If Salazar vs Beardsley was on the Marathon Project course, how fast would they have run?

rojo wrote:

rhojo wrote:

This is something I find annoying about the new shoes when comparing to previous eras. The "IF" they are responders. I think that people will generally be given the benefit of the doubt as if they would've been, but we will never know. Someone above suggested that Salazar wouldn't since he had more of a shuffle in his stride. Here Rojos who statement goes on the assumption that he would've been. On the other hand, what if Salazar wouldn't have been a responder and he raced people that were in the new shoes? He probably wouldn't have won the races he did or placed as highly in others and maybe he never becomes the coach he was without the same race success.

Again we will never know.

But we can be pretty damn sure that Rupp is a responder or Nike wouldn't have gone through with the shoes. Seriously, imagien if in testing, they'd found out that Rupp didn't respond at all to the shoes but all of Jerry's guys did. You think we'd have them on the market?

What I really hate about this besides that is now we have them on the roads but not the track. That makes zero sense.

rojo wrote:

Treacle Runner wrote:

I would have liked to see prime Steve Jones in that race. Ignoring the pacers and taking it out from the gun.

I',m not sure about Beardsley but I'd say Salazar could run 2:04-2:05 in the new shoes assumign he's a responder. If he's not a responder, I think he's a 2:06-2:07 guy.

Think about it this way. Salazar was basically Ryan Hall in terms of track pbs. He ran 13:19 in college and 13:11 after. Hall ran 13:16 in college. Hehir ran 13:29. Roughly speaking they are 5 seconds a mile better than Hehir which is 2:10 in the marathon.

Hall ran 2:06:17 on a non-aded course. Salazar ran 2:09 in hily New York which is probably 2:07 high 2:08 flat on a flat course and that's without rabbits. With rabbits, Salazar is probably 2:06-2:07 which means he's basically Ryan Hall which make sense.

I mean I think it's kind of obvious that we have a lot of data points indicating 2:06 flat is basically as fast that a non-East African can run in the marathon without drugs or the super shoes.

In addition to Hall's PB being 2:06:17, the Japanese record for a long time was 2:06:16. Add 5 seconds a mile to that (which is basically eh difference in 5k pbs between Hall and Hehir and 2:08:30ish) - which is similar to Hehir's time.

So if Salazar is basically Hall, the question is how much faster would Hall/Salazar run with the new shoes. I'd say 1:30-2:30 faster if they are responders. 2:04-2:05 seems most likely.

Hall ran 2:06:17 in a year that the marathon WR was 2:03:59. So he was 2:18 off the WR. 2:18 off the curerent WR is very close to 2:04 flat - 2:03:37.

rojo wrote:

Treacle Runner wrote:

I would have liked to see prime Steve Jones in that race. Ignoring the pacers and taking it out from the gun.

I',m not sure about Beardsley but I'd say Salazar could run 2:04-2:05 in the new shoes assumign he's a responder. If he's not a responder, I think he's a 2:06-2:07 guy.

Think about it this way. Salazar was basically Ryan Hall in terms of track pbs. He ran 13:19 in college and 13:11 after. Hall ran 13:16 in college. Hehir ran 13:29. Roughly speaking they are 5 seconds a mile better than Hehir which is 2:10 in the marathon.

Hall ran 2:06:17 on a non-aded course. Salazar ran 2:09 in hily New York which is probably 2:07 high 2:08 flat on a flat course and that's without rabbits. With rabbits, Salazar is probably 2:06-2:07 which means he's basically Ryan Hall which make sense.

I mean I think it's kind of obvious that we have a lot of data points indicating 2:06 flat is basically as fast that a non-East African can run in the marathon without drugs or the super shoes.

In addition to Hall's PB being 2:06:17, the Japanese record for a long time was 2:06:16. Add 5 seconds a mile to that (which is basically eh difference in 5k pbs between Hall and Hehir and 2:08:30ish) - which is similar to Hehir's time.

So if Salazar is basically Hall, the question is how much faster would Hall/Salazar run with the new shoes. I'd say 1:30-2:30 faster if they are responders. 2:04-2:05 seems most likely.

Hall ran 2:06:17 in a year that the marathon WR was 2:03:59. So he was 2:18 off the WR. 2:18 off the curerent WR is very close to 2:04 flat - 2:03:37.

have to agree here.... wrote:

sqandrews wrote:

It is really sad that we can't answer this question. Shoes have definitely gotten better. Drugs have definitely gotten better. Maurteen/gels have gotten better, although I am not sure how much they matter. But, I don't think there is any real solid evidence supporting that training has gotten any better.

I won't make up a guess, but I love this article about the Kentucky Derby and how times haven't really improved in horse racing since the 1940s.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/thoroughbreds-are-running-as-fast-as-they-can/amp/

It's true, horses aren't getting faster and haven't for decades. Maybe a century. So, there ARE physiological limits. There will be a point at which records will never come down any more. Well, OK, that last sentence isn't literally true because of what the poster mentioned about technology. If shoes and drugs advance, so will records. That may be all we're seeing now. If training has been perfected, and it may or may not have, then a gel or drink really could be the 1 second or 0.1 second difference.

How does Salazar stack up against Rupp, all else being equal. How about Hall? Either he was quite a bit better than Rupp or the shoes don't do much. If Rupp AND his shoes are both better than Hall, then he would be minutes faster than he actually has been. So, we know that's not the case. Since Rojo's excellent points bring up Hall and his similarities to Salazar, I'll give this order of finish for the runners mentioned.

Hall, Rupp, Salazar, Beardsley.

Not sure about some of the others from earlier eras.

rojo wrote:

Treacle Runner wrote:

I would have liked to see prime Steve Jones in that race. Ignoring the pacers and taking it out from the gun.

I',m not sure about Beardsley but I'd say Salazar could run 2:04-2:05 in the new shoes assumign he's a responder. If he's not a responder, I think he's a 2:06-2:07 guy.

Think about it this way. Salazar was basically Ryan Hall in terms of track pbs. He ran 13:19 in college and 13:11 after. Hall ran 13:16 in college. Hehir ran 13:29. Roughly speaking they are 5 seconds a mile better than Hehir which is 2:10 in the marathon.

Hall ran 2:06:17 on a non-aded course. Salazar ran 2:09 in hily New York which is probably 2:07 high 2:08 flat on a flat course and that's without rabbits. With rabbits, Salazar is probably 2:06-2:07 which means he's basically Ryan Hall which make sense.

I mean I think it's kind of obvious that we have a lot of data points indicating 2:06 flat is basically as fast that a non-East African can run in the marathon without drugs or the super shoes.

In addition to Hall's PB being 2:06:17, the Japanese record for a long time was 2:06:16. Add 5 seconds a mile to that (which is basically eh difference in 5k pbs between Hall and Hehir and 2:08:30ish) - which is similar to Hehir's time.

So if Salazar is basically Hall, the question is how much faster would Hall/Salazar run with the new shoes. I'd say 1:30-2:30 faster if they are responders. 2:04-2:05 seems most likely.

Hall ran 2:06:17 in a year that the marathon WR was 2:03:59. So he was 2:18 off the WR. 2:18 off the curerent WR is very close to 2:04 flat - 2:03:37.