Mary learnt from the mistake of NY, and changed a little bit her training. She is coached by Gabriele Nicola, my follower from several years (we are from the same town, Turin, and he is in Iten with me), who brought a new organisation and new mentality in Kenya about female athletes. He started working with Mary after her motherhood, having the goal to increase volume and intensity of training. Last year he worked with two fixed days (Tuesday and Friday) for the workouts, due to the difficulty to organise a big group in individual way, and many times it was not possible to define the best personal training, because, if an athlete moves to greater specific intensity (that is our final goal), needs also to use the right recovery, that depends on personal situations.
This year, being Olympic year, the plan was to have care about Mary on individual basis, and this type of technical organisation worked very much better. So, I think she can win Olympic, because Gabriele doesn't have any other important athlete to follow in the next period, and can concentrate all his attention in Mary's preparation.
About Florence Kiplagat, I knew she was not in her best shape for running a marathon. She had a very good training during the last two months, but last year, after winning Berlin, had personal problems that disturbed her a lot in the next 3 months, having very little training.
She was able to recover her speed, but had a clear lack of endurance (we went for 3 long runs only, and the last only was really ok, while her workouts on track were very good), and I waited for some problems after 35 km.
So, I know her talent is very high, but honestly there were no reasons for putting her in the Kenyan team, replacing Prisca Jeptoo that won silver medal in WCh and beated her in the direct challenge. But you can wait for something very good at the end of the season....
Before London, I have Shobukhova as my clear favourite. This for her ability in the final : 6'36" in the last 2195m 3 years ago, and 6'52" last year. But Mary finished in 6'51" in London, and after 5 km in 15'45", with an average in the last 12,195m of 3'10"5 per km, and frankly I don't think easy, also for the best Shobukhova, running the second half in 1:07:44....
For that reason I'm optimistic that both the titles can go to Kenya. And, if this happens, Iten can be the town of the medals in Marathon (in Iten there are Mary and Edna, like as Wilson and Abel, and Moses came back Eldoret from Ngong), confirming that is the "Town of Champions".