Ryun couda been in low-1'40 shape in '67

mostly agreed. Probably more around 1:41.0 but definitely couldve been much faster that he was.

I absolutely agree. Ryun never teached his potential in the 800 or the 880. If he could have run paced races in Europe in 1967, I'm sure he would have run 3:47 in the mile and 1:41 in the 800.

What are you smoking?!? Im a Ryun fan, but there is no way in the world he could have run 1:40. As it is Juantorerna is the closest in style to Rudisha. Simply because of his 400/800 ability. While Coe incorporated the mile. But even then, if ryun were on todays standard, no he would be at the best of a 1:42.

Why don't you provide evidence that a "dry dirt track/synthetical track" will provide *insert random value attained from speculation here*. Ryun is a great runner, one of the greatest of all time. But who cares what he COULD have done? One of the reasons he's so great is because of what he accomplished in HIS time. Surely he would be a contender now, but there is no EVIDENCE, there is no solid proof that he would be running those times now. So stop b**ching about it. AT LEAST half your predictions are wrong, you have no right to be calling people idiots or morons. Just because you're right every once and a while doesn't make you some kind of genius. You were a whole minute off in your 10,000 prediction, there is no "line of fit" BS that shows Wilson Kiprop could run 26:30 unless he runs 26:30 or anywhere in that ballpark. I don't care what he ran at altitude. Shut your mouth till you actually get sh*t right, k?

Mike Honcho wrote:As it is Juantorerna is the closest in style to Rudisha

moron

when you show me where caballo broke the 1500/mile wrs, then post again

Well put! I couldnt agree more!

all this would have, could have is worthless speculation.

He didn't.

Same as the wind and altitude recalculation, and 'track adjustment' of people's times.

None of matters.

Worthless bs from pompous people.

Kip Keino must have been a 1:37 man then...

I don't know what time disparity there might be between running on cinders or clay as compared to Mondo, however, I have run on the former as well as the early synthetic tracks (especially when Penn Relays first installed one). No one who has done such could deny that there was a "significant" difference (I ran my best 880 HS split by 3 seconds at Penn). Ryun's 3:33.1 would have been faster--period. How much faster, I can't say. On one other matter, some might say Ryun did not have great leg turnover. Well, I remember a USA v. West Germany dual meet held over there, when Bodo Tummler pulled up on Ryun in a 1500. Ryun blasted away so fast that--and this is 45 or so years ago, but I'll never forget it--Track & Field News' comment was that it was as if the screaming German fans "developed lockjaw," for dead silence replaced the loud roar.

And Keino ripped Ryun a new one at Mexico City.

"Usually" being the key word. I've seen some truly terrible hand times from 4x400s before, so would want to see more 400s from Ryun before declaring him a low 45 400 runner.

For someone who harps on about statistics, you're awfully keen on extrapolating from 1 data point.

because as college kid he woud only likely run 400 on a relayyou think this looks embellished ???http://kuhistory.com/articles/ryuns-run/

On April 23 of that year, with his 19th birthday less than a week away and storm clouds gathered overhead, Ryun took to the rain-soaked track at Memorial Stadium and shattered the 12-year old Kansas Relays mile record by more than seven seconds. The KU prodigy admitted that the wild cheering of the unexpectedly large crowd “spurred him on” to the fifth fastest mile in American history. His time of 3:55.8 represented the best time anyone in the world had yet recorded that year.

Later that day he anchored the freshman mile relay team for KU and despite receiving the baton 20 yards behind the leaders reeled them in with a 46.9-second quarter-mile to give his team the victory

i'm offering ryun of '67

45.00 - 45.50

&

3'24 - 3'30

the lines of fit will work for any guy ( they work for hicham/wang/paula/komen/ethiopians/etc so i don't see any reason not for ryun )

45.50 with

3'30 ->1'42.01

3'29 ->1'41.73

3'28 ->1'41.45

3'27 ->1'41.17

3'26 ->1'40.89

3'25 ->1'40.61

3'24 ->1'40.33

45.25 with

3'30 ->1'41.77

3'29 ->1'41.50

3'28 ->1'41.22

3'27 ->1'40.94

3'26 ->1'40.66

3'25 ->1'40.38

3'24 ->1'40.10

45.00 with

3'30 ->1'41.54

3'29 ->1'41.26

3'28 ->1'40.98

3'27 ->1'40.70

3'26 ->1'40.42

3'25 ->1'40.14

3'24 ->1'39.86

i have no hesitation in offering a low-1'40 for him in '67 as i believe he was in 3'24 shape in '67

Coulda, woulda, shoulda...but he didn't, so it really doesn't matter.

