Worst of the COVID crisis is behind all developed nations except the USA

snerdly hep hep ack ack wrote:

You must have misunderstood my reply to your post as questioning or doubting current statistics and numbers on Covid.

If you re-read what I posted, you'll see I was was questioning your rather bold prediction about how the worst of Covid is behind developed countries. I took that to mean that developed countries (other than the US) will never approach infection rates, etc. like they have seen previously. Your thread title implies that you know something about what will happen over the ext 3-6 months (if not next several years) with respect to Covid. So, I was wondering what support you had for that. And now I've had to basically re-post my entire post, because of your reading comprehension issues (whether deliberate or not).

I predict the trendlines on Worldometer will continue their current trajectories unless nations change their approach to the pandemic.

That is not a bold prediction. The virus can be predicted mathematically. Mitigation factors like testing, mask use, social distancing, all impact the r0 number. If you modify those, then the spread rate changes.

If you look at the curves on Worldometer, you see most nations had a big surge, and then it rounded down, and then nearly linearly declined to new cases a small fraction (~10-20%) of their old new case rates. The USA never did that. They didn't get case rates substantially down, they just got them down a bit. Then opened up the economy next. That is why people are saying the USA "opened up too early." Because you had to get the virus under control before you opened back up.

snerdly hep hep ack ack wrote:

Piano_Man87 wrote:

Bank of Canada holding rates steady. New cases are down significantly. Same is true for other 1st world countries.

But the USA.. well... How is that politicization of science working out for you guys?

I'm not sure there is any science behind your claim that the worst of the COVID crisis is behind other developed countries. Who is making that bold prediction with any kind of scientific basis?

My guess, which is as good as anyone's, is that Covid is entrenched worldwide for good, and new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will rise and fall and rise and fall in most regions indefinitely.

Why would it be around indefinitely? The Spanish Flu started in the spring of 2018 had 3 waves. By the summer of 2019 it was over. By then everyone had died or was immune.

I agree the worst for developed countries may not be over but eventually it will run its course. We just don't know at what cost - both health and economic.

The whole world is utterly astonished at how the USA is navigating this. Your health care system is on the brink of collapse, case rates are going to the roof, and you can't even get your president to wear a mask to save lives. It is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.[/quote]

Accurate.

Wait until August 2020. Then we'll see how well Europe has done. They shouldn't get too smug about how badly we're doing compared to them. I think their cases will start to rise again in a week.

Part of the reason Europe is doing better now is because they did so poorly early on. Once the super spreaders have either gotten sick and recovered or died, that eliminates a large part of their infection potential. It's worth remembering that the Big 5 in Europe still have about 15% more deaths per capita than the US. Canada did somewhat better than the US. Sure, Canada (with it's 9.78 people per sq mile) is doing okay now, but it still has 2.65 times the number of deaths per capita that Texas has, in spite of the fact that the population of Texas is over ten times denser (103.2 people per square mile). Part of me thinks it is good that there has been a surge among young adults, as they will be less likely to get infected and spread things if and when schools start back up in the fall when the potential consequences are greater (more likely to spread it to others, less likely to recover, etc.). I think people getting sick in the summer are less likely to die than if they were to get sick with it in the winter. COVID isn't disappearing forever. If attempts at a vaccine are unsuccessful or take years instead of months, the only thing that will get someone through this is their immune system.

Piano_Man87 wrote:

How is that politicization of science working out for you guys?

There has to be some excuse for keeping Joe out of debates and banning rallies.