Would have to disagree. Although yes there is currently light years (2.5ish seconds) between her time and the womans world record she is only 18-19. Again take Michael Johnson as an example. When he was 20 his best 400 was 46.27s. He went on to run 43.18 to break the world record when he was 32. Obviously a lot definitely has to go in her favor - e.g no major career ending injuries and to remain motivated etc but she could definitely achieve it.
GreatDane wrote:
Would have to disagree. Although yes there is currently light years (2.5ish seconds) between her time and the womans world record she is only 18-19. Again take Michael Johnson as an example. When he was 20 his best 400 was 46.27s. He went on to run 43.18 to break the world record when he was 32. Obviously a lot definitely has to go in her favor - e.g no major career ending injuries and to remain motivated etc but she could definitely achieve it.
Yeah but look at Sanya Richards Ross.
Age 19 49.89
Age 20 48.92
Age 21 48.70
That 48.70 at age 21 remained her lifetime best. Why do you think Athing is likely to improve more at 400m?
I'm saying a lot of other athletes have taken many years to achieve their life time bests so it may also be the case for her. Sure she may just peak early like the example you gave but it could go either way. I definitely wouldn't take the stand that she can't do it.
George213 wrote:
GreatDane wrote:
Incredible for such a young athlete! She has a good 10-12 years up her sleeve to break both the 400m and 800m world records. Michael Johnson was 30ish when he finally broke the 400.
No way she can break the 400m WR, but there's a remote possibility she can get the 800m's.
I agree. Such gracious and non-power based stride is an indicator for great things in the 800m.
For a historical 400m Mu lacks power, which maybe she can build up if she focuses on the sprints.
Mu's running style reminds me of the great Marie- Jose Perec who went on to run 48.2ish. Whose to say Mu couldn't improve on this. Also I do feel the argument that a purported ideal running style/power/stride makes or breaks an athletes potential is not necessarily valid. Michael Johnson's style/stride/running form was ridiculed endlessly but his results speak for themselves.
It could be possible for her to join the exclusive sub 1:54 club, but the WR will probably stand forever.
What a shame it is that Caster Semenya is banned. We could have seen some very fast and exciting racing over the event, I'm sure they would have pushed eachother towards the 1:53s.
GreatDane wrote:
Mu's running style reminds me of the great Marie- Jose Perec who went on to run 48.2ish. Whose to say Mu couldn't improve on this. Also I do feel the argument that a purported ideal running style/power/stride makes or breaks an athletes potential is not necessarily valid. Michael Johnson's style/stride/running form was ridiculed endlessly but his results speak for themselves.
Can we stop with the Ackbar comparisons?
Mu is 10x the athlete that Ackbar ever was.
Hopefully Mu doesn’t peak at 30, you know?
Ackbar?
What do you think Mu will be running at age 21 then? Aside from NCAA indoor, she has not faced much competition. The pr's are still coming in big .5 second, full second chunks. She has not yet been in a single diamond league meet. I'll be an optimist on records not this year, but in the 2023-25 period.
think first wrote:
George213 wrote:
No way she can break the 400m WR, but there's a remote possibility she can get the 800m's.
I agree. Such gracious and non-power based stride is an indicator for great things in the 800m.
For a historical 400m Mu lacks power, which maybe she can build up if she focuses on the sprints.
I don't know much about her stride, but I have acquainted with a few sub-1:55 runners , all but two of them have a faster 400m PR than Mu, and both of them can't run a sub 4:10 1500m to save their lives (though one ran a 47.90 ish 400m and a 1:52 800m), so I would say Mu already has the wheel, and her endurance is coming along as well with her recent 4:16 (with a 62 secs finish!).
GreatDane wrote:
Would have to disagree. Although yes there is currently light years (2.5ish seconds) between her time and the womans world record she is only 18-19. Again take Michael Johnson as an example. When he was 20 his best 400 was 46.27s. He went on to run 43.18 to break the world record when he was 32. Obviously a lot definitely has to go in her favor - e.g no major career ending injuries and to remain motivated etc but she could definitely achieve it.
Michael Johnson was a sprinter; Mu isn't. He was a world record holder over the 200, as well as the 400. The 400 is a sprint. She has yet to break 23 for the 200. (23.7 is her pr.) Unless she can run 22 or better the 400 record is completely out of reach. She does not have that kind of speed (Felix or Miller-Uibo level).
George213 wrote:
think first wrote:
I agree. Such gracious and non-power based stride is an indicator for great things in the 800m.
For a historical 400m Mu lacks power, which maybe she can build up if she focuses on the sprints.
I don't know much about her stride, but I have acquainted with a few sub-1:55 runners , all but two of them have a faster 400m PR than Mu, and both of them can't run a sub 4:10 1500m to save their lives (though one ran a 47.90 ish 400m and a 1:52 800m), so I would say Mu already has the wheel, and her endurance is coming along as well with her recent 4:16 (with a 62 secs finish!).
Male runners are not a useful comparison. They have a completely different physiology.
ex-runner wrote:
It could be possible for her to join the exclusive sub 1:54 club, but the WR will probably stand forever.
What a shame it is that Caster Semenya is banned. We could have seen some very fast and exciting racing over the event, I'm sure they would have pushed eachother towards the 1:53s.
Semenya hasn't been banned. She has refused to lower her testosterone to female levels as required by the IAAF rules. If Mu started running as fast as Semenya I would be very interested in her t-levels.
GreatDane wrote:
Incredible for such a young athlete! She has a good 10-12 years up her sleeve to break both the 400m and 800m world records. Michael Johnson was 30ish when he finally broke the 400.
On the other hand, a lot of top athletes never ran faster than in their teens (Ryun, Jelimo, Amos - to mention a few). Prodigies typically don't get much faster - if at all. What some athletes achieve is never a prediction for another.
Exactly. So she may or may not go on to improve considerably. If she doesn't then she may peak in a year and never run faster than 49 for the 400m. If she does and chooses to focus on the 400m over the next decade who knows what she could go on to achieve!
No need to go sub-22 to approach the WR. Five of the top-9 400 runners all-time never broke 22 and Kratochvílová and Pérec barely broke it. But there is no arguing with you since you feel you know more about every topic known to mankind than anyone else. Even if Mu broke the WR in the 400 and the 800 but never breaks 22 you would still argue that it is impossible.
1 Marita Koch – 47.60 – 21.71
2 Jarmila Kratochvílová – 47.99 – 21.97
3 Salwa Eid Naser – 48.14 – 22.51
4 Marie-José Pérec – 48.25 – 21.99
5 Olga Bryzgina – 48.27 – 22.44
6 Shaunae Miller-Uibo – 48.37 – 21.74
7 Tatána Kocembová – 48.59 – 22.47
8 Cathy Freeman – 48.63 – 22.25
9 Sanya Richards-Ross – 48.70 – 22.09
10 Valerie Brisco – 48.83 – 21.81
Just watched her 400 / 4x100 race from this weekend...wow, she is something else. What an incredible progression from high school.
So weird watching her run...she seems absolutely effortless. I would never predict a ceiling on what she might run in the future, and certainly would not be surprised to see her push the for WR's.
Male runners are not a useful comparison. Hoe about Hasan and Koko? World record 800 is a given for Mu. Everyone but you knows it.
Jed Clampett wrote:
She is a beauty. Can I still say that?
Yes, but privately. On a messageboard is public and therefore a little tacky, in my opinion.
How is this a record when two African teenagers have ran faster this year?
Mu is def the USA’s hope for womens 800m gold. Not the 400