Overall: Event Analysis: Bobby Curtis Arrives
Remember when anyone with the A standard got to go the Olympics (and when the A standard was 13:28)? Not anymore.
The 5k is pretty darn deep in the US nowadays with lots of quality runners. The only thing we are sure of is who should be ranked #1 and #2. After that, numbers 3 through 10 could change based on the day. Let us repeat that, numbers three through 10 are practically interchangeable as we're sure lots of people are going to come up with arguments as to how we mis-ranked a lot of those guys.
Recent Action: Chris Solinsky ran 8:15 for 2 miles at Pre, Abdi ran 27:16.99 for 10k at Pre, and Bobby Curtis defeated Brent Vaughn at the NCAA 5k. Ed Moran also ran 18:23 for 4 miles at Steamboat.
Curtis is the big gainer this week as he enters the rankings at #5. He indicated he's leaning towards the 1500 at the Olympic Trials which we think is a mistake. He has no shot of making the 1500 team, but we think he's got a shot at the 5k team although he doesn't have the "A" standard.
Last ranking in (). Big changers with the arrows.
Don't Forget Him: (10) Adam Goucher - DOB: 2/18/1975 PB: 13:10.00 (2006), 2008 Best: NT 2007 Best: 13:31.50
USA Men's 5,000 Stats
13:21.50 Olympic "A" Standard
2008 Top Times
13:16.29 Bernard Lagat Nike 05/04 Jordan
13:18.46 Brent Vaughn Colorado 05/04 Jordan
13:23.79 Abdi Abdirahman Nike 05/04 Jordan
13:28.52 Matt Tegenkamp Nike 05/24 Hengelo
13:30.09 Jorge Torres Reebok 05/04 Jordan
13:30.25 Sean Quigley La Salle 04/18 Mt SAC
13:30.65 Rod Koborsi Reebok 04/18 Mt SAC
13:30.75 Ed Moran Nike 05/04 Jordan
13:30.95 Josh Rohantinsky, Nike, May 31st
13:31.21 Brian Olinger Reebok 04/18 Mt SAC
13:31.62 James Carney unat 05/04 Jordan
13:31.90 Scott Bauhs Chico State 04/18 Mt SAC
13:32.74 Kyle King Zap Fitness 04/18 Mt SAC
13:33.93 Bobby Curtis NCAAs
13:34.93Tim Nelson, Nike, May 31st
13:37.13 Josh McDougal Liberty 04/18 Mt SAC
13:38.47 Thomas Morgan Zap Fitness 05/04 Jordan
13:38.78 Tim Nelson unat 05/04 Jordan
13:38.89 Patrick Tarpy Reebok 05/04 Jordan
13:39.27 Ryan Bak Oregon TC 05/04 Jordan
13:39.34 Stehen Pifer NCAAs
2007 USATF Finals
1 Bernard Lagat Nike 13:30.73
2 Matt Tegenkamp Nike 13:31.31
3 Adam Goucher Nike 13:31.50
4 Jonathon Riley Nike 13:33.56
5 Edward Moran Nike 13:36.50
6 Bolota Asmerom unattached 13:38.26
7 Chris Solinsky Nike 13:39.83
8 Sean Graham Oregon TC 13:44.06
9 Ian Dobson adidas 13:45.36
10 Seth Summerside adidas 13:48.84
11 Kyle King Zap Fitness 13:49.60
12 Rod Koborsi Reebok 13:52.33
13 Matthew Gabrielson Reebok 13:53.17
14 Ryan Kirkpatrick Reebok 13:53.45
15 Stephen Haas New Balance 13:53.77
16 Andrew Carlson adidas 13:55.22
17 Thomas Morgan Zap Fitness 13:58.32
18 Scott Bauhs California S 13:59.42
2007 Top 10 Seasonal Bests
13:07.41 11 Matt Tegenkamp Nike 9/14 Brussels
13:11.93 2 Anthony Famiglietti adidas 4/13 Walnut
13:12.24 4 Chris Solinsky Nike 7/28 Heusden
13:15.16 8 Bolota Asmerom Unat. 7/28 Heusden
13:16.06 5 Dathan Ritzenhein Nike 7/21 Brasschaat
13:18.87 1rB Ian Dobson adidas 7/28 Heusden
13:19.68 5 Ryan Kirkpatrick Reebok 4/13 Walnut
13:19.92 2rB Jonathon Riley Nike 7/28 Heusden
13:20.35 6 Ed Moran Nike 4/13 Walnut
13:20.43 7 Josh McDougal Liberty 4/13 Walnut
13:23.50 6rB Sean Graham Oregon TC 7/28 Heusden
13:25.53 8 Josh Rohatinsky BYU 4/13 Walnut
13:30.07 10 Seth Summerside Arkansas 4/13 Walnut
13:30.12 2 Brent Vaughn Colorado 4/29 Stanford
13:30.49 1 Galen Rupp Oregon 4/20 Eugene
13:30.68 7 Matt Gabrielson Reebok 7/21 Brasschaat
13:30.73 1 Bernard Lagat Nike 6/22 Indianapolis
13:31.50 3 Adam Goucher Nike 6/22 Indianapolis
13:33.10 11 Alan Culpepper Nike 4/13 Walnut
13:33.24 10 Brian Olinger Reebok 7/21 Brasschaat
13:33.44 5 Kyle King ZAP Fitness 5/26 Eugene
13:33.68 4 Abdi Abdirahman Nike 4/29 Stanford
Counting this guy out is completely foolish. Anyone remember 2000 when he barely made the finals of the US 5k on time and then he came back a few days later and WON the final? He's very, very tough and if he's in it with a few laps to go, don't count him out. (He did make the final of the Worlds 5000m last year) The problem is it's getting harder and harder for Goucher to be in it with a few laps to go. He's only raced once in 2008 - a 3:45 1,500.
