect score" even comprehensible. But with constant upgrades to aid athletic performance, we could see a performance to that degree with a perfect set up similar to Kipchoge's sub 2 attempts.

Gazellie wrote:

Looking at the performance scoring calculator (

https://caltaf.com/pointscalc/calc.html

)

A 4:00 mile for Women Indoors is 1377 points / Outdoor is 1346 points

For outdoor performances a 1346 also translates to

(800m) 1:50.12

(1500m) 3:43.06

(3000m) 7:51.89

(5000m) 13:29.32

(10000m) 28:16.04

I think the highest performance ever scored for womens running was Letesenbet Gidey's 1319 from her 15km world best. (Kipchoge's marathon WR of 2:01:39 for example is scored 1316pts and if his 1:59:40 was legal it would be scored 1353pts)

A 1346 seems pretty insane to comprehend, while 1377 is nearing impossible since 1400 is the theoretical "perfect score" even comprehensible. But with constant upgrades to aid athletic performance, we could see a performance to that degree with a perfect set up similar to Kipchoge's sub 2 attempts.

I can back you up on that. Yes Gidey's 15k is the highest scoring. It's underrated because people don't know the 15k as well, but I was actually talking on another thread the other day about how Gidey's 44:20 is one of the best world records in history. BUT, keep this in mind....

If Kipchoge's INEOS challenge would have been rated a 1353, theoretically if there was a female Kipchoge equivalent talent wise for the mile, then a similar score could be achieved. I believe that someday as training, shoes, and pacing continues to improve, that a woman (naturally born or it doesn't count) could run a mile in under 4 minutes.

Walmart Superstore wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

A 3:50 1500 is equivalent to about 28:40, so the 10000 WR is still a little soft.

What? A 3:50 1500m is equivalent to more like a 30 minute 10k. Think about what college men do. Women tend to be better than men comparatively for longer distances.

I did see 28:40 for some of the on-line calculaters and for sure it's not 30 minutes. Using the same proportions as the men's records, I calculated 29:00.

I don't know. Betting against this kind of barrier-breaking is a fool's game. But if it ever happens, I hope it at least takes place in legal racing conditions. Pacing is fair game, within the currently accepted rules, but I don't want to see it happen in some kind of travesty akin to the Sub-2 "Marathon" project. I hope we don't see a woman surrounded by a phalanx of male pacers on a 1-mile stretch of straight track that has been specially constructed to given maximum energy return - or anything of that nature.

I believe that someday as training, shoes, and pacing continues to improve, that a woman (naturally born or it doesn't count) could run a mile in under 4 minutes. (*quote)

Training? Training hasn't improved since Lydiard.

Doping has. That's easy to comprehend for most, but not for you, of course.

People are throwing around "8 seconds" like it's a rounding error. Has anyone here run under 4:10 for the mile? 8 seconds is huuuuge. I wish I could just erase of my mile time as though it was just an inevitability.

I know the OP said to include 1500-conversion, but the mile WR is 4:12. That's a time run by a highly-tuned, peak-performance, possibly-assisted, genetic freak. Where is she going to suddenly squeeze another 12 seconds out of??

Never going to happen.

People who are saying give it 20, 30, 50 years have an assumption in their mind that progress is inevitable and without limitation but that's not reality. We'll never see another 4:12 mile run by a woman. That's their max and a questionable max at that.

The Ghost of Armstronglivs wrote:

I believe that someday as training, shoes, and pacing continues to improve, that a woman (naturally born or it doesn't count) could run a mile in under 4 minutes. (*quote)

Training? Training hasn't improved since Lydiard.

Doping has. That's easy to comprehend for most, but not for you, of course.

Let's see:

- inability to use the Quote button - check

- stating that training methods stopped evolving in the late 70s/early 80s - check

- doping accusations for anyone faster than his heroes from those years - check

- immature insult - check

Well done!

