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Rojo Unfiltered

July 18, 2004 From the 2004 US Olympic Track and Field Trials

Random thoughts I've generated over the last week.

USATF's process for submitting the 4 potential names for Sydney is off-based.  
Whether one is a "B" qualifier or not should be irrelevant.  Read more about the online petition I've started here, but after all the A qualifiers are named, then the order of finish should be honored.  Why would someone think that a B qualifier has a better chance of hitting the Olympic A standard than someone who beat them fair and square in the biggest competition of the year? They shouldn't.

That being said, it's even more stupid that the US has to submit a list of only 4 names this far out.  Can't the IAAF take a list of 6 names or something. I mean give me a break.

Thinking about what's different from 4 years ago.....
In 2000, the buzz at the Trials amongst the elite males was how Gabriel Rosa and Fila were going to make US distance runners a powerhouse in the marathon - Fila Discovery USA. What happened to that notion? So much for coaching, must be genetic. Wait, I'm a coach now.

Thinking about what's the same...
Regina Jacobs is still getting lots of publicity. Only this time it's because of a joyous occasion. She's finally been exposed as the drug cheat that most distance running aficionados always thought she was. I mean it was 4 years ago, with her mysterious last-minute pull-out in Syndey once EPO testing came out, when some of the rumours began to be more openly discussed.  I just hope that everyone who ripped into me
for asking Regina about EPO back in 2002, at least acknowledges that my questions were more than legitimate.

On the men's 1500...
Interesting to see that the LetsRun.com viewers evidently now agree with what I said in
my column earlier in the week, Alan Webb's chances of winning today's final aren't a total slam-dunk.  Prior to the Trials, 97.8% of the visitor's were saying Webb would win, now only 87.2% of the visitor's are picking to Webb to win  I agree - it's certainly not a slam dunk. 

In fact, I mean the more I play the race out in my head, I don't really see how he's going to pull it off.  I mean sure it's possible but it's hard to win big in the mile when everyone else is just sort of stalking you. Just ask probably the two greatest milers of the last 20 years, maybe ever, how hard it is to win the biggest races of their careers in a non-rabbited affair.  Noureddine Morceli didn't get the job done in Barcelona in 1992 as the overwhelming favorite (although he did win in 1996) and Hicham El Guerrouj - the current world record holder - didn't win as an overwhelming favorite in 2000.  Domestically, Steve Holman year in and year out had trouble capturing US championships.

I think Webb's best bet to win is the most balsy - take it from the gun and dare anyone to run 3:34 or 5 to beat him.  The problem with that strategy it's very risky.  Not everyone has the guts to lay it on the line in front of 20,000 fans.  Moreover, it's a strategy that if it fails can make one gun-shy for the rest of your career.

Other than taking it from way out, Webb's next best bet is to make a decisive move 700 - 900 meters in. A 55 second last lap won't win it but a final 800 in 1:50 probably will.  

So if Webb doesn't win, who will? Well coming in, I really thought 2003 champion Jason Lunn was the one to do it as he told me closed in 52.6 at last year's world's. Lunn's still has a good shot, particularly if it comes down to the last lap.  But my god, what's up with 2000 US Olympian Michael Stember? I mean the guy was running like total dog crap in Europe prior to coming to Sacramento. Shows up in his home-town and is a totally changed man.  Stember, is a bit arrogant for some, but he's clearly in his element here at Sacramento.  Staring down Webb as they came down the home-stretch.  Classic.

It certainly makes for great drama. I mean regardless of what happens on Sunday, the media will have a great story either way. If Webb wins, I think he'll do it in absolutely dominating fashion and he'll make Stember look like a fool (as well as myself) for staring at Webb and then saying after his semfinal win over Webb, "It was a good chance to sprint down the homestretch and let the crowd know what's to come Sunday (in the final). It doesn't matter - first round, fifth round - on my homecourt, I'm going to get a win." Webb will once again be a national media sensation and the darling of track and field in the US.  

If Stember wins, the local media will eat it up.  If Lunn wins, you've got an overlooked repeat champion.

It's just a great drama. How will it play out? That's why Sunday will be so great.

But basically regardless of what happens in the final, Webb's going to the Olympics which is great to see. The guy's been under an enormous amount of pressure for the last few years and has really turned things around and reinvigorated distance running in this country. Tons of people don't understand how it works, and I don't want to waste 800 words explaining, but the only way that Webb doesn't go to the Olympics would be if he 3 people beat him in the final and all 3 of them run faster than the Olympic A standard of 3:36.20.  That's not happening.

Actually the only way that would happen is if Webb took it out so hard (which is the strategy that I'd love to see but think is so risky) so that's another reason to not expect to see that happen. But then again, given the fact that Webb is virtually guaranteed of going to the Olympics, it takes a little of the pressure of.

JJ Clark (and the Clark family) is the man.
The guy coached all 3 of the US women 800 meter runners on the Olympic team in 2000 (Jeal Miles Clark (wife), Joetta Clark Diggs (sister), Hazel Clark (sister)) and this year two of the three are his athletes Miles Clark and Hazel Clark.  

Melvin Lister - What a story.
I'll be the first to admit that I'm a distance coach and don't really understand the jumps to well but what a story. The guys loses his sponsorship status, is installing stereos full-time at Circuit City, decides he wants to try to make a 2nd Olympic team, bombs in the long jump (which is the event he made the Olympics in 2000) but comes up with a 2.5 foot pr in the triple jump to break the Olympic Trials record.

Crazy. A 2.5 foot pr. That's Beamonesque. I mean that's what people sit around the track and dream about their entire lives, except it actually came true.

It's sort of like one of those hypothetical conversations I was having with one of my runners at Cornell. We were saying track would be so much more fun if a 4:20 miler could just have a really good day and open up in 2:00 for the 1st 800 (which clearly is doable for a 4:20 guy), hold on for another 60 and then throw down a 59 and run 3:59.

Ok, I'll admit it that's an awful analogy, but it's getting late (2 a.m.) and what he did is crazy.

I do have one question though. Do you think he's ever done that in practice? I always wonder if jumpers truly are surprised because it seems to me that if you were capable of going that far, you'd have done it in practice. Jump coaches tell me that's not the case but if you know otherwise, then email me.

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