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Day 2 Preview of 2005 USA Track and Field Nationals: Men's 5000m Final, Women's 10k Final
June 24, 2005
*Friday start lists here
*Recap of Thursday's Action (Shalane Flanagan Gets Her First Outdoor Title, Abdi Abdirahman Wins a Thrilling Stretch Duel with Meb Keflezighi)

Just like on the women's side at the USATF championships, the 5000m is the most competitive distance event on the men's side at the 2005 championships with six athletes (Tim Broe, Jorge Torres, Adam Goucher, Ryan Hall, Ian Dobson, and Jonathon Riley) head and shoulders above everyone else, competing for the 3 World Championship spots that are on the line.

Coming into the race 4 athletes, Tim Broe, Adam Goucher, Jorge Torres, and Jonathon Riley have achieved the World Championship qualifying time. Three of these athletes, Broe, Goucher, and Torres, also are World Championship or Olympic finalists. Despite the fact that Tim Broe has had foot and back injuries that have kept him out half of the last 2 years, he has been the most consistent of the three and comes into the race as the favorite. Broe has not run the 5000m in 2005, but has won the last 2 US championships at 5,000m despite having been out with injuries much of those years. Broe has run two 3000m this outdoor season where he was in contention for the win late (7:40.28 for 3rd at the adidas Track Classic and 7:41.07 for 3rd at the Reebok Grand Prix), and has only lost to another American once outdoors in the last 3 years (last year at a Stanford meet where he ran 13:35 for 5k coming off injury)

Adam Goucher and Jorge Torres both missed out on the 2004 Olympics, but both are running well in 2005, being the only 2 athletes to have achieved the World Championship qualifying standard this year. Goucher has switched from training under college coach Mark Wetmore to the Alberto Salazar coached Nike Oregon Project in 2005. After an encouraging and healthy indoor season, Goucher opened his outdoor season with a subpar 8:07 3000m at the adidas Track Classic on May 22nd. He then turned things around with a 3:57.23 at the Prefontaine Classic on June 4th, and then less than a week later ran a 13:21.13 5000m at the Victoria Track Classic. That was his last race before USATFs and he enters the race in his best form in years. Goucher was once considered the heir apparent to Bob Kennedy in this event and made 3 straight World and Olympic finals (1999-2001), and ran 13:11 in 1999. He had a thrilling stretch run with Tim Broe at the 2003 US Champ at 5000m, finishing second, and has won this event twice in 1999 and 2000, so he is the most likely candidate to challenge Broe.

Jorge Torres was a World Championship finalist in 2003 but had a disappointing 2004. Coming off injury, he was only 7th at the Olympic Trials. He rebounded nicely in 2005 with a 13:20.57 pb at Stanford. Torres problem at this level may be his finishing kick (we don't get why this guy hasn't moved up to the 10k or marathon) as he has never won a US track title, and breaking through that barrier for the first time is always difficult.

Jonathon Riley, formerly of Stanford, was an Olympian in 2004 and has the World Championships qualifying standard from last year. However, his form appears to be slightly off in 2005, as he has only ran 13:42.25 (for 5k) and 8:42 (for 2 miles) in his last 2 races. Two of his former Stanford teammates, Ryan Hall and Ian Dobson, appear ready to usurp his spot this year at the top of US 5000m runners.

Hall is coming off winning the 5000m at the NCAA Championships where he outkicked his teammate Dobson during the final stretch to get the win in a fast 13:22.32. A star miler in high school (3:42.70), Hall appears to have the speed and endurance combination (2nd at NCAA XC in 2003) to make an impact at this level. Dobson, is having the finest year of his career, with an NCAA 5000m indoor title to his credit, a 27:59.72 10,000m clocking outdoors, and his runner up at NCAAs in the 5000m. The question is how do those credentials carry over to the professional level where the top guys are at another level, and where he'll have to kick with guys who on paper are faster than him.  If Dobson had run the 10k, he would have been a shoe-in for at least 3rd in our book, but he's running the 5k as he didn't think there would be any opportunities in Europe to hit the world championship qualifying standard of 27:49.00 in the 10k.

Predictions: 1) Broe 2) Hall 3) Goucher 4) Dobson 5) Torres (That's one of the Johnson's picks.) The other sees it as: 1) Broe 2) Hall 3) Dobson)

Women's 10,000m Final
Deena Kastor
has not run a race in 2005, as she has had to deal with a stress reaction. That does not stop her from being the favorite in the race, as she is the favorite in any race she runs versus other American distance runners, until one of them actually beats her (Colleen De Reuck did beat her at the marathon last year at the Olympic Trials).

Elva Dryer, Katie McGregor, Jen Rhines are the contenders versus Kastor.

Elva Dryer was an Olympian in 2004 and ran a 31:21.92 pb at Stanford, so she is the most likely candidate to challenge Kastor. She has good speed with a 15:03 5k in 2001, but has not raced on the track this year besides her 10,000m pb. Jen Rhines has been Deena's bridesmaid often in the past, but she is running well in 2005 with a 10k pr at Stanford of 31:39.47. Katie McGregor ran a 31:25.94 ahead of Rhines at Stanford but has only run 15:51 (2nd place, 1st was 15:45) and 9:07 (for 3k) her last 2 times out.

Amy Rudolph is not going to compete after running the 5000m on Thursday but she is the second fastest American ever at this distance (only behind Kastor). After Rudolph was asked after her third place finish in the 5000m on Thursday on whether she is a 5000m runner or 10,000m runner she said, "This year, I'm a 5,000m runner."

Predictions: 1) Kastor 2) Rhines 3) Dryer

*Friday start lists here
*Recap of Thursday's Action (Shalane Flanagan Gets Her First Outdoor Title, Abdi Abdirahman Wins a Thrilling Stretch Duel with Meb Keflezighi)

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