He doesn't have to do classes online, he lives in a city with a great university. Go to UM, sign with Nike or Adidas, train with Ron and get yourself set for the next 10 years. He can even live in the dorms and have the university experience.
There is nothing he can do in the NCAA that will increase his value.
People saying "he already trains like a pro" are outrageous. Sure doing workouts with such high level training partners is a nontrivial part of the equation. But have you seen the kids strava? Do you remember that until winter of this year he was an unheard of , unremarkable, 4:25ish runner who apparently excelled at rock climbing?
In terms of a performance to training ratio, Kessler seems like a good candidate for the most talented American high schooler ever seen. Ryun is of course legendary, but so was his training, and he excelled for several years in high school. Kessler has seemingly went from 4:2x 1600m to 3:34 1500m essentially overnight, and has no discernible training volume to justify any of it.
His strava is available. It's unclear if he logs everything there, but the last 12 weeks have mileage of 17miles at the lowest to 42 miles at the highest, probably averaging around 30-35mpw. That is an unthinkably miniscule amount of training, especially when you think he may have only been doing it for 6 months or a year, in which to develop the aerobic capacity for 3:34 and beyond.
From his strava, one can see that his easy runs are insignificant affairs sometimes reaching up to 45 to 55min, as "fast" as 7:15 pace or so. But more often 3-5 miles at 7:30-8:00. There is almost no discernible aerobic conditioning happening in his training outside of primary workouts. That is remarkable. Say what you will about hard days hard and easy days easy, but from Lydiard to Canova and everyone in between, the significance of aerobic conditioning using sustained aerobic running *for distance runners* is indisputable.
At any rate, he seems to have infinitely untapped potential. Imagine the kind of lifetime mileage and aerobic conditioning Jakob Ingebrigtsen had accumulated to reach similar (and so far better) performances at Kessler's age. Kessler has produced them within 6-12months of running probably less than 4 or 5 hours a week. Jakob probably spent double that time on the skis when he was 8 years old!
The only caveat is if Kessler is in fact a freakishly talented Brazier / Murphy type, who will never approach significant aerobic mileage in his career and instead focus on 800m / 1500m. His performances thus far at 800 vs 3200 lead me to believe he will end up a genuine distance runner, but i suppose only time will tell. NAU should be able to have him around 13:15 or much faster in his first year there.
Nobody in their right minds would choose NAU over a pro contract. He’ll likely receive a similar deal as Drew Hunter, which means a 6 figure income with bonuses. He’ll get to be a part-time student at one of the best public schools in the US instead of getting a crappy education at NAU. Warhurst’s methods have been proven to work with Hobbs, while it’s very possible Smith’s training might ruin him.
Only downside I guess is that Michigan has pretty crappy rock climbing compared to northern Arizona, but he’s been able to deal with it so far.
Since Kessler's not enrolled in college, it doesn't matter when he runs the time, in-season or not. It's not a collegiate record. Neither are Lagat / Wheating / Ryun's times. Bear in mind, there are no official college records. Only Track & Field News' unofficial records which count only in-season marks as college records. Strangely, they count out-of-season high school marks -- like Webb's mile record -- as high school records.
start the adidas group out of michigan and drew joins maybe he will get better
peppa wrote:
Building your fitness up with guys who have ran 3:37 and 3:35/8:19 probably does a lot more for you.
Will you please learn the conjugation of the verb "run" since you're posting about running on a running website. Where did you illiterates go to school?
Why so much anger for a mistake
Fight your own demons before you come on our silly little running form
If Rojo can be illiterate and go to Cornell anyone is at risk
Normal guy who knows grammar wrote:
peppa wrote:
Building your fitness up with guys who have ran 3:37 and 3:35/8:19 probably does a lot more for you.
Will you please learn the conjugation of the verb "run" since you're posting about running on a running website. Where did you illiterates go to school?
Doesn't bother me. No one's turning in a term paper here or a business report, just throwaway comments between regulars.
peppa-otp wrote:
Why so much anger for a mistake
Fight your own demons before you come on our silly little running form
If Rojo can be illiterate and go to Cornell anyone is at risk
It wasn't just a mistake. You've done it twice in this thread. You really think "have ran" is correct, which is shocking to me.