11. (9) Josh Rohatinsky - DOB: 12/5/1984 PB: 13:25.53(2007), 2008 Best: 13:30.95 Last Race: 13:30.95 , 2007 Best: 13:25.53
The former NCAA cross country champ won his only 5k of the year on May 31st with a 13:30. He ran 13:25 last year. The 10k is his better event on the track but he belongs in the top 10 here.
10. (8) Anthony Famiglietti - DOB: 11/8/1978 PB: 13:11.93 (2007), 2008 Best: -- Last Race: Steeples only, 2007 Best: 13:11.93
Famiglietti had a fantastic 2007 as he knocked his PB from 13:24 down to 13:11 - the #2 on the US list for the year. The problem is he barely steepled (and peaked too early) and failed to make worlds. As a result, this year, he's steepled three weeks in a row in April and thus he hasn't run any 5ks. But if he did, he'd beat most Americans that's for sure.
9. (NR) Jorge Torres - DOB: 8/22/1980 PB: 13:20.57 (2005), 2007 Best 14:05.97; 2008 Best 13:30.09
We should have put Torres down in the initial rankings as he'll be a factor if he doesn't just run the 10 at the Trials.
8. (7) Jonathon Riley - DOB: 12/5/1984 PB: 13:19.92 (2007), 2008 Best: -- Last Race: -- , 2007 Best: 13:19.92
The 2004 Olympian obviously knows what it takes to make the Olympics, but it's a lot harder to make the team in the 5k now than it was 4 years ago.
Riley was 4th at USAs last year. He also broke 13:20 for the first time, making him the 8th fastest in the US. He's yet to run a 5k so far this year.
7 (5) Ed Moran - DOB: 5/27/1981 PB: 13:20.35 (2007), 2008 Best: 13:30.75 Last Race: 13:30.75 , 2007 Best: 13:20.35
Moran had a nice 2007 as he PR'd early in the year, finished 5th at USAs and then won the gold at Pan Ams. Given his gold at Pan Ams, clearly he is a racer, not just a time trialer. He opened up 2008 in 13:30 in early May.
He ran 18:23 for 4 miles at Steamboat this past weekend and was fifth (Richard Kiplagat who we don't think would make the US Olympic team was 4th).
6. (4) Brent Vaughn - DOB: 9/4/1984 PB: 13:18.46 (2008), 2008 Best: 13:18.46 Last Race: 13:54.70 win, 2007 Best: 13:30.12
Vaughn got beat by Bobby Curtis at NCAAs but Curtis was the runner-up last year and ran a great race. Vaughn's run 13:18 this year and chased Bernard Lagat to the line. An excellent season so far for the Buff.
5. (NR) Bobby Curtis- DOB: 11/28/1984 PB: 13:33.93 (2008), 2008 Best: 13:33.93 Last Race: 13:33.93 2007 Best: 13:39.88
The runner up at NCAAs last year he hadn't chased a fast time this year and had run over 14 minutes entering the NCAA meet. Nonetheless he walked away with a dominating victory and a PR 13:33.93, running 3:00.4 the last 1200m. He's leaning towards running the 1500 at the Trials which we think is a huge mistake. He could make the team in the 5k.
4. (6) Chris Solinsky - DOB: 12/5/1984 PB: 13:12.24 (2007), 2008 Best: -- Last Race: 8:15.77 2 Mile , 2007 Best: 13:12.24
Solinsky moves up on the basis of his 8:15 two mile at Pre. A very solid time and it shows he may be becoming a guy who runs sub 13:20 consistently.
