LetsRun.com’s Quick 2013 NCAA Women’s Cross-Country Preview – Ray Treacy’s Providence Lady Friars Are The Team To Beat

by LetsRun.com
September 12, 2013

If you’ve read our 2013 NCAA Men’s Cross-Country Preview, you know that our premise is not a whole lot changes from year to year. In the year 2013, stunning breakthroughs at the NCAA level are rare, as most runners are well-coached and training at a pretty high level before they even set foot on a college campus.

As a result, we believe that the best way to predict what is going to happen this year is to go back and look at last year’s NCAA results and simply remove the seniors.

Now, we’ll admit that most year’s there is more change on the women’s side than the men’s side. Things change more on the women’s side because it’s easier for a female freshman to make a positive impact. While there was only one freshman man in the top 30 of NCAAs last year, there were five freshman women in the top 30. On the negative side, it’s also much easier for a studly woman to completely fall off the radar due to an eating disorder.

Looking at things as a whole, there will be some big change on the women’s front as we certainly don’t expect Oregon to be your NCAA team champ and we know Betsy Saina won’t be battling Jordan Hasay for the individual crown:

LRC Oregon Wins NCAA Title As Betsy Saina Outkicks Hasay

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We think it’s very informative to take out the seniors and rank the teams based on last year’s finish and then compare those rankings to the two pre-season rankings we are aware of – the Coaches Poll and the Wood Report. For the most part, the LRC Returning rankings, National and Wood rankings line up pretty well but it’s interesting to compare all three and see where the biggest differences are.

By looking at the two polls and the LRC Returners Rankings, you have a pretty good idea of where everyone should finish in November.

The results are as follows:

LRC Top 3 Returners Team (Top 3 Score) Returners Coaches Rank Wood Rank LRC Top 4 Returners Score Top 5 2012 Finish Comments
1 Providence 38 4,8, 26, 130, 180 1 2 168 348 2 Powherhouse team up front. May be looking for a 5th but that’s about it. Without injuries, they are your winner. Return 3 from top 35 plus add FL runner-up Rocha.
2 Duke 93 13, 20, 60, 168, 188 4 1 261 449 7 Sorry, Mr. Wood, Duke isn’t #1 in the land. Lots of potential but ranking a team #1 based on Hsers is not a good idea. Random fact: Wejo once lived with Duke coach Kevin Jermyn after college.
3 Oregon 207 30, 32, 49, 93, 126 3 6 204 330 1 They were ranked just #12 based on returners but we added in Crevoiserat (34) and Zrinyi (93) transfers from UConn and they vault to #3. UConn got an Olympian (Yoder-Begley) as the new coach and still everyone bolted very quickly.
4 William and Mary 159 7, 19, 133, 169, 190, 193 16 8 328 518 21 Returning two All-Americans is a huge help and makes them a potential top 10, not top 5 team.
5 Washington 163 34, 64, 65, 117, 149 5 4 280 429 9 Potential podium team.
6 Arizona 165 12, 56, 97, 177, 207 7 10 342 549 6 Top 10 for sure for the team led by Sylvia Kibet’s little sis, Elvin. Can they win the loaded PAC-12?
7 Villanova 168 18, 68, 82, 136, 171, 181, 202 12 7 304 475 20 No way this team finishes 20th again this year. Should have good battle with old foe Georgetown in the new Big East this year.
8 Stanford 169 13, 31, 125, 151 8 3 320 3 If Cayly Hatton (#21) was still on the team, this team might be contending for #1 as they’d return 3 from top 31.
9 Texas 177 16, 43, 118, 166, 209 27 15 343 552 25 New regime is in town – top 10 seems like a stretch according to everyone else.
10 Michigan 188 45, 55, 88, 132 17 11 320 5 Michigan seems better than their #17 coaches rank to us.
11 Georgetown 192 46, 52, 94, 105, 114 6 12 297 411 12 3 at 16:14 or better. As a result, we think the coaches rank is most accurate in this case.
12 Arkansas 198 41, 72, 85, 142, 160, 175 9 16 340 500 18 Potential top 10 if they have a great year.
13 Penn State 207 33, 51, 123, 143, 150 11 19 350 500 14 Beth Alford-Sullivan’s squad has been top 15 3 of last 4 years. Potentially 4 of 5.
14 Michigan State 213 39, 84, 91, 110, 146 13 13 324 470 16 All the stats seem to put them somewhere between 10 and 20.
15 Notre Dame 214 70, 71, 73, 179, 200 18 17 (sic) 393 593 15 Wood report has them as one of two teams at #17. An NCAA coach we trust told us they are under-rated.
16 New Mexico 223 37, 48, 138, 192 15 27 415 NA 10 10th last year. Coaches have them 15th, based on returners they are 16th.
17 Cornell 224 25, 92, 107, 134 10 23 358 NA 13 We are biased on this one, but Mr. Wood is way off on this team. 10th by the coaches may be too high, but #23 is way too low. It’s really hard to not be top 20 when you have a guaranteed All-American in Sorna and a guaranteed top 100 in McMahon.
18 Oklahoma State 224 29, 36, 159, 167, 174, 212 21 14 391 565 26 Using the Cornell logic, it’s hard to see them not being in top 20 with their firepower up front.
19 Minnesota 232 57, 79, 96, 127, 141, 158, 176 19 20 359 500 22 New coach Sarah Hesser takes over with a chance to crack the top 20.
20 Butler 258 15, 86, 157, 187, 215 30 17 445 660 29 LRC returning ranking and Wood report both seem to indicate the coaches have this team way too low at #30.
21 Weber State 311 24, 140, 147, 189 24 28 500 NA 17 Mountain Region champs last year.
22 Iowa State 340 80, 106, 154, 184 26 26 524 NA 11 They are going to miss Betsy Saina as they’ve been scoring 4 versus 5 for a long time.
23 Colorado 356 103, 116, 137, 152 14 21 508 NA 24 Add in Olympian Shalaya Kipp and you see why the Coaches ranked them #14.
24 Boston College 368 62, 100, 206 25 NR NA NA 19 Tied for 4th in region last year and as a result Harvard got to go to the Dance.
25 Vanderbilt 398 104, 108, 186 20 22 NA NA 27 Two straight NCAA finishes resulted in a nice recruiting class but Vanderbilt is probably a year or two away from being really good like they were two years ago.
26 Florida State NA 6, 148 2 5 NA NA 4 This team is often on the podium but never on top of it. This year, they are starting all over though but with 3 women at 4:15 or faster and a 4th at 15:48 they will be on the podium most likely once again.
27 NC State NA NA 22 25 NA NA NR Just missed going last year.
28 San Francisco NA NA 23 18 NA NA NR Ranked 5th in the West region in the pre-season in the regional rankings.
29 Princeton NA NA 28 NR NA NR Young talent but not sure if they deserve a ranking.
30 West Virginia NA NA 29 NR NA NR 53rd finisher in team standings Lasnicki has transferred to W. Virginia and will certainly help.
Florida 24 How is a team with Cory McGee on it not ranked?
Harvard 29 31 Were very lucky to make it last year when they finished last. The good news is no one graduated.
Texas A&M 30 Newcomer Karis Jochen was 5th at NXN and FL as a prep.
Toledo 31 Linh Nguyen takes over this year after Kevin Hadsell’s resignation.

