12.5 weeks out from my goal race and transitioning from base building to my marathon specific training. I *did not* follow Hadd during my base building, but I did do the 2400m test today just for kicks.
I am a 35 year old male with a max HR of 195. Without knowing anything else about me, what would you estimate for my marathon time 12 weeks from now?
140 - 8:53/mile
150 - 8:14/mile
160 - 7:35/mile
170 - 6:56/mile
180 - 6:30/mile
3:30. 3:25 if you stay healthy and progress carefully.
3:07:23 if you get good racing weather
Sorry but 3:30 is a damn joke. That's like 80% of max HR. I could jog a marathon at that pace.
That feels a little aggressive, but I'll take it!
I'll go in the middle of these two and say 3:16. Would help to know Marathon experience and mileage.
Mike, I think 3:11.45 is doable.
Sorry, I didn't realize you were such a tough guy.New prediction:DNF
12weekstogo! wrote:
Sorry but 3:30 is a damn joke. That's like 80% of max HR. I could jog a marathon at that pace.
Even better! Thanks for taking the time to post twice on the thread and adding zero value.
This often talked about subject (lots of threads) estimated people run marathons at a HR between 85-90% max. So, be conservative and estimate your low end to be 85% - HR of 166. So I'm not going to do the exact math, but looking at your results, think 7:05 pace is doable. But, knowing nothing about your training, who knows... but I'll go ahead and predict 3:06 even.
Any reason why you decided to post for anonymous opinions instead of just using Hadd's own numbers? In any case your previous PRs are going to give you a better prediction than a bunch of guesses based on a single test.tldr: you are wasting your own and everyone elses' time.
12weekstogo! wrote:
Even better! Thanks for taking the time to post twice on the thread and adding zero value.
That's a fair question, thank you for a thoughtful response.
I thought maybe others less talented than "Pete" in the article might be able to share their personal experiences to validate what a less talented runner might be able to do with those numbers.
That Pete dude never did a 2400 test. And Hadd never suggested it as a marathon pace test, it was a simple way of measuring progress in developing aerobic fitness. If you want a decent test session run 20 km at about 87-88% of HRmax. If you can hold a steady pace it will be a decent estimate of marathon race pace. If your pace slows down at constant HR you may not be adequately trained for a good marathon.
I agree with the others, you recent results especially in longer races would be more useful data.
Good luck!
I initially answered based on our pace at 140 being identical, and my pace @150 being a bit faster, but your ceiling is about 10-15 bpm higher than mine (I'm 61). I would run a marathon at 150-155 most of the way I would guess, whereas you would likely be 165+. I have no plans to marathon any time soon, but err on the conservative when making guesstimates.
Good luck in your buildup. Easy days EASY!
You're right, he calls him "Joe"
And I don't have longer races. I just finished base building and have 12.5 weeks to race. I'll race 10 miler and half along the way.
Makes sense. And yes! Easy days usually about 8:30-8:45 pace.
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