What are Robert Brandt's Chances of Making the Olympics?

He doesn't have the standard. And that seemed like an A+ race, better than anything he has ever run, it is unlikely he will take yet another step forward to run sub 27:30 this spring so soon.

People saying 10% or higher, if there was gambling and I got paid back $110 for a $100 bet that he won't make it, I'd take that bet. I'd be shocked if he runs sub 27:30 this spring and then finishes top 3 at the trials out of the people who end up running sub 27:30... Guys like Lopez, Shadrack, Jenkins, possibly Chelimo or Korir or Erassa or Klecker or some others I would put all ahead of Robert Brandt. If he runs sub 27:29 in the spring for yet another PR then I would bump his odds up to 20%, but right now they're barely above 0%. Right now it's looking like Shadrack, Lopez, Jenkins, and then the others I mentioned have smaller odds, but still better odds than Brandt.

albaneses wrote:

Coach watching wrote:

I give Hunter a better chance of making the team. Using IAAF scoring tables doesn't make sense. You could score higher on the IAAF tables in the 400 than any American in the 10k and not make the team because you are only the 5th best American even though you are the 7th best 400 meter runner in the world.

There are already at least 12 USA runners who ran faster than Drew in the 5k in the past couple years and hit the olympic standard (not sure how many of them were in the qualifying window). Not to mention the 2 that beat Drew in that 5k. USA is deeper in the 5k than the 10k.

If all of the guy running under 13:15 in the 5k would just run the 10k then we'd look a lot deeper in the 10k. There are plenty of guys running sub 28 that can't run under 13:20. So if all of our 12+ guys running under 13:15 that haven't run the 10k, many of them would probably be around 27:30 or slightly better. The problem is that a 27:25 isn't going to put you in the hunt for a medal, but a 13:00 at the olympics could put you in contention.

Very low chance wrote:

albaneses wrote:

There are already at least 12 USA runners who ran faster than Drew in the 5k in the past couple years and hit the olympic standard (not sure how many of them were in the qualifying window). Not to mention the 2 that beat Drew in that 5k. USA is deeper in the 5k than the 10k.

If all of the guy running under 13:15 in the 5k would just run the 10k then we'd look a lot deeper in the 10k. There are plenty of guys running sub 28 that can't run under 13:20. So if all of our 12+ guys running under 13:15 that haven't run the 10k, many of them would probably be around 27:30 or slightly better. The problem is that a 27:25 isn't going to put you in the hunt for a medal, but a 13:00 at the olympics could put you in contention.

They are different events. People like McGorty, Fisher, and Centro are speed based and already moved up from the 1500 to the 5k. They would not be as good in the 10k.

Don't count out Ryan Hill. It's very likely he will move up to the 10k with NAZ Elite. He is secretly very strong. If he can sit and kick, he has a good chance with Lopez to make this team.

Although Shadrack and Korir always show up at the National Meet.

SEAHORSE DUST wrote:

Don't count out Ryan Hill. It's very likely he will move up to the 10k with NAZ Elite. He is secretly very strong. If he can sit and kick, he has a good chance with Lopez to make this team.

Although Shadrack and Korir always show up at the National Meet.

Will he be healthy?

You are an All American moron. Apparently you struggle to delineate between citizenship of athletes.

Some of the new wave marathoners could step down and challenge.

My response might will likely aggravate Andy Ehrenberg, but Brandt's chances of qualifying for the Olympics are close enough to zero that it might as well be zero.

3-4%

Mantz slightly higher

Another good race tonight.

50%

LOL

Brandt has been racing way too much recently. He’ll be happy to get to the finish line of the finals

50% makes sense to me. He either makes the team, or he doesn't. Thus, 50%.