1) Providence is the team to beat.

Ray Treacy is certainly respected as one of the best women’s coaches in the land. In year 30, he has a great shot at NCAA team title #2. They are loaded up front just maybe lacking a little in depth.

2) Most under-rated team in the coaches’ rankings? William and Mary.

The coaches only have ranked them #17, but because of last year’s results, LetsRun.com and Issac Wood think they’ll be a top 10 team this year.

Saina and Hasay won’t be battling it out in 2013. 2012 NCAA Photo Gallery.

3) Abbey D’Agostino should be your individual champion.

When we looked at the 2012 NCAA results and removed the seniors, we were struck by how many of the top 10 women were seniors – six. No one who was within 10 seconds of D’Agostino returns from last year. D’Agostino is definitely the one to beat.

2012 NCAA Top 10 Individuals
1 Betsy Saina SR Iowa State 19:27.9
2 Abbey D’Agostino JR Dartmouth 19:28.6
3 Jordan Hasay SR Oregon 19:28.6
4 Aliphine Tuliamuk-Bolton SR Wichita State 19:33.6
5 Risper Kimaiyo SR UTEP 19:41.0
6 Cally Macumber JR Kentucky 19:42.2
7 Mareike Schrulle SR Iowa 19:43.3
8 Alexi Pappas SR Oregon 19:43.9
9 Laura Hollander FR Cal Poly 19:45.2
10 Sarah Collins FR Providence 19:50.7

Do you agree or disagree? Well we want to hear from you so vote: 2013 LetsRun.com Fan Polls.

But before you vote, be sure to read our men’s preview: LetsRun.com’s Quick 2013 NCAA Men’s Cross-Country Preview – We Expect Oklahoma State To 3-Peat.

Note: For the LetsRun.com Returners Rankings, we simply removed the seniors from last year’s meet and re-scored it with the same finish they had last year (we didn’t move them up after taking out the seniors). We know that not everyone is back and some people who were removed may be back with a 6th year of eligibility. The one thing we did change was moving two Connecticut-to-Oregon transfers (Crevoiserat and Zrinyi) to Oregon and removed Cayla Hatton from Stanford as she’s no longer running.

More From The LRC Vault: LetsRun.com’s 2012 NCAA Coverage
*
2012 NCAA Men’s Results
*2012 NCAA Women’s Results
*2012 NCAA Photo Gallery

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