Employee #1: Weather Only Factor Preventing World Record In real,-Berlin Marathon

By Employee #1
September 18, 2009

If you ask me, the Berlin Marathon showdown set for Sunday is going to be one of the greatest head-to-head marathon battles in history. If not for 70 degree heat with ample humidity and light breezes, I'd say a new world record would almost be a lock.

Below I list a series of trends that indicate a new marathon world record is only hours away.

Duncan Kibet and Haile Gebrselassie sit at #1 and #2 on the all-time time lists. 2:03:59 for The Emperor and 2:04:27 for the bearded iPod wearing Kenyan. But personal best times don't tell the whole story.

Stat 1 Indicating WR. Geb is asking for a blazing yet intelligent first half, "I don’t want to be slower than 61.30 at halfway," says the great Ethiopian. That's perfect for a new world record, and he and Kibet are mentally and physically on another level from past marathoning legends so 61:30 does not sound insane to them. It sounds like the next logical progression.

Kibet is taking confidence from his training partner James Kwambai's Rotterdam Half Marathon last weekend when he ran 59:09. 61:30 should be fine.

Stat 2. Geb is a great fall marathon runner (see his marathon progression since 2005, below). Since converting to a full-time marathoner, Geb has been oscillating yearly. He runs a very, very good marathon every spring. Then he runs a world record in the fall in Berlin. He also runs faster every year.

Why does Geb run so fast in the fall? Remember, Geb and Kibet spend all year training in Africa. Geb in Addis. Kibet in Eldoret. May-August are the winter, the rainy season. Temperatures are a perfect 50 degrees in the morning and evening. Cooler conditions put less stress on the various systems of these marathon elders. Their bodies are ready to put in a massive effort in the fall.

Stat 3. Kibet and Geb are getting better every year. Geb's PR went down 26 seconds from '05-'06, 90 seconds from '06-'07 and 27 seconds from '07-'08.  Obviously Geb has to slow down at some point but why now? He is "the greatest" for a reason (ok, Bekele might be the greatest but looking at Geb's marathoning stats gets me in the mood to call "The G-Dog" the Greatest)

Kibet, younger and more of a marathoning neophyte after a career running half-marathons, is running only his 4th marathon. His first marathon was spring of 2008, a 2:08:33. Then a 2:07:53 in the fall of '08 before his 2:04:27 win in Rotterdam earlier this year. He has the perfect combination of seasoning and freshness. He has run enough marathons and enough lifetime mileage to be wise and seasoned, but he's only in his fourth marathon so his legs are still ready to go. Only Gebrselassie could be the odds-on favorite in a head-to-head marathon match up with Kibet. After the blow-ups for Deriba Merga, Marilson Gomes Dos Santos and a mini blow up for Robert "Mwafrika" Cheruiyot in Berlin, Kibet, Kwambai and Abel Kirui sit at the top of the marathoning pedestal right now with Geb.

Stat 4. Pace-making is extremely important for the first eighteen miles of the marathon. Kibet noted in a pre-race interview, "I need good pacemakers, like those we had in Rotterdam." After all rabbits have been exhausted, Kibet and Geb should work together for a fast time, much like Kibet and Kwambai did in Rotterdam back in April to run just one second behind Geb's old 2:04:26 WR.

Six Pace-makers will form the world-record convoy, headed by sub-59:00 half marathoner Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich. These days a sub-59:00 half marathoner gets pace-making duties. Talk about a head-scratcher. 30k will be reached somewhere around 1'27" - 1'28", possibly a new world record, and at that point it will all be left up to the fastest-ever marathoners from the fastest-ever nations Ethiopia and Kenya.

Break in the action. 4:20am Eastern time. If you set your alarm for that time Sunday morning, you'll have time to get up and turn on the computer, put on a pot of hot chocolate for your children and wife or your other housemates who will surely be eager to join you at such a pleasant hour, perhaps make some porridge and watch the last 30-40 minutes of the fastest marathon in history on Universal Sports. That means a bed-time somewhere around 8-9:30pm should still get you 7-8 hours of sleep.

Ok, perhaps you need more convincing. Well, I think I can provide even more trends hinting at imminent history-making.

Stat 5. Haile G is one of the few marathoners in history to set the world record and then come back and set it again. Another man capable of such repetitive bettering is Khalid Khannouchi, who lowered his 1999 Chicago WR by four seconds in London '02 before landing a few seconds short of again breaking the record in Chicago '02.

Most men can not come close to that kind of consistency. Paul Tergat in all of his greatness could not run the fastest times over and over (granted, he didn't run pancake flat courses every time like Haile does). Double Chicago champion Evans Rutto ran three times under 2:06:18 in an 18-month span but Haile has done that six times in eight tries. Gebrselassie, running on new marble countertop-flat, perfectly paced courses, is insanely consistent with three of the five best marathon times in history and five of the top twenty-four. If he doesn't get the record again on Sunday he'll likely be very close.

Opinion/Stat 6. [Remember, we're discussing reasons why I think, weather permitting, we'll see a world record (or two) set in Berlin on Sunday.] Duncan Kibet is really smart and doesn't put undue pressure on himself. Kibet is mentally a coach's dream. He sees Geb as the favorite and is not talking about world records. He does note the tough training he's been doing. "I believe in the training I do here in Kenya is very good training and I don't think there is any other Kenyan camp in the world that is training as tough as we are." He talks about driving out to the woods almost every day for 18 miles with Kwambai. 25 miles per day, every day since May.

He's obviously exaggerating his training, but that's smart. He's convincing himself he is the toughest guy on the planet. But he's downplaying the race saying A) he'll probably lose and B) he only wants a PB, not the world record. All this means is that when he's close to winning and close to setting the world record - say, with 5k to go - he'll be excited. He will be over-achieving.

Stat 7. 2003 Berlin Marathon. Paul Tergat and Sammy Korir battle to the wire in the greatest marathon performances in history. Both break the old world record held by Khalid Khannouchi, both take a giant leap for mankind by breaking 2:05 for the first time. Tergat wins by one second.

When I look in my crystal ball, I see 2:03 x 2 on Sunday in a nail-biting finish, though Rojo thinks I'm crazy.

Even if it doesn't happen, it's kind of fun to think about. Enjoy.