NCAA Preview: Boaz will win!!!! Don't believe us? Then take us up on our bet!!!!

November 15, 2001
NCAA cross country is coming on Monday and the excitement is building.  There's nothing better or more pure in running than cross country. Runners from all distances line up together and toe the line to see who's the best (well they used to at least before the IAAF ruined things by implementing 2 distances - thank God the NCAAs haven't followed suit).  No rabbits, no time goals, just pure racing.

In terms of predictions and what not, we'll say one thing that we are certain of (well as certain as you can possibly be since there never is a true 100% certain thing in running). Eastern Michigan's Boaz Cheboiywo will win the men's individual title.  

It's a done deal.  Now calm down.  That doesn't mean we don't think there aren't other incredibly talented individuals in the men's race.  Kimani, J. Torres, Ritzenhein, Webb, just to name a few of the biggest names.  In fact, we think there is more individual talent in this race than there has been in many years.

Kimani's run 13:10 - amazing.  Torres is a proven stud and Ritz is right on his heels. As for Webb, I don't know why anything he does surprises us after last year's 3:53, but to see him kick butt and take names in collegiate xc all season long has been a real eye-opener to us. He's the real, real, real deal and we can't wait to see him on the track next year. The greatest thing we'd like to see Webb do would be to win NCAA XC (hey, we'll admit it - we've got a distance bias). How cool would that be? A miler beating all the distance guys in 12k cross country.  It would be great and very well may happen in the future, but not this year.

Why are we sure? Well, it is our understanding that Boaz Cheboiywo finished 12th in the Kenyan XC trials a while back.  If that's the case, then you can forget about it.  12th in the Kenyan Trials means you'd pretty much run away with the US professional title - let alone the NCAA title.

(And that might be fitting as we still get a ton of emails from people who claim Boaz is indeed already a pro.  We know the following: Boaz has raced a lot in Europe.  We have been in contact with an eyewitness who saw him get paid.  The question is: Did he just get his expenses covered or was the payment more substantial? We'll never probably know the answer.  But considering we know of a 2000 US Olympian who lost money in Europe last year, it's real unlikely Boaz made a killing. Moreover, it's pretty much irrelevant as he's going to be racing next Monday regardless. However, if you are a true xenophob and want to research this further, check out the following link: http://www.emich.edu/goeagles/m-cross/2001/Releases/release-9-11.pdf. Conspiracy theorists will enjoy the fact that Eastern Michigan originally had a different last name for Boaz at the start of the season (Kisang).)

People are always talking about how great the Kenyans really are but we think most people actually underestimate how great they truly are, because people often forget that most races have a limited number of Kenyan entrants in them. In the Olympics, there's a limit of 3 per race. At world cross country, there's a limit of 6.  In the Kenyan Trials, the number is limitless. Top 12 in Kenya in any track event would be great - in cross country where they excel the most, it's truly exceptional.

Case in point. Robert was at the Philadelphia Distance Run in September. It's America's fastest half-marathon. After the race, Robert took the 2nd and 3rd place finishers - both Kenyans - to the airport to fly home to Kenya. Both had just run 61 minute half-marathons. They started chatting. Robert asked them what would they be training for when they got home. They said they'd soon start training for cross country. Robert then asked them, "How good do you guys do in the Kenyan Trials? What's the best you've ever done?"  One of them looked sheepishly at Robert and offered an explanation before answering the question, "It's very, very difficult. Lots of competition." Robert assured them he knew just how difficult it was.  Finally, the answer came out. "39th."  And the other Kenyan had never even finished that high.

So Boaz will win.

How confident are we? Well we'll offer everyone the following bet.  We'll take Boaz and you get the entire rest of the field - all 200 plus of them.  If Boaz wins, you buy a Team Wejo shirt from us for $10.00 ( + $3.50 S&H = $13.50 total). We've got quite a few left and we need to unload them.  If Boaz loses, we'll send you a shirt free of charge (all you have to do is pay $3.50 for S&H). Interested? Send us an email to express your interest. Warning: You'll have one week to pay for the shirt after you lose (We'll send the shirt within one week as well if we lose. The bet doesn't count if Boaz doesn't start the race for any reason).  If you don't pay up within one week, we will post your email address on the site so that others can harass/shame you into paying. We'd press charges but the bet is probably illegal in the first pace.

After Boaz. We're not sure.

We're working on our predictions. Checking with our various unreliable sources around the country. They all are extremely biased based on where they live. All fall our Michigan sources had told us that Webb was looking unbeatable (that was of course before Boaz crushed him at regionals).  Meanwhile our Colorado sources have said J. Torres is stronger than ever and should be considered the favorite like Goucher was in 1998.

We're trying to sort it all out.  Which of our many sources do we trust more?  Check back Friday for the rest of our predictions.

-Robert (and Weldon agrees with my pick of Boaz, he just didn't write this)

PS. Actually, having just agreed to our Boaz bet, we're getting some cold feet. We're a bit worried Kimani could possibly win. I mean he won 2 years ago, has run 13:10, and is undefeated this year.  Oh well. A bet is a bet.