2016 NESCAC Cross Country

I share your excitement, but it's not even June yet. We still have track nationals to get through. Let's hold off on the predictions for now, ok?

Oh, who am I kidding,

Luke 'Grumpy' O'Connor trips on the starting line at NESCAC's and loses the title for Tufts.

Timmy Tickles joins a travelling folk band halfway through the season.

Mo 'Will never play for Arsenal' Hussein gives up his running career and joins the Leicester City development squad.

Steven '2014 ECAC Champion' Lucey returns to his former glory and retakes the title, supplanting Todd Ford as the King of the ECAC.

Peter 'Brother of Jeff' Hale discovers that his patela tendons are made of string-cheese.

Noah Chilliams joins Tickle's band

David 'The Return of the King' Chelimo takes the NESCAC individual title

Silas 'Beastman' Eastman hunts down and devours T-Bear

Jamie Norton, who runs the mile in 4:06, will destroy everyone

Bump now that track has ended.

Luke and Tim looked very solid in their respective events. They certainly improved from indoor nationals.

With these two at the helm, Tufts is going to put up a strong challenge for the NESCAC title.

My early predictions for NESCAC's:

1.Tufts

2. Williams

3. Colby

4. Amherst

5. Middlebury

6. Bates

7. Bowdoin

8. Wesleyan

9. Connecticut College

10. Hamilton

11. Trinity

Your Tufts bias is showing. Other than Luke and Tim, Tufts has very few proven runners returning. A couple 15:20-30 freshmen, a couple 3:57-8 freshmen, and that appears to be about it. Maybe they have really good recruits, but so do most NESCAC schools. Amherst, by contrast, has Hussein, who will almost certainly be NESCAC champion, in addition to a bunch of underclassmen right around 15:00 and 31:40. They're certainly a team on the rise and did very well last year, and don't lose anyone huge but Crowley. Colby, meanwhile, has arguably a better 1-2 punch than Tufts in the form of Eastmann and Chelimo, who I understand is coming back next year. With Bijan gone, Williams probably will flounder, but I don't think Tufts is the school to pick up the pieces.

Predictions:

Amherst

Colby

Tufts

Wesleyan

Williams

Who cares

Don't sleep on Hamilton. They punched up last year, but now they should be more confident.

Whoever started this thread last year did a really good job delineating the teams, but I'll try my hand at it. I'll pick a top 3, in no particular order.

Amherst:

-Lose Crowley, a major low stick, and Seelaus, a solid varsity runner.

-Still have Mo, who is almost certainly 1 point at NESCACs and at worst 3 points.

Top returners:

Mohamed Hussein '18: 24:43 at NESCAC, 30:03 10k this season

Raymond Meijer '18: 25:21 at NCAA's, 14:59, 31:35 this season

Craig Nelson '18: 25:48 at NCAA's. injured indoors, 14:57, 31:30 this season

Kevin Connors '17: 25:53 at NCAA's. 4:13 mile indoors, injured outdoors

Runners to look out for:

Cosmo Brossy '19: 15:02, 31:41 this season after 25:57 8k in the fall, top NESCAC frosh?

Tucker Meijer '19: top NESCAC frosh in XC, 25:55 at NCAA's

Amherst was in position to win the Little Three, NESCACs, and be the top NE school at NCAAs last year. They performed very well until NCAAs. They don't lose that many top guys, although a low stick in Crowley will hurt them. This could certainly be the year Amherst wins the NESCAC and performs to their huge ability.

Tufts:

-Lose Curley and Traester, two solid varsity runners

-Still have Nichols and O'Connor, a VERY good 1-2 punch to rival any NESCAC team

Top returners:

Tim Nichols '17: 24:46 for 19th at NCAAs, 14:34, 30:12 this season. 6th at NCAAs in the 10k in an absolutely brutal race.

Luke O'Connor '17: 24:43 for 3rd at NCAA NE Regionals, 14:28, 9:02 steeple this season, 4th at NCAAs in the steeple

Ty Enos '18: 25:21 at NCAA NE Regionals, injured for indoor and outdoor?

Runners to look out for:

Christian Swenson '19: 25:35 at NCAA NE Regionals, 3:57, 8:33 1500 and 3000.

Dylan Jones '19: 7th at ECACs in 26:59 (Williams' course), 32:21 10k at NESCACs (2nd frosh)

Tufts will probably get guys out of the woodwork, and put on a good performance, but on paper they don't look all that troublesome outside of their 1-2 punch. If they can string together 3 guys at 25:15 or so, however, in addition to Nichols and O'Connor, they're a threat to run away with NESCAC.

Williams:

-Lose Bijan Mazaheri, a top NCAA runner, as well as Todd Ford and Kyle Kistinger, two very good varsity runners

-Still have 5 of their top 8, including last year's 16th NCAA finisher Peter Hale

Top Returners:

Peter Hale '17: 24:42 at NCAAs, 8:14 3k and 14:45 5k indoors (4th in NCAA 3k), mostly injured outdoors

Ben Decker '18: 24:51 at NCAA NE Regionals, 14:52, 31:22 this season

Noah Williams '17: 25:06 at NCAAs, injured or abroad for track?

