predictor of this wrote:
1-4-20-40-50.
Those are team places which means actual race places could be 1-5-28-55-70.
We will see what they do today, but Stanford has had a 40 second gap between 4 and 5. At Battle Born Lawson was 21st and Jenks 48th, with Roberts further back. At FSU, Connolly was 30 seconds behind Heymach (3rd). My point is they have a gap and their 5th could be 100th in NCAA.
MidFootStriker wrote:
If NC State is healthy. Claremont and Steelman both around 10. Camille 15. And then there four and five 25 + 35.
That would put them around 95. I think the winter is going to be way higher than you estimated. Probably something like 70 to a hundred
No Clairmonte for NC State. That pretty much takes them out of contention. We'll probably see Tuohy but she is still working herself back into shape after a long recovery from injury. They have the depth but l thinking losing your #1 is going to be too much to overcome.
The 1-5 gap has averaged 1:25 over the past 2 meets. Assuming their number 1 is with the leader, that would out their 5th about 75th based on 2019 results.
Tuffy wrote:
MidFootStriker wrote:
If NC State is healthy. Claremont and Steelman both around 10. Camille 15. And then there four and five 25 + 35.
That would put them around 95. I think the winter is going to be way higher than you estimated. Probably something like 70 to a hundred
No Clairmonte for NC State. That pretty much takes them out of contention. We'll probably see Tuohy but she is still working herself back into shape after a long recovery from injury. They have the depth but l thinking losing your #1 is going to be too much to overcome.
What happened to her? Man all these NC State Runners get hurt in the offseason, or between seasons. What happened? Overtraining?
predictor of this wrote:
The 1-5 gap has averaged 1:25 over the past 2 meets. Assuming their number 1 is with the leader, that would out their 5th about 75th based on 2019 results.
That does assume Donaghu was running as hard as she will have to at NCAA. In the middle of the pack 30 seconds can easily be 45 places, no?
That’s being silly. You are having Donahu even with Kelati. Put her even with Monson and 1:25 gets you 88th team score. But even that doesn’t work because NMs 5 was 32 seconds behind Donahu and that would be 16 team score. So you are essentially predicting NM is the best team ever?
No. Just putting some perspective on about how far back their 5th would be in a national meet if she is that far behind. As I stated earlier, I think they will tighten a bit which will get them an easy win.
predictor of this wrote:
No. Just putting some perspective on about how far back their 5th would be in a national meet if she is that far behind. As I stated earlier, I think they will tighten a bit which will get them an easy win.
Well we shall see. but 48th at Battle Born does not sound like 75th at NCAA.
Interesting race today, Donaghu got beat by Haleberg, but Stanford tightened up 1-5 to 45 seconds with Christina Aragon being #5. But low 19's for the top runners??? All the times much lower than the LV course which was flat and fast?
Stanford won PAC with much better results at 3-6. Colorado solid 2nd. Herbert from Wash pulled a Nico Young and just ran away at the front, hanging on to beat Donaghu and Dudek. She can be added to contender list for nats.
* yes I butchered her name. Haley Herberg!
Interesting. Their pack tightened.
Stanford women have unheard of depth . . . Oakes & Abi Archer, 2 of the team's top-7 at 2019 NCAAs are injured or not running well this year and DNRd . . . while transfer Aubrey Roberts has not run well this winter and also DNRd.
Christina Aragon came out of nowhere today, her first race since last Feb.
FastTuohy wrote:
Interesting race today, Donaghu got beat by Haleberg, but Stanford tightened up 1-5 to 45 seconds with Christina Aragon being #5. But low 19's for the top runners??? All the times much lower than the LV course which was flat and fast?
https://live.pntfo.com/meets/6886/xc-scoreboard
Stanford looks to be a strong favorite after this. Crushed Colorado and Washington, with 5 in the top 12 and a 6th close behind. If Lawson continues to return to form (each race has been better than the last) they have a great top 4 and good options at 5 and 6 to round out the scoring.
yes, good point about Lawson . . . was about a minute behind Donoghu at the FSU opener last month . . . now 37 secs back of a potential national champ . . . . but have never heard of Herberg . . . WA has been hiding a ringer :-)
And all of a sudden the predictor of this, looks spot on. I said 115 points and an easy win. I think I said this already last fall.
predictor of this wrote:
And all of a sudden the predictor of this, looks spot on. I said 115 points and an easy win. I think I said this already last fall.
Even with today I don't think it is easy, or a sure thing
and, Stanford men complete the sweep.
Men's times look reasonable for a 8k course.
Believe the women's 6k times are accurate because Herberg went out so fast and everyone else was chasing her . . . Herberg went thru 2k in 5:59. . . that's sub-15 for 5k . . . she paid for it in the end but her cushion was too much to overcome . . . will she try the same tactic in Stillwater?
Bower Man wrote:
and, Stanford men complete the sweep.
Men's times look reasonable for a 8k course.
Believe the women's 6k times are accurate because Herberg went out so fast and everyone else was chasing her . . . Herberg went thru 2k in 5:59. . . that's sub-15 for 5k . . . she paid for it in the end but her cushion was too much to overcome . . . will she try the same tactic in Stillwater?
something is going on. For the Stanford and Co Women who ran both today and at Battle Born they averaged 37 seconds fast today, and a damp golf course with some hills, vs the flats in LV. The Stanford guys also ran faster today. it was in the 70s in LV as I recall, but 50 and wet and windy today.
Bower Man wrote:
Stanford women have unheard of depth . . .
New Mexico's winning teams would have to disagree.