It’s painful reading “he would’ve ran.” Not saying every post needs to be poetry, but learn to conjugate the verb “to run,” or else maybe start a new site called letsran.com.
Normal guy who knows grammar wrote:
peppa-otp wrote:
Why so much anger for a mistake
Fight your own demons before you come on our silly little running form
If Rojo can be illiterate and go to Cornell anyone is at risk
It wasn't just a mistake. You've done it twice in this thread. You really think "have ran" is correct, which is shocking to me.
Run is the passive version, Ran is the active version. "Have ran" is the right way to say it dude, relax.
VroomVroom wrote:
This is exact why is potential is meh.
I hereby proclaim this as the single worst take in letsrun history
It will join multiple other proclamations of mine as the single worst take ever, but this time I really think I mean it.
I'm thinking Hobbs could still benefit from some collegiate running. His current setup clearly does work, but he's still very young and it does good for any runner to expand their horizons. Mike Smith is also an incredible coach and I think working with him will benefit Hobbs, even if he only spends a year or two there before going pro. Plus the altitude will be helpful.
quasilogarithm wrote:
His performances thus far at 800 vs 3200 lead me to believe he will end up a genuine distance runner, but i suppose only time will tell. .
Not based off what Willis says.
Hobbs is routinely doing less and getting whopped on by Willis and Mason in tempos but dusts them in the more all out type intervals. An example being Hobbs setting the Michigan workout 400m record earlier this year with like a 50.4 if I recall correctly. The kid has wheels.
What is 'training like a pro'?? Pretty much everyone does the same thing. NCAA workouts are the same as 'pro' workouts. You run some mileage and do some workouts and do some strength training. When you become 'pro' you don't suddenly start doing different things from what you used to do.
Many 'pros' run around 90 miles per week with some workouts and a long run and lift weights. I'll show you hundreds of college kids who also do that. And I doubt Hobbs is even that high mileage yet. So he is actually not 'training like a pro' yet. He probably has a lot of room to increase mileage still.
DontForgetTheShoes wrote:
peppa wrote:
He trains under Warhurst with Olympic caliber runners and instead of running with say a 4:30 miler teammates.
Building your fitness up with guys who have ran 3:37 and 3:35/8:19 probably does a lot more for you. He gets to go to school and then train with those dudes. That's why I think if he went pro it would be smoother than some other pros.
He would have his setup stay the way it is and just continue doing his thing.
And don't forget the shoes.
Great idea though. Turn pro and continue to live as he's doing now: live at home, school, and world class training. Bypass the college team nonsense.
This would have made a difference for Webb. Keep doing what works. We need to produce world and Olympic medal contenders, not NCAA champs.
NCAA train like pros wrote:
What is 'training like a pro'?? Pretty much everyone does the same thing. NCAA workouts are the same as 'pro' workouts. You run some mileage and do some workouts and do some strength training. When you become 'pro' you don't suddenly start doing different things from what you used to do.
Many 'pros' run around 90 miles per week with some workouts and a long run and lift weights. I'll show you hundreds of college kids who also do that. And I doubt Hobbs is even that high mileage yet. So he is actually not 'training like a pro' yet. He probably has a lot of room to increase mileage still.
Different mindset and expectations when training with world class athletes. It’s a different level and you get a taste of the responsibility of having no NCAA umbilical cord. While Rull competed with an O singlet he most often than not worked out separately from the rest of the team. He was trained with a pro mindset.
bugattiaron wrote:
I'm thinking Hobbs could still benefit from some collegiate running. His current setup clearly does work, but he's still very young and it does good for any runner to expand their horizons. Mike Smith is also an incredible coach and I think working with him will benefit Hobbs, even if he only spends a year or two there before going pro. Plus the altitude will be helpful.
Disagree. Time is precious and you don’t mess with a winning formula. Besides, he does not need to attend school right away. Why change something that works? In this case, the athlete obviously fully believes in the training he’s getting and in the process. Better to leave that be.
No doubt this dude should stay home and run for Ron. He's already there. NAU is more of a 5k/10k school and cross. Sullivan knows the drill and it would be seamless at U of M (plus way better academics). Back in the fall when he was "just really good", NAU made sense. Now leave him with Ron/Sully.