While certainly not a weak WR, I do wonder if the 5k WR isn't as strong as it seems on paper. The Diamond League format of circuit racing has seemed to disincentivize fast racing in favor of tactical racing. We have had years with long sub 13:00 droughts when athletes like Mo Farah were clearly capable of running significantly faster. The Paris 5k in 2012 or the Brussels 5k in 2018 are rare exceptions where high caliber athletes pushed each other, and despite of questionable pacing in both races managed to deliver very fast times. Neither of those races were record attempts, or even set up to be anything more than the usual diamond league 12:55-13:10 affair, yet guys like Barega proved that they could break into the 12:40s.
Ahmed's time trial this year was impressive, but it seems to only build on the theory that the drought in fast times over the last decade has more to do with lack of trying than a lack of ability.
If this will indeed be a WR attempt, it will be the first we've seen since Bekele was in his prime.
I believe Cheptegei can get into the lower 12:40s. But the 12:30s seem to be a stretch.
The best demonstration of his raw speed was his 55 lap kick in the 10000m in Doha, and his 12:51 5k on the road. And while both were notable, it's a far cry from the Bekele / Komen / Gebrselassie territory that he's aiming for.
And even if he is indeed in the shape to get the WR, the pacing is a factor that may very well not allow for it. A 12:37.00 is a average 2:31.4 seconds for Kilometer.
The splits for the 3 12:40 5ks in history are:
Daniel Komen (1997)- 12:39.74 (2:32.7, 2:32.7, 2:31.9, 2:31.21, 2:31.21)
Haile Gebrselassie (1998)- 12:39.36 (2:34.8, 2:31.6, 2:32.9, 2:32.8, 2:27.3)
Kenenisa Bekele (2004)- 12:37.35 (2:33.24, 2:32.23, 2:31.87, 2:30.59, 2:29.42)
Only Daniel Komen had even pacing the whole way. Gebrselassie and Bekele both had to overcome slow opening 2ks with ridiculous finishing kicks.
So Cheptegei is going to have to get even pacing of at least 5:03 through 2k. Pacing through 3k would be preferable but I doubt there's anyone up for running a 7:34 3k. If the pacing goes for that long it's more likely the WR attempt gets screwed by a slow 3k split of 7:40 or so.
Without knowing about the pacing information it's hard to make a prediction. I believe Cheptegei will be in stellar shape, but a WR attempt over a long distance hinges on more than just the physical capabilities of the athlete.