*erase 8 seconds off my mile time as though it was just an inevitability.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Walmart Superstore wrote:

What? A 3:50 1500m is equivalent to more like a 30 minute 10k. Think about what college men do. Women tend to be better than men comparatively for longer distances.

I did see 28:40 for some of the on-line calculaters and for sure it's not 30 minutes. Using the same proportions as the men's records, I calculated 29:00.

3:50 1500m outdoors is 1287pts on the iaaf scoring calculator

1287pts has equivalent performances of:

29:18.18 for 10000m

13:57.92 for 5000m

8:08.03 for 3000m

etc.

Some interesting thing about the iaaf performance calculator is that there are differing values in the performance scores for Men and Women even if the performance is the same time and distance. Indoor and Outdoor performances are also scored differently as well.

What about Raisin? wrote:

I don't know. Betting against this kind of barrier-breaking is a fool's game. But if it ever happens, I hope it at least takes place in legal racing conditions. Pacing is fair game, within the currently accepted rules, but I don't want to see it happen in some kind of travesty akin to the Sub-2 "Marathon" project. I hope we don't see a woman surrounded by a phalanx of male pacers on a 1-mile stretch of straight track that has been specially constructed to given maximum energy return - or anything of that nature.

The scenario you describe would not be a 4:00 mile and the men's marathon WR is not 1:59:40.

krispy kremlin._._._. wrote:

People are throwing around "8 seconds" like it's a rounding error. Has anyone here run under 4:10 for the mile? 8 seconds is huuuuge. I wish I could just erase of my mile time as though it was just an inevitability.

I know the OP said to include 1500-conversion, but the mile WR is 4:12. That's a time run by a highly-tuned, peak-performance, possibly-assisted, genetic freak. Where is she going to suddenly squeeze another 12 seconds out of??

Never going to happen.

People who are saying give it 20, 30, 50 years have an assumption in their mind that progress is inevitable and without limitation but that's not reality. We'll never see another 4:12 mile run by a woman. That's their max and a questionable max at that.

Agreed with the first part. I ran 3:49-high. 4:08 full mile equivalent. Just a hair faster than Dibaba (thank god). I was 22 when I ran that, running 90 miles per week. I think if I had trained 5 more years, and run 100-110, I could've taken 2-3 seconds off. There was no world in which I was running under 3:42 (or 4:00 mile). And that's just for an individual athlete. It's even harder with a record. I don't believe we will see a woman run under 4:00 without some serious PEDs. Even then it seems unlikely (all of the 3:50 women were doping hard, especially Ma's Army).

The second part I don't agree with. 4:12 is clearly not the max, with how many women have run 3:50-3:53 for 1500m. They just don't run the mile enough. I also strongly believe a woman will run under 3:50 one day. Tsegay and Hassan seem potentially capable of it right now (though I think both need to improve their 800m speed a bit, 1:56-1:57 is very slow for someone trying to run 61s for a 1500...I was 1:52.1 when I ran 3:49). 3:49 seems doable, but the drop from 3:49 to 3:41 seems insurmountable for the foreseeable future.

krispy kremlin._._._. wrote:

People are throwing around "8 seconds" like it's a rounding error. Has anyone here run under 4:10 for the mile? 8 seconds is huuuuge. I wish I could just erase of my mile time as though it was just an inevitability.

I know the OP said to include 1500-conversion, but the mile WR is 4:12. That's a time run by a highly-tuned, peak-performance, possibly-assisted, genetic freak. Where is she going to suddenly squeeze another 12 seconds out of??

Never going to happen.

People who are saying give it 20, 30, 50 years have an assumption in their mind that progress is inevitable and without limitation but that's not reality. We'll never see another 4:12 mile run by a woman. That's their max and a questionable max at that.

I am not going to agree with this sentence of your post but I agree with the gist of your post.

It just so happens that female one mile world record is held by a 1500m to 1/2 Marathon athlete.

I believe a 1:54 or 1:55 800m/1500m specialist can improve one mile world record, sub-4, that is a long shot.