Oklahoma State recruits

Top frosh is Kirubel Erassa (4:07 mle, 8:56 3200)

http://rise.espn.go.com/track-and-xc/Iframe.aspx?i=/collegepicks_no_add.jsp?sort=colleges&seasonyear=2010

Based on the Dyestat boards they have three bangers coming.

Matt McElroy- 2nd at Footlocker, Kirubel Erassa- 8th at Footlocker and 14:19-4:07 indoor double, Shane Moskowitz- 9th at Footlocker. Those three alone make an amazing class so whoever else they have coming is a bonus.

Shane Moskowitz I believe got 11th as a Junior and was sick for senior year. Otherwise he likely would have been top 5.

Who does Oklahoma State have coming in to help defend its cross country national championship?

Defend its cross country national championship?!? You have got to be kidding. Recruiting class looks OK but I doubt any of them break top 100 at NCAAs.

OSU will probably be top 8 as always but defending their national title just isn't in the cards. They will do well to be top five.

Smith may not be the greatest coach but they have WAY too much talent in addition to those recruits. I doubt that he could screw that up. They did not run very well last year but still won. OSU will win with NAU or Stanford likely second.

top 8??? They have three top 10-15 type runners. If they have two guys in the top 50 (team score) and they are a trophy team.

Top 15

German Fernandez- 11th JR WXC, 3:55, 13:25

Colby Lowe- NCAA Nationals 10th last year, 13:42

Girma Mecheso- NCAA Nationals 16th and 24th, 28:26

Top 50 (team score)

Tom Farrell- 3:42, 7:58

Johnathon Stublaski- 3:42

Ryan Prentice- 14:16 as a frosh

Sean Fleming- 14:00

Kirubel Erassa- 4:07, 14:19 in HS

Matt McElroy- 8:56, 14:28 in HS

Dyestater wrote:

top 8??? They have three top 10-15 type runners. If they have two guys in the top 50 (team score) and they are a trophy team.

Top 15

German Fernandez- 11th JR WXC, 3:55, 13:25

Colby Lowe- NCAA Nationals 10th last year, 13:42

Girma Mecheso- NCAA Nationals 16th and 24th, 28:26

Top 50 (team score)

Tom Farrell- 3:42, 7:58

Johnathon Stublaski- 3:42

Ryan Prentice- 14:16 as a frosh

Sean Fleming- 14:00

Kirubel Erassa- 4:07, 14:19 in HS

Matt McElroy- 8:56, 14:28 in HS

Look folks it's just not gonna happen. I like OSU, celebrated when they won last year and wish them all the luck in the world.

But Stublaski came in 123 last year (team score) and it was not a bad race for him. That's just how good/bad he is. Prentice has made virtually no progress in two years at OSU and did not run for them at Nats last year because he was behind Stublaski. Fleming has not been improving either and he too did not run because he was behind Stublaski. Tom Farrell is a very good miler. But at 10k he is out of his zone. McElroy and Erassa? Do you seriously think they will be anywhere near top 50? If so you are delusional.

A reasonable expectation is:

Fernandez - BIG wild card - could be 1, could be DNS

Lowe - Pretty consistent. Unlikely to match his run from a year ago when he had Vail to coach him all season and pace him at Nats. - 15 seems reasonable

Mecheso - Another BIG wild card - is he even running at all? Could be top 15. Could just as easily be DNS

Farrell, Stublaski, Prentice... One has a breakout race and comes in at 80, others over 100 (just as Stublaski was last year).

Reasonable expectation: One of Fernandez, Mecheso starts and does well (let's assume that GF dominates) and the other is a DNS. Lowe at 15. Leaving three more scorers not really low - Let's say 80, 120, 130.

Total score = 1 + 15 + 80 + 120 + 130 = 346. Last year this would have placed them at #8. So, top 8 is pretty optimistic, top 5 is a hope and a prayer, top 3 just plain aint gonna happen.

Someone pull this thread up in late November and we'll see. But if you are expecting much more from OSU than what is laid out here then you are using your heart rather than your head to think about their chances.

Championships are generally won/lost with runners #4 and #5.

OK State's #4 returner came in 123 last year

"Contenders" ranked according to score of #4 returner from a year ago:

1 Oregon - 51

2 NAU - 62

3 Colorado - 66

4 Oklahoma - 82

5 Stanford - 93

6 Alabama - 94

7 Iona - 100

8 Virginia - 105

9 Wisconsin - 114

10 OK State - 123

11 Syracuse - 132

12 Providence - 142

13 Iowa State - 143

14 Arizona State - 154

15 W&M - 167

16 Portland - 177

17 BYU - 186

18 Washington - 190

19 Villanova - 194

I doubt OK State will get top 8.

OSU always get Jeff Arnier, a 9:06 guy.

So they have around 4 solid recruits coming in, expect at LEAST one to make some big steps forward.

They do have a strong top 3, and potentially #4-#5 can be as well.

Added in the rest of the returning teams to your list. Draw your own conclusions -- but maybe your evaluation method isn't all that useful....

oops I messed one up. Put Duke at 14th with a 4th returner at 149th place. Others I think are right.

Doesn't matter -- my point is, I'm not sure I'd buy that list being close to the final places this november. Too many variables, new impacts, etc.

german and lowe will be top 5 for sure

girma will be top 15

tom farell is training hard and i think he has potential for top 25

now, fill in 1 more person in the top 50 and they will win.

I think it is really unfair for programs like these (placing all 12.6 scholarships in xc) going against the programs trying to do both xc and track. Much more respect for programs like Oregon, Wisconsin, FSU, Minnesota, Ohio State, ND, etc. who

Lowe is no guarantee for top five, and Girma virtually disappeared during track. Potential for top 25 doesn't mean anything. There are 60 guys who could finish between 15-25. I think they have a shot to win, everyone does at this point, but what matters is the actual season.

they also have a kid coming in from missouri, if you get my drift.

riley stops wrote:

Lowe is no guarantee for top five, and Girma virtually disappeared during track. Potential for top 25 doesn't mean anything. There are 60 guys who could finish between 15-25. I think they have a shot to win, everyone does at this point, but what matters is the actual season.

Fernandez has been nowhere the last two years in cross country.

This year his track season was non existent, so his cross country will be worse, if he competes at all.

Most likely, he is not going to run.

Neal Smith, 4:02 mile

11th place at World Junior Cross in 2009--nowhere???????

J.R. wrote:

riley stops wrote:

Lowe is no guarantee for top five, and Girma virtually disappeared during track. Potential for top 25 doesn't mean anything. There are 60 guys who could finish between 15-25. I think they have a shot to win, everyone does at this point, but what matters is the actual season.

Fernandez has been nowhere the last two years in cross country.

This year his track season was non existent, so his cross country will be worse, if he competes at all.

Most likely, he is not going to run.

Thanks for filling in.

I agree with you that this is not nearly 100% accurate as a predictor. However, I would be willing to bet that it is far better than the emotion-based predictions of 99% of the LRC crowd.

Looking specifically at OK State, it is hard to see them beating more than a couple of the schools ranked above them on this list. Of course, you never know until they race - it could be that they have everyone 100% healthy all year and 2 "new" guys have huge breakout seasons. I just wouldn't bet on it.