3. (2) Matt Tegenkamp - DOB: 1/19/1982 PB: 13:04.90 (2006), 2008 Best: 13:28.52 Last Race: 13:28.52, 2007 Best: 13:07.41
Tegenkamp is a very good 5ker. He just missed a medal at Worlds last year when he was 4th. That being said, his last outing in Hengelo showed that in all honestly he's probably got a way better chance of finishing 4th in the Olympics than he does in your standard European Grand Prix. In Hengelo, he ran 13:28.52 and finished 10th. Honestly, in Kenya, he might not even be one of their top 10. That's the bad news. The good news is he has a good chance of being the 3rd American under 13:00
and could be in the hunt for a medal. Also even on his off days, he's better than all but a few Americans.
2. (3) Abdi Abdirahman - DOB: 1/1/1977 PB: 13:13.32 (2005), 2008 Best: 13:23.79 Last Race: 13:23.79, 2007 Best: 13:33.68
When motivated, focused, and healthy, Abdi is hard to beat as many feel there are no US runners more talented. Need proof? Last August in New York, he pushed the great one, Haile G., in the half marathon before finishing second in 60:29. The problem for Abdi is that 5k is very short for the 2:08 marathoner. But when you are a 2:08 guy and most of the guys are 2:12 talents, you can still beat them.
Abdi was already running well this year as he won the US road 10k before running 13:23 at Stanford, but he then ran 27:16.99 for 10k at Pre, the #2 time by an American. He's ready to go heading into the Trials. The 5k is before the 10k at the Trials this year. Seems likely Abdi will only run the 10k.
1. (1) Bernard Lagat - DOB: 12/12/1974 Personal Best: 12:59.22 (2005) 2008 Best: 13:16.29 Last Race: 13:16.79 2007 Best: 13:30.73
The reigning double world champ at 1,500 and 5k. Who else did you expect to be #1? He also is the US leader for 2008. Although if there is ever proof that marks on the stopwatch are at times irrelevant, just look at Lagat's 2007 seasonal best. He didn't even hit the Olympic A standard, yet he was World champ.
WOMEN'S 5,000: Goucher Continues to Shine
USA Women's 5,000 Meter Stats
15:09 Olympic "A" Standard
2008 Top Times
Changes in Bold
14:54.29 Jen Rhines Oslo 6/6
14:58.10 Kara Goucher Pre 6/8
14:58.48 Lauren Fleshman Nike 5/31 Reebok GP
15:09.40 Jennifer Rhines 6/1 Berlin
15:19.42 Ariana Lambie 5/31 Reebok GP
15:19.57 Emily Brown Team USA/MN 05/04 Jordan
15:25.47 Molly Huddle Saucony 04/18 Mt SAC
15:26.38 Sara Slattery 5/31 Reebok GP
15:28.04 Christin Wurth-Thomas Nike 04/18 Mt SAC
15:32.94i Renee Metivier Nike 02/01 Wa Ind
15:33.05 Julia Lucas Reebok 04/18 Mt SAC
15:33.25 Kara Goucher Nike 04/25 Oregon R
15:33.88 Cack Ferrell Oregon TC 04/18 Mt SAC
2007 USATF Finals
1 Shalane Flanagan Nike14:51.75
2 Jennifer Rhines adi.15:08.53
3 Michelle Sikes Nike 15:09.28
4 Lauren Fleshman Nike 15:24.60
5 Arianna Lambie Stanford 15:38.83
6 Catherine Ferrell Oregon TC 15:43.69
7 Julia Lucas N C State 15:55.36
8 Mandi Zemba New Balance 16:06.02
9 Amy Hastings adidas 16:08.71
10 Whitney McDonald unattached 16:12.19
Renee Metivier Nike DNF
Sara Slattery adidas DNF
Melissa Cook New Balance
-- Kara Goucher Nike DNS
2007 Top Seasonal Bests
14:44.80 AR 1 Shalane Flanagan Nike
14:52.21 1 Deena Kastor Asics
14:55.02 3 Kara Goucher Nike 9/16
14:58.51 4 Jen Rhines adidas 7/13
15:02.28 3 Lauren Fleshman Nike 8/7
15:09.28 3 Michelle Sikes Nike 6/22
15:17.13 3 Molly Huddle Saucony
15:18.18 5 Sara Slattery adidas 8/7
15:22.56 8 Sara Hall Asics 4/13
15:27.57 1 Renee Metivier-Baillie
15:27.72 6 Kate O'Neill Nike 7/25
15:30.61 9 Shayne Culpepper Nike 4/13
Overall: Event Analysis:
Only 9 Americans have broken 15:00 in the 5k in history and five of them are running currently. Certainly not an easy event to be ranked in.
