Rojo
Unfiltered
July
18, 2004 From the 2004 US Olympic Track and Field Trials
Random
thoughts I've generated over the last week.
USATF's process for submitting the
4 potential names for Sydney is off-based. Whether
one is a "B" qualifier or not should be irrelevant.
Read
more about the online petition I've started here, but
after all the A qualifiers are named, then the order of
finish should be honored. Why would someone think
that a B qualifier has a better chance of hitting the Olympic
A standard than someone who beat them fair and square in
the biggest competition of the year? They shouldn't.
That
being said, it's even more stupid that the US has to submit
a list of only 4 names this far out. Can't the IAAF
take a list of 6 names or something. I mean give me a break.
Thinking about what's different from
4 years ago..... In 2000,
the buzz at the Trials amongst the elite males was how Gabriel
Rosa and Fila were going to make US distance runners a powerhouse
in the marathon - Fila Discovery USA. What happened to that
notion? So much for coaching, must be genetic. Wait, I'm
a coach now.
Thinking about
what's the same... Regina Jacobs
is still getting lots of publicity. Only this time it's
because of a joyous occasion. She's finally been exposed
as the drug cheat that most distance running aficionados
always thought she was. I mean it was 4 years ago, with
her mysterious last-minute pull-out in Syndey once EPO testing
came out, when some of the rumours began to be more openly
discussed. I just hope that everyone who ripped into
me for
asking Regina about EPO back in 2002,
at least acknowledges that my questions were more than legitimate.
On the men's 1500... Interesting
to see that the LetsRun.com viewers evidently now agree
with what I said in my
column earlier in the week, Alan
Webb's chances of winning today's final aren't a total slam-dunk.
Prior to the Trials, 97.8%
of the visitor's were saying Webb would win,
now only 87.2% of the visitor's are picking to Webb to win
I agree - it's certainly not a slam dunk.
In fact, I mean the more I play the race
out in my head, I don't really see how he's going to pull
it off. I mean sure it's possible but it's hard to
win big in the mile when everyone else is just sort of stalking
you. Just ask probably the two greatest milers of the last
20 years, maybe ever, how hard it is to win the biggest
races of their careers in a non-rabbited affair. Noureddine
Morceli didn't get the job done
in Barcelona in 1992 as the overwhelming favorite (although
he did win in 1996) and Hicham
El Guerrouj - the current world
record holder - didn't win as an overwhelming favorite in
2000. Domestically, Steve
Holman year in and year out had trouble capturing US championships.
I think Webb's best bet to win is the
most balsy - take it from the gun and dare anyone to run
3:34 or 5 to beat him. The problem with that strategy
it's very risky. Not everyone has the guts to lay
it on the line in front of 20,000 fans. Moreover,
it's a strategy that if it fails can make one gun-shy for
the rest of your career.
Other than taking it from way out, Webb's
next best bet is to make a decisive move 700 - 900 meters
in. A 55 second last lap won't win it but a final 800 in
1:50 probably will.
So if Webb doesn't win, who will? Well
coming in, I really thought 2003 champion Jason Lunn was
the one to do it as he told me closed in 52.6 at last year's
world's. Lunn's still has a good shot, particularly if it
comes down to the last lap. But my god, what's up
with 2000 US Olympian Michael Stember? I mean the guy was
running like total dog crap in Europe prior to coming to
Sacramento. Shows up in his home-town and is a totally changed
man. Stember, is a bit arrogant for some, but he's
clearly in his element here at Sacramento. Staring
down Webb as they came down the home-stretch. Classic.
It certainly makes for great drama. I
mean regardless of what happens on Sunday, the media will
have a great story either way. If Webb wins, I think he'll
do it in absolutely dominating fashion and he'll make Stember
look like a fool (as well as myself) for staring at Webb
and then saying after his semfinal win over Webb, "It was a good chance to sprint down the homestretch and let the crowd know
what's to come Sunday (in the final). It doesn't matter - first round, fifth round - on my
homecourt, I'm going to get a win." Webb will
once again be a national media sensation and the darling
of track and field in the US.
If Stember wins, the local media will
eat it up. If Lunn wins, you've got an overlooked
repeat champion.
It's just a great drama. How will
it play out? That's why Sunday will be so great.
But basically regardless of what happens
in the final, Webb's going to the Olympics which is great
to see. The guy's been under an enormous amount of pressure
for the last few years and has really turned things around
and reinvigorated distance running in this country. Tons
of people don't understand how it works, and I don't want
to waste 800 words explaining, but the only way that
Webb doesn't go to the Olympics would be if he 3 people
beat him in the final and all 3 of them run faster than
the Olympic A standard of 3:36.20. That's not happening.
Actually the only way that would happen
is if Webb took it out so hard (which is the strategy
that I'd love to see but think is so risky) so that's another
reason to not expect to see that happen. But then again,
given the fact that Webb is virtually guaranteed of going
to the Olympics, it takes a little of the pressure of.
JJ Clark (and the Clark family) is
the man. The guy coached all
3 of the US women 800 meter runners on the Olympic team
in 2000 (Jeal Miles Clark (wife), Joetta Clark Diggs (sister),
Hazel Clark (sister)) and this year two of the three are
his athletes Miles Clark and Hazel Clark.
Melvin Lister - What a story. I'll
be the first to admit that I'm a distance coach and don't
really understand the jumps to well but what a story. The
guys loses his sponsorship status, is installing stereos
full-time at Circuit City, decides he wants to try to make
a 2nd Olympic team, bombs in the long jump (which is the
event he made the Olympics in 2000) but comes up with a
2.5 foot pr in the triple jump to break the Olympic Trials
record.
Crazy. A 2.5 foot pr. That's Beamonesque.
I mean that's what people sit around the track and dream
about their entire lives, except it actually came true.
It's sort of like one of those hypothetical
conversations I was having with one of my runners at Cornell.
We were saying track would be so much more fun if a 4:20
miler could just have a really good day and open up in 2:00
for the 1st 800 (which clearly is doable for a 4:20 guy),
hold on for another 60 and then throw down a 59 and run
3:59.
Ok, I'll admit it that's an awful analogy,
but it's getting late (2 a.m.) and what he did is crazy.
I do have one question though. Do you
think he's ever done that in practice? I always wonder if
jumpers truly are surprised because it seems to me that
if you were capable of going that far, you'd have done it
in practice. Jump coaches tell me that's not the case but
if you know otherwise, then
email me.
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