Wouldn't have had a Rudisha to pace him through, oh, 800 meters.

Ventolin, you provide some great analysis on potential times, many of which are very close. However, I can't imagine Jim Ryun going low 45's in an open 400 meters on a synthetic track in 1967. A 46.9 440 yard split at the end of a meet where he ran 3:55 mile is evidence of his excellent speed, but doesn't provide enough evidence to even assume sub-46 open 400.

46.9y = 46.65 400 meter split

46.65 split = 47.40 open 400 meter (hand)

47.40 open 400 meter (hand) = 47.54 open 400 meter (auto)

So basically 2.0-2.5 seconds if a synthetic track and fresh. Sounds optimistic. If he was really that fast, given his 3:51, I would expect something better than the 1:44 880y at Terre Haute (what do you think that was worth for 800 meters synthetic?)

ventolin^3 wrote:

because as college kid he woud only likely run 400 on a relay

you think this looks embellished ???

http://kuhistory.com/articles/ryuns-run/

On April 23 of that year, with his 19th birthday less than a week away and storm clouds gathered overhead, Ryun took to the rain-soaked track at Memorial Stadium and shattered the 12-year old Kansas Relays mile record by more than seven seconds. The KU prodigy admitted that the wild cheering of the unexpectedly large crowd “spurred him on” to the fifth fastest mile in American history. His time of 3:55.8 represented the best time anyone in the world had yet recorded that year.

Later that day he anchored the freshman mile relay team for KU and despite receiving the baton 20 yards behind the leaders reeled them in with a 46.9-second quarter-mile to give his team the victory

That link reads like the opening to a novel. A lot of embellishment.

There is no way of measuring in hindsight how wet the track was and no way of calculating what difference it would make to the time. Yet you generously offer 0.9.

You say initially he ran a 46 leg, which you then give as 46.9. In T&FN at the time and in reference books I have, that leg was given as 47.0.

It would have been hand-timed, which gives a faster time than electrical by 0.2. Without any video archive there is no way of ascertaining how accurate the time keeper was. It could have been an electric time of 47.2 or even slower.

It was a relay so he had a rolling start. For this you need to add 0.5 -0.7.

Split the difference and you get 47.8.

Take off 0.3 for it being 440 and it gives 47.5 for 400m.

You then give 1.0 conversion from dirt to synthetic. Again, no scientific evidence supports this. Certainly the world's top 400m runners in the 60's didn't all improve their pbs by 1.0 sec when moving away from dirt to synthetic tracks. 800 guys din't improve their pbs by 2.0, Milers by 4, etc.

So no evidence that its worth a second faster.

Even being v. generous, it's worth 46.5 max. And this was the same season he ran his fastest 800m, on synthetic, in 1:44.3. Again, hand timed and more likely 1:44.5 electronic. There are many athletes who run their fastest 400s as teens (Ovett) and it doesn't follow that as your 1500 pb improves, so does your 400m. There is nothing to go on as evidence that he was able to run faster over 400 or 800 in 67 compared to 66, except your dreams.

And it was a week before he turned 19, not 17 as you previously alluded to.

Only a fantasist like yourself can make a 46.5 into a "45 low"

If Ryun felt he was in 45 low and 1:40 shape in 67 then he'd have had a good go at it. He didn't.

I'd give a peak Ryun in 67 around 1:43.0 on a synthetic track.

Dr. Pepper wrote:

Ventolin, you provide some great analysis on potential times, many of which are very close. However, I can't imagine Jim Ryun going low 45's in an open 400 meters on a synthetic track in 1967. A 46.9 440 yard split at the end of a meet where he ran 3:55 mile is evidence of his excellent speed, but doesn't provide enough evidence to even assume sub-46 open 400.

46.9y = 46.65 400 meter split

46.65 split = 47.40 open 400 meter (hand)

47.40 open 400 meter (hand) = 47.54 open 400 meter (auto)

So basically 2.0-2.5 seconds if a synthetic track and fresh. Sounds optimistic. If he was really that fast, given his 3:51, I would expect something better than the 1:44 880y at Terre Haute (what do you think that was worth for 800 meters synthetic?)

Good analysis.

Terre Haute was a synthetic track when Ryun ran a hand timed 1:44.3 in 66.

Ignore what Ventolin says about asphalt. It listed by the IAAF as the "first 800m record on a synthetic track".

So it was worth 1:44.3.

Ryun trained for the mile and also had great speed. I can imagine throwing his 1967 form into world class competition and today's tracks and running 1:42 and 3:45 for the mile. I doubt low 1:40. That's a big stretch.