As a result, we went easy on the 5k runners and didn't put Deena Kastor in our rankings as she's unlikely to race one since she's already made the US team in the marathon, but if she was ranked, she'd have to be in the top 5.
Recent Action: Kara Goucher ran 14:58 at Pre to show she is ready for the Trials.
Last week's ranking in ().
10. (10) Julia Lucas - DOB: 6/21/1984 PB: 15:33.5(2008), Last Race: 15:33.05, 2007 Best: 15:52.08
Lucas took her PB from 15:50 to 15:33 in her last race. That's a good sign for her Lucas who was 7th at USAs last year.
9. (9)Sara Slattery - DOB: 10/2/1981 PB: 15:08.32(2006), 2008 Best: 15:26.38, Last Race: 15:26.38, 2007 Best: 15:18.18
Slattery was 5th in the 5k at the Reebok meet on May 31st. In that race, she ended up 7 seconds behind Lambie. She needs to get in PR shape to have a shot to make the Olympic team.
8. (8) Christin Wurth-Thomas - DOB: 7/11/1984 PB: 15:28.04 (2008), Last Race: 15:28.04, 2007 Best: 15:47.72
If you want to know why Wurth-Thomas is likely to make the US team in the 1,500, all you need to do is see the improvements in her 5k times. Four years ago, her 5k pr was 15:54. Now she's run 15:28. A 15:28 5k PB and a 2:02 800 PB. No wonder she's hard to beat in the 1,500.
7. (7) Molly Huddle - DOB: 8/31/1984 PB: 15:17.13 (2007), 2008 Best: 15:25.47, Last Race: 15:25.47, 2007 Best: 15:17.13
4th at Mt. Sac with a very respectable opener in 15:25, she then ran 31:27 for 10k. Both solid marks putting her right in the mix.
6. (6) Arianna Lambie - DOB: 6/12/1985 PB: 15:19.42 (2008), 2008 Best: 15:19.42, Last Race: 15:19.42, 2007 Best: 15:31.34
Lambie consistently gets better each year. 15:44 in 2006, 15:31 last year and already 15:19 this year. 5th at USAs last year, she should be in the hunt for the team this year.
5. (5) Emily Brown - DOB: 3/31/1984 PB: 15:19.57 (2008), 2008 Best: 15:19.57, Last Race: 15:19.57, 2007 Best: NT
Brown is having an unreal 2008 and is a ranked top 5 in both our steeple and 5k rankings. Two years ago, her 5k PR was 16:28. Now it's 15:19. More impressive, she won the Stanford race when she ran 15:19 and beat Lambie in the process. Thus we are giving her the nod over Lambie even though Lambie has a better seasonal best.
4. (2) Shalane Flanagan - DOB: 4/15/1983 PB: 14:44:80 (2007), 2008 Best: 15:17 split: AR 10k 2007 Best: 14:44.80
The American record holder at 5k and 10k can't be beaten unless she's not 100% healthy. Apparently that is the case currently as she's been having some foot issues. Plus, Fleshman beat Kim Smith who ran with Flanagan step for step at Stanford in the 10k, so if she isn't 100% healthy there is a chance she could lose. Clearly #1 when 100% healthy.
4. (3) Kara Goucher - DOB: 7/8/1978 PB: 14:55.02 (2007), 2008 Best: 14:58.10. Last Race: 14:58.10, 2007 Best: 14:55.02
Goucher ran 9:00 for 3k on ay 18th and then 3 weeks later ran faster for 5k (14:58.10 at Pre). (Jen Rhines did a similar thing 8:56 for 3k, then 14:54 for 5k). It shows speed comes around fast if you're training properly.
2. (3) Lauren Fleshman - DOB: 12/12/1974 Personal Best: 14:58.48 (2008) Last Race: 14:58.48 2007 Best: 15:02.28
She broke 15:00 for the first time at the Reebok Grand Prix and is running well heading into the Trials. Fleshman stays slightly ahead of Goucher because Fleshman got the win at Reebok.
1. (1) Jennifer Rhines - DOB: 7/1/1974 Personal Best: 14:54.29 (2007) 2008 Best: 14:54.29 Last Race: 14:54.29 2007 Best: 14:58.51
Only 9 Americans have ever gone under 15:00 and Rhines has done it each of the last two years. Based on her 15:10 and 14:54 in Oslo this year she deserves to still be #1.
We're sure we made a few errors as this is our first attempt at this. Comments, suggestions? Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org