it's not meant to be exactly what you run, it's ballpark. And, i think bekele is a great display of how accurate they can be. Further, he talks about the slope of your graph (pace vs distance i believe) and how sloping indicates better speed vs endurance.
Does anybody have a link to WR marathon progression
I sub-2 hour marathon will never happen.
That's a helpful way to look at it. I say Bekele's good for 70 sec laps and a 2:03-plus.
staples wrote:
I sub-2 hour marathon will never happen.
I bet in the next 100,000 years or 1 million years it will happen.
meh wrote:
Does anybody have a link to WR marathon progression
World Record Progression
women's Marathon
WORLD RECORDS
2: 15' 25" Paula Radcliffe, GBR, 13 Apr 03, London.
2: 17' 18" Paula Radcliffe, GBR, 13 Oct 02, Chicago.
2: 18' 47" Catherina Ndereba, KEN, 07 Oct 01, Chicago.
2: 19' 46" Naoko Takahashi, JPN, 30 Sep 01, Berlin.
2: 20' 43" Tegla Loroupe, KEN, 26 Sep 99, Berlin.
2: 20' 47" Tegla Loroupe, KEN, 19 Apr 98, Rotterdam.
2: 21' 06" Ingrid Kristiansen, NOR, 21 Oct 85, London.
2: 22' 43" Joan Benoit, USA, 18 Apr 83, Boston.
2: 25' 28"7 Grete Waitz, NOR, 17 Apr 83, London.
2: 25' 41"3 Grete Waitz, NOR, 26 Oct 80, New York.
2: 27' 32"6 Grete Waitz, NOR, 21 Oct 79, New York.
2: 32' 29"8 Grete Waitz, NOR, 22 Oct 78, New York.
2: 34' 47"5 Christa Vahlensieck, FRG, 10 Sep 77, Berlin.
2: 35' 15"4 Chantal Langlacé, FRA, 01 May 77, Oyarzun.
2: 38' 19" Jacqueline Hansen, USA, 12 Oct 75, Eugene.
2: 40' 15"8 Christa Vahlensieck, FRG, 03 MAy 75, Dülmen.
2: 42' 42" Liane Winter, FRG, 21 Apr 75, Boston.
2: 43' 54"5 Jacqueline Hansen, USA, 01 Dec 74, Culver City.
2: 46' 24" Chantal Langlacé, FRA, 27 Oct 74, Neuf Brisach.
2: 46' 36" Michiko Gorman, USA, 02 Dec 73, Culver City.
2: 49' 40" Cheryl Bridges, USA, 05 Dec 71, Culver City.
2: 55' 22" Elizabeth Bonner, USA, 19 Sep 71, New York.
3: 00' 35" Sara Mae Berman, USA, 30 May 71, Brockton.
3: 01' 42" Elizabeth Bonner, USA, 09 May 71, Philadelphia.
3: 02' 53" Caroline Walker, USA, 28 Feb 70, Seaside.
3: 07' 26"2 Anni Pede-Erdkamp, FRG, 16 Sep 67, Waldniel.
3: 15' 22" Maureen Wilton, CAN, 06 May 67, Toronto.
3: 19' 33" Mildred Sampson, NZL, 21 Jul 64, Auckland.
3: 27' 45" Dale Greig, GBR, 23 May 64, Ryde.
3: 37' 07" Merry Lepper, USA, 16 Dec 63, Culver City.
3: 40' 22" Violet Piercy, GBR, 03 Oct 26, Chiswick.
=============================================================
World All Time Best Performances
Men's Marathon
WORLD RECORDS
2: 04' 55" Paul Tergat, KEN, 28 Sep 03, Berlin.
2: 05' 38" Khalid Khannouchi, USA, 14 Apr 02, London.
2: 05' 42" Khalid Khannouchi, MAR, 24 Oct 99, Chicago
2: 06' 05" Ronaldo da Costa, BRA, 20 Sep 1988, Berlin
2: 06' 50" Belayneh Dinsamo, ETH, 17 Apr 1888, Rotterdam
2: 07' 12" Carlos Lopes, POR, 20 Apr 1985, Rotterdam
2: 08' 05" Steve Jones, GBR, 21 Oct 1984, Chicago
2: 08' 18" Rob de Castella, AUS, 06 Dec 1981, Fukuoka
2: 09' 36" Derek Clayton, AUS, 03 Dec 1967, Fukuoka
2: 08' 34" Derek Clayton, AUS, 30 May 1969, Antwerp
2: 12' 00" Morio Shigematsu, JPN, 12 Jun 1965, Cheswick
2: 12' 11" Abebe Bikila, ETH, 21 Oct 1964, Tokyo
2: 13' 55" Basil Heatley, GBR, 13 Jun 1964, Cheswick
2: 14' 28" Leonard Edelen, USA, 15 Jun 1963, Cheswick
2: 15' 15" Toru Terasawa, JPN, 17 Feb 1963, Beppu
2: 15' 16" Abebe Bikila, ETH, 10 Sep 1960, Rome
2: 15' 17" Sergey Popov, URS, 24 Aug 1958, Stockholm
2: 17' 39" Jim Peters, GBR, 26 Jun 1954, Cheswick
2: 18' 34" Jim Peters, GBR, 04 Oct 1953, Turku
2: 18' 40" Jim Peters, GBR, 13 Jun 1953, Cheswick
2: 20' 42" Jim Peters, GBR, 14 Jun 1952, Cheswick
2: 25' 39" Yun Bok Suh, KOR, 19 Apr 1947, Boston
2: 26' 42" Kitei Son, JPN, 03 Nov 1935, Tokyo
2: 26' 44" Yashuo Ikenaka, JPN, 03 Apr 1935, Tokyo
2: 27' 49" Fushashige Suzuki, JPN, 31 Mar 1935, Tokyo
2: 29' 01" Albert Michelson, USA, 12 Oct 1925, Port Chester
2: 32' 35" Hannes Kolehmainen, FIN, 22 Aug 1920, Antwerp
2: 36' 06" Alexis Ahlgren, SWE, 31 May 1913, London
2: 38' 16" Harry Green, GBR, 12 May 1913, London
2: 40' 34" Thure Johansson, SWE, 31 Aug 09, Stockholm
2: 42' 31" Fred Barett, GBR, 1909, London
2: 46' 04" Albert Raines, USA, 1909, New York
2: 46' 52" James Clark, USA, 12 Feb 1909, New York
2: 52' 45" Robert Fowler, USA, 01 Jan 1909, New York
2: 55' 18" John Hayes, USA, 21 Aug 1904, London
considering we are about to enter an ice age in 5,000 years i highly doubt that.