Griffin Colaizzi '18: 25:25 for 9th at NESCAC, 8:20, 14:47 this season

Runners to look out for:

Liam Simpson '18: 25:42 at Paul Short, 26:25 at ECACs (1st, Williams course), 8:28, 14:45 this season.

Austin Anderson '19: 26:30 at Paul Short, 15:01 5k this season, top NESCAC frosh in 5k

Williams loses 3 solid guys including Mazaheri, but makes up for it with a stacked team, including an ascendant Simpson. Williams generally brings in top recruits, although last year was a little lackluster for XC. Decker or Hale could contend for the NESCAC title, and if they lack for a truly dominant 1-2 punch, Williams has very solid runners through their 5th returner. Williams can definitely defend their NESCAC title.

Middlebury, Colby, and Wesleyan can all be up there as well. Wesleyan came on super strong at the end of the season to be the second NESCAC team at NCAAs. They graduate most of their guys, but have really proven they can be good when it counts. Colby, should they get back Chelimo, has a 1-2 punch to rival or even beat Tufts', and with their own depth could be right back where they were two years ago. Middlebury has great depth and good freshmen, and if they just get a little more top-end talent also could certainly be a threat to steal NESCACs. I think the three teams I listed above are a little more proven, but any of these three teams could beat any of those. Maybe when I have more time I'll fully list them.

Looking at the Williams lineup that has been posted here (I haven't verified that they are all returning) they look like they will be even stronger than last year. Peter Hale is a low stick. Noah Williams finished 40th last year and is and should contend for All American. Add in 3 14:45-14:50 sophomores and a 15 flat freshman and they look scary.

Tim Nichols and and Luke look strong but they are not on Hale's level and there is no way they can make up for the number of guys that Williams can put in front of their 3rd. If you think Tufts is going to win at this point in the season, you probably go to tufts.

I think the only team that could challenge Williams is Amherst but things are going to have to go VERY VERY right for them. Amherst has one 15-flat guy for every 14:50 guy Williams has. And Williams has a more of them. It might come down to how much those 15-flat freshmen can improve.

Tufts also has an incoming frosh from Kenya, currently training under Brother Colm O'Connell (Rudisha's coach) in Iten.

He may well be an immediate impact recruit.

Williams appears to have talent on paper, but they are going to have to re-create the magic of last year.

Tufts, however, has the talent they need NOW:

1. Tim Nichols - AA, should be top 20 next year.

2. Luke O'Connor - AA, can definitely run a faster 3k when the barriers aren't there.

3. Mitchell Black - Will be training at the International Space Station this summer while taking the lead on NASA's mission to find Amherst's baton.

4. Ben Wallace - Brother of Rasheed, who is a talented basketball player.

5. Jamie Norton - Currently in 4:06 shape.

People to watch out for:

6. Michael Curley - Seeded 14:10 at BU Valentine this winter. Crazy potential. Could be seeded to beat Ian Lamere next November.

Amherst will simply be stronger than Williams next year. Who does Amherst lose? Crowley, their number 2; Seelaus, their number 6? Whereas Williams loses Bijan, 1, Ford, 3, and Kistinger, 7. Considering how close they were to each other last year, this has to tip the balance in favor of the ______ of Amherst.

ConnorCallum wrote:

Amherst will simply be stronger than Williams next year. Who does Amherst lose? Crowley, their number 2; Seelaus, their number 6? Whereas Williams loses Bijan, 1, Ford, 3, and Kistinger, 7. Considering how close they were to each other last year, this has to tip the balance in favor of the ______ of Amherst.

Selaus was consistently in the 3-5 spots for Amherst all year. Big loss for them, since the guys who need to step in the scoring 5 to replace him and Crowley are either very young or have an inconsistent race record during cross.

Amherst will be very good next year with Hussien the low stick and a solid pack, but Williams is clearly the team to beat on paper. Anyone who thinks otherwise is engaging in wishful thinking.

Word on the street is that Williams is bringing in another really talented class of kids who got rejected from their state schools

Wanna know how you know the WIAC is gunna kick the crap outta the NESCAC this year? Cause the WIAC was too busy running at nats when this thread was started to be thinking about cross country rn.

wiac uberalis wrote:

Wanna know how you know the WIAC is gunna kick the crap outta the NESCAC this year? Cause the WIAC was too busy running at nats when this thread was started to be thinking about cross country rn.

Yeah man!! Everyone in the WIAC was at nationals when this thread was created, including JV, injured guys, and alumni!! That totally makes sense!!!!!!!11!11

It's honestly incredible that Tufts and Amherst can compete with Williams with the difference in recruiting standards. I can't believe the NESCAC hasn't restricted Williams' recruiting yet.

Where is this perception that Williams has low academic standards coming from?

Toast

The school itself has high academic standards, it's the fact that B student-recruits frequently get into the school.

Do they? Do you have any evidence? Especially that this happens at Williams more than at, say, Tufts and Amherst?