Prediction: Eliud Kipchoge won't win a medal at the Olympics

mmm I wanna agree but...

- Japanese man medalling

high probability of going very right or a sudden blowup towards the end

- Rupp medalling

I trust him and Coach Mike "Mike Smith" Smith of NAU to deliver

- Kipchoge

I can't see him not winning

Hardloper wrote:

He might not be a 2:01 guy anymore but he's still consistent. If it's hot in Sapporo that will disadvantage the Japanese and it will be Kipchoge vs. the other mostly inconsistent East Africans. I still see him placing top 3.

Yeah, Kipchoge seems to handle the hot temperatures very well. We saw it in rio and especially in london 2018 after a 13:48 opening, even the WR was on the warmer side, at least compared to what people may regard as ideal for records.

sapporoprediction wrote:

I know this is a bit of a bold take, but unlike the LRC report I wasn't very impressed by his performance today.

Please feel free to post your marathon resume. Include number of times run under 2:05 and number of athletes you've coached that ran anywhere near that number.

If you can't provide one or both those things, well then thanks for your not so expert analysis.

Ethiopian "trial" will inform far better - there is only justifiable doubt on Eliud winning, if the frontrunners there have a performance that is better than or equivalent to this. Otherwise he's the favourite.

I think much less likely for Rupp to medal sadly - he did very well in Rio, but the field for top ten is so much stronger.

Going to be very interesting to see the Japanese team and judging by the depth earlier this year, they've a great chance of medalling.

Hey trollism, one thing I've noticed in my life is that people who are not exactly the winners in life have a tendency to make unintelligent assumptions which are wrong about others--generally people more successful than them because they are used to seeing failure from themselves and their peers, also because they hang out with people like themselves--trash. Perhaps you are just trolling, but notice this, I dont blindly accuse you of trolling. But my instincts are usually correct. I base my words on fact and they actually have weight and integrity, unlike all the BS you spew. People actually listen when I talk. All trashy people do is spout rumors and garbage all day. No one really cares what they say except themselves. Put your money where your mouth is and bet me I don't have 100k. Let's go. You won't. Because your words have no integrity and you can't take any accountability for them. Do better.

jabouko wrote:

YEP

Merlene Ottey won Bronze in 1980 over 200m and Bronze in 2000 for 100m

and a silver in the 4x1 to boot.

incredible longevity

Nice. Thanks for doing the thinking on that one.

He may or may not win, that's not a prediction. When you look at the marathon gold medal winners since 1984 (that was the first olympic marathon I watched on TV) you will realize that the favourite rarely wins. The way how Kipchoge won in 2016 was even more suprising as it was such a slow race and not super hot - thus others should have been able to run a 2:08 easily.

We saw so many super fast men in the last 3 years that at least 10 - 15 runners have the chance to medal. Thus it was smart that Kipchoge didn't show an all out effort in Enschede, but tries to peak at the Olympics. A second medal is worth more than a 2:03 at the Twente airport.

The Olympics will be very tactical and the smartest racers (not the fastest on paper) will medal, just consider that a 2:08 man like Callum Hawkins (who is a great runner) was able to challenge 2:04 guys at the last two world championships - ok, he didn't medal.

kinda like Cole Sprout coming in seventh at nxn 2 years ago- such a letdown

Stefan_2_33 wrote:

The Olympics will be very tactical and the smartest racers (not the fastest on paper) will medal, just consider that a 2:08 man like Callum Hawkins (who is a great runner) was able to challenge 2:04 guys at the last two world championships - ok, he didn't medal.

I really hope Callum has fine-tuned his tactics just a little more - he was so close to a medal in Doha having ran very well, but his push to try and lead was poorly judged at 25 mi. Had he sat with, he could have crept into bronze.

just a regular guy in the neighborhood wrote:

While I'm less confident about this then I was before his last couple races. The fact that the each country is only allowed 3 competitors in the marathon combined with Eliud's general consistency, and the incompetence/corruption in picking a team for most East African nations leads me to assume he'll at least finish top 3.

I came to say this, mostly the 'only 3 per country, and he is very consistent' thing.... There will likely only be like 6 or 7 people capable of beating him in the race and this is only if he has an off day, and it's very doubtful all of them will run well, and he rarely runs poorly. His 2:04:30 is nothing special for him. Some other runners will have PRs faster than 2:04:30, but they often don't run faster than that.

Callum is a great tactical racer, and I think also capable of 2:06-2:07, so I'd love to see him medal. I think Kipchoge is smart as well, he has the fastest times, but also his Rio win shows he is smart, and he probably won't have to run 2:01-2:02 in the Olympics. Some of the other runners may struggle if they don't have the experience in a tactical race without pacers, thinking of Rio with Tesfaye Abera and Lemi Birhanu, fastest Ethiopians, but outside the top 10 . Lelesa Desisa won the WC marathon, and Boston and NYC so if he gets picked he could perform well.

*Lelisa

Callum is, and one of those I'll always be rooting for because he has serious talent, but I remember watching that in Doha and thinking that was a push too soon - it was very unlikely that he'd be able to lead to the close, after the work he had just done.

Eliud is a master at timing an acceleration in pace

Maybe, I think Callum didn't want to leave it to a sprint at the end.

mom's up stair making him bean

He is absolutely the favorite to win gold and any criticism of a 2:04 race is just ludicrous and you all need more work to do.

japan can be incredibly humid and hot in the summer. like a very hot st louis. it will likely be a race that is slower (doubt anyone will go out at 1:01 or 1:02 half 1/2). this favors kipchoge and rupp. i don't know if rupp has every been in a paced marathon (2017 chicago?). i wish they would get rid of pacers. they are have ruined the sport to some extent. you cannot compare times in a paced race versus a non paced race. rupp's pr could be 2-3 minutes faster or more in a fast paced race.

first 5k was at 2:05 pace, 2nd one was at 2:01 pace, after that they settled in for the next 20 miles until kip dropped them with a 4:30 mile and cruised the rest of the way in. if he is fit, he wont be losing in Tokyo.

sapporoprediction wrote:

I know this is a bit of a bold take, but unlike the LRC report I wasn't very impressed by his performance today. Honestly the last kilometers felt a bit like London last year for me, he surely wasn't bonking, but also was not able to show a fast finish like he always did in his best days. Obviously this was good enough for the win because the field was weak, but overall I think he was more vulnerable than some might have realised today (I also don't think it only was a controlled effort considering how wobbly he looked at the award ceremony). Maybe I'm wrong, but I think there is a chance that age is finally catching up with him and the days of his dominance therefore are over.

More a dumb take than a bold one. Eliud won on Sunday and will win again in Tokyo.