Calculated from McMillanRunning.com
100: 10.5
200: 20.9
400: 43.8
800: 1:36
1500: 3:18
Mile: 3:33.2
2 Mile: 7:34.9
5000: 12:19
10k: 25:34
13.1: 56:54
26.2: 2:00:00
I don't see Bekele running 25:34 in the 10k, so he will probably not run under 2:00.
Snowbear did a very good analysis.
I'll do the same calculation and make one assumption.
Assuming that the marathon is run on track, and HOLDING ALL OTHER THINGS THE SAME, this is how Paul Tergat would have done his '03 Berlin Marathon WR run.
Distance:
42,195 metres
Time:
7495 seconds
Laps on the track:
105.487 which is approx. 105.5
Time per lap:
71 secs.
Tergat did 105.5 laps at a constant speed of 71 secs to run 7495 seconds or 2:04:55
BEKELE'S UNDER 2 HOURS MARATHON LIKELIHOOD:
He will have to use at MOST 1:59:59.
This translates to 7199 seconds.
For 105.5 laps, in order to cover the distance in 7199 secs., he will have to churn a 68.24 second lap.
He will have to be almost 3 seconds faster than Tergat.
Is it possible?
MY personal view is this,
Having seen this lad do wonders, with proper marathon training, I cannot rule it out. I am inclined to believe that he will do it. It is not out of the realms of possibility for this guy.
I fear I am wrong but I hope I am right.
All in all, Bekele could comfortably do a sub 2:03 run.
We haven't seen the best of Bekele yet. If Kiprop or anyone else for that matter had challenged him all the way in Belgium, I strongly believe that he would have shed of another 2 or 3 seconds. He usually wins easily with a sizeable gap that if closed by a challenger would force him to attain even better results.
(Last box is the seconds)
26:00 10K and 12:30 5k = 86 V02
does anyone know his V02 max?
A 2 hour marathoner needs at least an 86 V02 max according to the calculator.
I doubt he can run faster then 12:33 26:08 in his career
but he could prove me wrong. Probably a 2:02 marathon.
by the way; type in .8 for kilometer and 1:41 = 87 V02 max
Bet the 800 WR sticks around for another 4-5 years.
3:25 1500 is a 84
Merv's has more of these impossible numbers:
3000m . 7:05.4
2mi .... 7:38.7
5km ... 12:14.8
10km .. 25:42
13.11mi 57:09
26.22mi 2:00:00
Interesting to see the progression. In the last 40 years, the Mens WR has dropped 10 minutes. In the previous 40 years, it dropped about 15 minutes. Could it drop 5 minutes in the next 40 years? That means Bekele won't do it, but he does seem to have a better build for the marathon than Tergat does.
2hours will be run some day, but not by Bekele. He might run 2.03, but then he might never break 2.06.
[
2:00 will be broken in a Marathon, it's just a matter of...time. I don't think it'll be Bekele, and I don't think it'll be Bekele's kid. BUt somewhere down the road, it'll happen.[/quote]
the stronger the drug the faster the runner......
agnesitsmebilly wrote:
Proof that Daniels formulas are inaccurate.
or that it's about more than v-dot. it'a a big part but far from the whole story
The shorter build is supposed to be better in the longer stuff(though i have never seen a GOOD study that realy shows this).
Anyway Tergat seems to do ok, ,, particularly in the half-marathon.
were as Haile(who is a few years younger by the way), has not,at this point,done as well.
Radcliffe is also rather tall,as females go.
Remmber longer limbs have the ability to store more energy(longer tendons), with comes at slower running gaits.
Sam F wrote:...longer limbs have the ability to store more energy(longer tendons), with comes at slower running gaits.Where are you getting this? I thought shorter vs. taller equal out through compensation of all factors- stride rate, length, etc...
i mearly mentioned one factor.
for instance.
shorter levers(Limbs if you will), tend to be more effcient(a factor favoring shorter runners).
however running is a bit more dynamic than just levering yourself along. such as the ability to store energy in your tendons and release it in the next stride.
that said, there are many very good runners at a WIDE range of hieghts.
so when tou said " I thought shorter vs. taller equal out through compensation of all factors- stride rate, length, etc..."
that seems to be the case.