Kipchoge can break 2:00:00 within the rules

Some well informed estimations that take into account the drafting and fluid delivery of the breaking2 attempt, say that it was maybe 1:30-2:00 advantage over a normal marathon where the rabbits draft him through 30k (these articles were featured on letsrun in the month after the breaking2 attempt, I'm sure you can find them if you look hard enough). His run in Berlin puts him at maybe 15-45s better than his breaking2 run. It's highly unlikely that on a record eligible attempt, he could find another 100 seconds. By gut feeling, is that we just witnessed Eliud at his absolute peak. Better rabbits could have maybe found him another 10-20 seconds. But running sub 2 in a real marathon, forget it.

It was "all out" in very, very good conditions. What he did was remarkable, especially for the amount of time when he was on his own, with no one in front of him.

But, dropping about 4 seconds more for every mile on a "regular course" marathon is highly unlikely for quite some time. The stars aligned almost perfectly and he was super prepared.

Monza is like a track, a big track with no sharp 90 degree turns. Comparing that to a typical road race marathon is not the same. Could he do it at Monza, absolutely possible---how could it not be as he was so close.

But running Berlin, Rotterdam, Paris, etc...and dropping another 1:40 will be quite some feat.

Sorry, I think it'll be awhile. Regardless, when he does start to slow down a tad, who will be next? Kipchoge is rare, a very rare running from form, size, drive, ability over a wide range of distances, consistent, etc...not likely to see another one for quite some time.

Monzoian wrote:

But running Berlin, Rotterdam, Paris, etc...and dropping another 1:40 will be quite some feat.

Yeah, I'm talking about another sub2, just tweaked so as to make it record legal. It could be at Monza or some other controlled environment

Everything would be the same as Monza besides the 2 things listed - making the fluids and pacing record legal

Decent points mate!

Seems like you're both missing the OP's point. Everyone gets that trying to do it on a "standard" road course (re: Berlin, etc...) would be a longshot, but the suggestion is to go after it at Monza again while eliminating the two non-compliant factors. It seems completely possible in such an environment, and I for one would love to see it. Heck, even bring in "drinks guy" to work the aid station(s).

If you wanted this to be a "legal" record attempt, no, then Kipchoge would not be allowed to "draft of(sic)the vehicle."

I just watched the race. So I'll give him the race even with fluid control

but with the caveat he missed one (crucial bottle) in the last 2k meters,

that could've cost him. Seems like he wasn't phased by it.

But those uniforms, on the pacers could have pockets sewn in them like

a cyclists jersey, for emergency metabolite control, fluid bottle perhaps.

Certainly, one of the most efficient distance runners, could work on vertical

bounce elimination, however not sure if anybody noticed his form actually

got better when he lost his pacers.

I like his pain/smile mantra. Anybody notice him chanting?

He could... but why?

He's now the WR holder with no close competitors, he will now try to get another OG without killing himself to go sub 2 in the process.

celery wrote:

Some well informed estimations that take into account the drafting and fluid delivery of the breaking2 attempt, say that it was maybe 1:30-2:00 advantage over a normal marathon where the rabbits draft him through 30k (these articles were featured on letsrun in the month after the breaking2 attempt, I'm sure you can find them if you look hard enough). His run in Berlin puts him at maybe 15-45s better than his breaking2 run. It's highly unlikely that on a record eligible attempt, he could find another 100 seconds. By gut feeling, is that we just witnessed Eliud at his absolute peak. Better rabbits could have maybe found him another 10-20 seconds. But running sub 2 in a real marathon, forget it.

pretty much this exactly. Maybe an ultra flat course and spending a ton of money on a flock of pacers that pace off of other pacers give him a shot at breaking 2:01 but breaking 2:00 would require hitting a new level of fitness. Also, in reference to the OP's original post, pacing off of a car is not allowed if this going to be record eligible.

Here's an idea: suppose a loop course could be built somewhere with a natural swirling wind current so that Kipchoge would have a tail-wind the whole way. I don't see how that would be strictly against the rules.

Doping isn’t within rules is it?

Berlin wasn't even a race, just a time-trial with some disastrous pacers, I'm still looking for an explanation as to what happened exactly to Kitwara by the way.

He could possibly break 2:01 with better pacers in a super controlled environment like Monza but why bother and "tarnish" what he just did in Berlin during a "real" race, even though it wasn't one. As others have said, no one's going to break that for decades probably so why would he risk it instead of "playing it safe" and winning Boston, NYC, another OG and why not a WC.

Now if KG comes back from the dead and pulls a 2:02 next month, well who knows ;-)

deathinparadise wrote:

Berlin wasn't even a race, just a time-trial with some disastrous pacers, I'm still looking for an explanation as to what happened exactly to Kitwara by the way.

He could possibly break 2:01 with better pacers in a super controlled environment like Monza but why bother and "tarnish" what he just did in Berlin during a "real" race, even though it wasn't one. As others have said, no one's going to break that for decades probably so why would he risk it instead of "playing it safe" and winning Boston, NYC, another OG and why not a WC.

Now if KG comes back from the dead and pulls a 2:02 next month, well who knows ;-)

This 2:01 won't last 'decades.' It might not even make it to 2020.

Unless it’s eliud, I’d say is making it to 2020.

They said the same thing before Kipchoge took 1+ minute off of the old record.

cwarcarblue11 wrote:

Monzoian wrote:

But running Berlin, Rotterdam, Paris, etc...and dropping another 1:40 will be quite some feat.

Yeah, I'm talking about another sub2, just tweaked so as to make it record legal. It could be at Monza or some other controlled environment

How are you going to get the pacing perfectly legal? They had pacers jumping in and out and the car showing them the formation to keep. In theory you might get 10-15 guys who could go that pace but are they all going to be able to keep it perfectly even on their own? Jumping in an out with a car right there is much easier than pacing it from the gun.

Are there any limitations on what sort of pacing watches they could use? Maybe you could have a light light up every 30 seconds on where they should be.

And for fluids why is every 2.5km optimal? Each time you drink from a bottle you have to deviate from your stride. I understand fueling more often and steadily but Kipchoge missing a bottle at 40k could have just as easily helped him if he skipped it completely. Fastest part of race was what he was running at end.

You don't want to take an extra bottle unless you need it.

Timm wrote:

They said the same thing before Kipchoge took 1+ minute off of the old record.

A decent amount of people I think would have said Kipchoge could run 2:02 low. He took it lower than that so now the question is with perfect conditions what else could he do?

He ran 1 half faster than anyone else ever in a full marathon and nearly did the same for the other half. But to get under 2:00 he's got to go significantly faster than both the haves he just did. Not coming close on a legit course.